Mo/Ray/Ras Contract Watch

[bIueadams 776]

Sanderson just signed $8x8

Dahlin is rumored to soon be signing $10.5x8

Sanderson is a year younger than Mo, and I think Mo is much closer to Dahlin in caliber at this point.

These 3 new contracts will have pretty significant cap implications for us. We will have to shed players elsewhere. With the Atlantic being a thunderdome again, i think it might be best in our long term interests to sell again this year.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

Well Fabbri + Perron + GBear flipped at the deadline