Red Wings Brass Believes This Will Be An Extended Rebuild

[Gniwder 168]

https://podcast.sportsnet.ca/31-thoughts/trade-deadline-wrap-up/

Friedman talks about it in his podcast above.

Yzerman and Co believe this will take longer than initially expected.

Can't say I disagree. I have been saying every member of this team should be on the trade block for about 2 years now. There are absolutely zero building blocks on this team. No superstars. Friedman also mentioned earlier this season that Yzerman was only protecting 4 players: Larkin, Zadina, Raymond, and Seider. Everyone else is trade bait. The Mantha trade all but confirms the truth of that.

>Larkin is on pace for 45 pts in 82 games
>Hronek is like Kronwall - a great 2nd pair Dman
>Bertuzzi and Fabbri are great secondary players
>We have one blue chip in Seider
>Almost zero goalie depth in the pipeline

Reality is... Hronek, Larkin, and/or Bertuzzi are very likely traded in the next 24 months. Shocker I know. But they are not the stalwarts you have built them up to be in your mind.

This team has 5+ years of tanking and drafting ahead of it.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

Fresh take

[F.Michael 4,590]

Maybe an ignorant - but an honest question here...

What exactly does 'rebuild' mean with regards to the timeframe? Are we talking winning the Cup - are we talking being a legit contender - are we talking about being good enough to make the playoffs?

Personally I feel it'll be 2 to 4 more seasons of missing the playoffs until we have a 'good enough corps' of players that can compete at a high level in which the playoffs are an expectation.

[Akakabuto 1,751]

4 hours ago, Gniwder said:

https://podcast.sportsnet.ca/31-thoughts/trade-deadline-wrap-up/

Friedman talks about it in his podcast above.

Yzerman and Co believe this will take longer than initially expected.

Can't say I disagree. I have been saying every member of this team should be on the trade block for about 2 years now. There are absolutely zero building blocks on this team. No superstars. Friedman also mentioned earlier this season that Yzerman was only protecting 4 players: Larkin, Zadina, Raymond, and Seider. Everyone else is trade bait. The Mantha trade all but confirms the truth of that.

>Larkin is on pace for 45 pts in 82 games
>Hronek is like Kronwall - a great 2nd pair Dman
>Bertuzzi and Fabbri are great secondary players
>We have one blue chip in Seider
>Almost zero goalie depth in the pipeline

Reality is... Hronek, Larkin, and/or Bertuzzi are very likely traded in the next 24 months. Shocker I know. But they are not the stalwarts you have built them up to be in your mind.

This team has 5+ years of tanking and drafting ahead of it.

Yzerman didn't have any delusions about this team and where its was at when he signed on. And certainly nothing has changed sinced the last offseason when he signed Mantha to a 4-year contract. Seen this piece being posted elsewhere and some posters seems to think trading Mantha set the rebuild back 2-3 years. Nonsense, poopy pants!

 

4 hours ago, F.Michael said:

Maybe an ignorant - but an honest question here...

What exactly does 'rebuild' mean with regards to the timeframe? Are we talking winning the Cup - are we talking being a legit contender - are we talking about being good enough to make the playoffs?

Personally I feel it'll be 2 to 4 more seasons of missing the playoffs until we have a 'good enough corps' of players that can compete at a high level in which the playoffs are an expectation.

I think the leap from being a playoff team to being a legit contender is far greater than going from rebuild/retool/whatever to battling for a playoff spot.

Tanking->Competitive--->Regular Playoff-team--------------->Contender

I think the Wings are back in the hunt for a playoff spot in two years, but that doesn't mean they will be anywhere close to be contending for the Stanley Cup by then.

Take the time - do it right. God forbid we end up like Montreal going in-and-out of the playoffs every year with no chance of actually competing in the long run.

[Gniwder 168]

10 hours ago, F.Michael said:

Maybe an ignorant - but an honest question here...

What exactly does 'rebuild' mean with regards to the timeframe? Are we talking winning the Cup - are we talking being a legit contender - are we talking about being good enough to make the playoffs?

Personally I feel it'll be 2 to 4 more seasons of missing the playoffs until we have a 'good enough corps' of players that can compete at a high level in which the playoffs are an expectation.

 

6 hours ago, Akakabuto said:

Yzerman didn't have any delusions about this team and where its was at when he signed on. And certainly nothing has changed sinced the last offseason when he signed Mantha to a 4-year contract. Seen this piece being posted elsewhere and some posters seems to think trading Mantha set the rebuild back 2-3 years. Nonsense, poopy pants!

 

I think the leap from being a playoff team to being a legit contender is far greater than going from rebuild/retool/whatever to battling for a playoff spot.

Tanking->Competitive--->Regular Playoff-team--------------->Contender

I think the Wings are back in the hunt for a playoff spot in two years, but that doesn't mean they will be anywhere close to be contending for the Stanley Cup by then.

Take the time - do it right. God forbid we end up like Montreal going in-and-out of the playoffs every year with no chance of actually competing in the long run.

Gentlemen, I think 2-4 years is insanely hopeful. Possible? Sure. But very unlikely.

Consider this: In two years Seider will be 22. In four years 24. And this is essentially the eldest of "Yzer'z guyz".
Raymond will be 21 in two years. 23 in four.
This years first rounders will be 20 in two years. 22 in four.

Not only would that be an insanely young core to successfully compete with. All these draft picks (including Raymond) have to be superstar level hits. Chances are more than half of our "hope to be superstar prospects" won't be. Look at Larkin and Mantha. Good players, but nothing you can build a championship around. We are going to have plenty of false prophets like this over the next 2-4 seasons.

I think it's much more likely the corner starts to turn when Seider is about 26 and the vet leader on this team. Similar to Yzerman or Lidstrom. That gives GM Yzerman 6 drafts to land (and develop) the 2 superstars centers this team needs to have the one two punch down the middle we need and are accustomed to. Still a tall order, but much more doable.

Not to mention we need to develop a competent goalie as well. Maybe Petruzzelli can be that guy in 3-4 years? Thats the soonest possible. If it's instead a guy like Gylander or draft pick from this year or ahead it could be another 5 seasons plus.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Gniwder

[Akakabuto 1,751]

49 minutes ago, Gniwder said:

 

Gentlemen, I think 2-4 years is insanely hopeful. Possible? Sure. But very unlikely.

Consider this: In two years Seider will be 22. In four years 24. And this is essentially the eldest of "Yzer'z guyz".
Raymond will be 21 in two years. 23 in four.
This years first rounders will be 20 in two years. 22 in four.

Not only would that be an insanely young core to successfully compete with. All these draft picks (including Raymond) have to be superstar level hits. Chances are more than half of our "hope to be superstar prospects" won't be. Look at Larkin and Mantha. Good players, but nothing you can build a championship around. We are going to have plenty of false prophets like this over the next 2-4 seasons.

I think it's much more likely the corner starts to turn when Seider is about 26 and the vet leader on this team. Similar to Yzerman or Lidstrom. That gives GM Yzerman 6 drafts to land (and develop) the 2 superstars centers this team needs to have the one two punch down the middle we need and are accustomed to. Still a tall order, but much more doable.

Not to mention we need to develop a competent goalie as well. Maybe Petruzzelli can be that guy in 3-4 years? Thats the soonest possible. If it's instead a guy like Gylander or draft pick from this year or ahead it could be another 5 seasons plus.

Lots of pieces still missing, obviously. My meaning was that we could start to "turn the corner" in 2 years but being a team to reckon with is probably still 4-6 years away.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

Another thing to consider is the competition. The Lightning, Bruins, Capitals, and Penguins should all start their decline over the next few years. But what about the Leafs, Canes, Islanders, and Panthers? Not to mention teams like Ottawa and NYR who will maybe be right there competing with Detroit. 

[Gniwder 168]

20 minutes ago, Akakabuto said:

Lots of pieces still missing, obviously. My meaning was that we could start to "turn the corner" in 2 years but being a team to reckon with is probably still 4-6 years away.

Depends on how you define "turn the corner" I guess. Turning the corner to me would mean fighting for a playoff spot but still missing. Not competitive yet, but not a complete disaster no chance team either. Drafting in the 10-16 range instead of the 1-10 range.

Unfortunately I think we will still be pretty bottomed out over the next 2 seasons. Our draft picks will still be too young to make big enough impacts. We will continue to only sign low quality UFAs, and we will continue to shed pieces like Bertuzzi and Fabbri.

[LeftWinger 4,962]

I know if the "right" offer comes along that Larkin could be dealt, but IMO Yzerman showed a lot of confidence in him by naming him Captain and it really would take TWICE the haul that Mantha brought to get him to deal Larkin.  Anything is possible, but I just don't see Yzerman trading away his Captain.  When a Captain is chosen in Detroit, it's a career choice. Unless something catastrophic happens, Larkin should be here his entire career as Captain. If Yzerman had ANY reservations about him being here forever, he would have NOT chosen him to be Captain. He would've left three A's in affect and waited to chose.

I also don't see Hronek being dealt unless it's a similar haul as Mantha, same for Bertuzzi. Those players are Yzerman type players. Bert will get a nice raise this summer and the (if he stays healthy) will solidify his spot. BUT much like Mantha, he is older and may not fit in the "extended" rebuild timeline. So maybe he'll get another one year deal and become TDL bait again next season. Hronek is only 23, Larkin 24. I get the feeling that if you are 27-ish or more, then you don't fit the timeline. I have a strange feeling that there may be some surprises when Yzerman reveals his protected list for Seattle. He may even have a trade his sleeve in order to not lose valuable youngsters. Maybe deal Bertuzzi to Seattle for another haul?

[Akakabuto 1,751]

2 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Another thing to consider is the competition. The Lightning, Bruins, Capitals, and Penguins should all start their decline over the next few years. But what about the Leafs, Canes, Islanders, and Panthers? Not to mention teams like Ottawa and NYR who will maybe be right there competing with Detroit. 

Red Wings move back to western conference. Boom! Solved.

2 hours ago, Gniwder said:

Depends on how you define "turn the corner" I guess. Turning the corner to me would mean fighting for a playoff spot but still missing. Not competitive yet, but not a complete disaster no chance team either. Drafting in the 10-16 range instead of the 1-10 range.

Same. Pretty much where the Rangers are right now.

We probably wont have a Panarin though.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Akakabuto

[Gniwder 168]

1 hour ago, Akakabuto said:

Red Wings move back to western conference. Boom! Solved.

Same. Pretty much where the Rangers are right now.

We probably wont have a Panarin though.

I just don't see that happening in 2 years. Maybe not even 4. This team is very far out in my eyes. Seider in his rookie year won't fix that. And Seider in his rookie year + 1 probably won't either. Our other prospects are far too immature still to make a big splash for this team in the 3 seasons. And it's doubtful an impactful UFA will sign up here in the meantime.

[kipwinger 8,524]

I think a lot depends on what we land this year in the draft. Total wildcard. This is probably going to be the most under-scouted draft in the modern era. Everyone keeps saying there's no consensus top guy this year, and I think that's largely built on the fact that most of these guys haven't been seen regularly in a season and a half. That increases the chances that you draft a guy that's not as good as you think, or maybe that you draft a guy who is better than you thought. In addition the pandemic has a lot of these draft eligible players playing up an age or in leagues they otherwise wouldn't. It's really hard to know how good guys like Power, Beniers, Johnson really are because there's almost no chance that any of these guys would be playing NCAA hockey in their draft years in a normal season. With 5 picks in the top two rounds I think we're primed to  find some really quality players.

[Akakabuto 1,751]

43 minutes ago, Gniwder said:

I just don't see that happening in 2 years. Maybe not even 4. This team is very far out in my eyes. Seider in his rookie year won't fix that. And Seider in his rookie year + 1 probably won't either. Our other prospects are far too immature still to make a big splash for this team in the 3 seasons. And it's doubtful an impactful UFA will sign up here in the meantime.

Wings are a .409 team right now. I don't think its highly unlikely that they could become a .500 team in 2 years time. I haven't looked over the last couple of seasons final standings but thats usually where the almost-playoff-teams are at no?

Edited April 14, 2021 by Akakabuto

[Gniwder 168]

55 minutes ago, Akakabuto said:

Wings are a .409 team right now. I don't think its highly unlikely that they could become a .500 team in 2 years time. I haven't looked over the last couple of seasons final standings but thats usually where the almost-playoff-teams are at no?

>2015-16
>Datsyuk gone
>Franzen gone
>New coach
>He'sIntoKids.jpeg
>Larkin and Mantha emerging
>Time to rebuild
>Should be competitive again in like 2-4 seasons

>5 seasons later
>Everyone is gone
>Even our emerging players are being traded
>We've had maybe 2 decent drafts in that time
>Those players are nowhere close to developed yet
>Pedo coach is a complete joke

Should be about 2-4 more season my dudes
 

[Akakabuto 1,751]

43 minutes ago, Gniwder said:

>We've had maybe 2 decent drafts in that time

What Holland and Wright did to this organization in the 2017 draft(not hating on Ras) is unforgivable. 

[Gniwder 168]

7 minutes ago, Akakabuto said:

What Holland and Wright did to this organization in the 2017 draft(not hating on Ras) is unforgivable. 

Just saying "2-4 more seasons" is sucha meme

Here's my future prediction:

>2021/22 season: Fabbri + Namestnikov traded
>2022/23 season: Vrana + Bertuzzi traded
>2023/24 season: Now we've had 4 years of Yzerdrafting with an abundance of picks. And gents like Raymond/Seider/Berggren have had a chance to join the team and develop with more draftees on their way. And folks at that point will again say "about 2-4 more seasons".

[Akakabuto 1,751]

48 minutes ago, Gniwder said:

Just saying "2-4 more seasons" is sucha meme

Here's my future prediction:

>2021/22 season: Fabbri + Namestnikov traded
>2022/23 season: Vrana + Bertuzzi traded
>2023/24 season: Now we've had 4 years of Yzerdrafting with an abundance of picks. And gents like Raymond/Seider/Berggren have had a chance to join the team and develop with more draftees on their way. And folks at that point will again say "about 2-4 more seasons".

My predictions is that starting with the 23/24 the Wings will be mediocre. We have taken one step on the way just by going from god awful last season to bad this season. The jump up to mediocrity isn’t big. Then we will see if the team can git gud in another two years. 

[mackel 681]

Our reality is that the draft has given us top end talent on a slow path of development.  Seider and Raymond will be fantastic players BUT they are draft year +3 or 4 type guys.  Our "luck" in the lotto means we've not been able to get draft year or draft year +1 type guys. 

The 2017 and 2018 drafts are what might have been drafts, I don't think we'll have many or any of those guys on this team when we're competitive. 

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

1 hour ago, mackel said:

Our reality is that the draft has given us top end talent on a slow path of development.  Seider and Raymond will be fantastic players BUT they are draft year +3 or 4 type guys.  Our "luck" in the lotto means we've not been able to get draft year or draft year +1 type guys. 

The 2017 and 2018 drafts are what might have been drafts, I don't think we'll have many or any of those guys on this team when we're competitive. 

Between Rasmussen, Zadina, Veleno, and Berggren. I think you have two players stick around. 

[Gniwder 168]

13 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Between Rasmussen, Zadina, Veleno, and Berggren. I think you have two players stick around. 

Can't speak about Berggren because he hasn't come to NA yet.

I think Veleno and Ras may survive just because they are centers (unless Yzerguy starts drafting elite centers who leapfrog them)

Zadina will be gone ala Tatar, Nyquist, Mantha. So overrated.

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

They've been rebuilding for the last five years.  Isn't that already long?  

[LeftWinger 4,962]

4 hours ago, Gniwder said:

Can't speak about Berggren because he hasn't come to NA yet.

I think Veleno and Ras may survive just because they are centers (unless Yzerguy starts drafting elite centers who leapfrog them)

Zadina will be gone ala Tatar, Nyquist, Mantha. So overrated.

Zadina for Caufield....get it done!

[F.Michael 4,590]

3 hours ago, GMRwings1983 said:

They've been rebuilding for the last five years.  Isn't that already long?  

Indeed it is.

Mid to late 80s while being bad we had Yzerman/Probert/Kocur and a few other guys to cheer for.

Nobody today really gets me pumped for a Wings game.

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

2 hours ago, F.Michael said:

Indeed it is.

Mid to late 80s while being bad we had Yzerman/Probert/Kocur and a few other guys to cheer for.

Nobody today really gets me pumped for a Wings game.

You racist.  You're only excited when white guys beat people up.  Givani Smith has been very exciting.  Just ask the Florida Panthers.    

[marcaractac 3,963]

On 4/14/2021 at 3:46 PM, Akakabuto said:

Wings are a .409 team right now. I don't think its highly unlikely that they could become a .500 team in 2 years time. I haven't looked over the last couple of seasons final standings but thats usually where the almost-playoff-teams are at no?

I think we could be a .500 next season tbh. Our record is only as "bad" as it is because of the big losing streak earlier in the season when we had a bunch of guys out with covid.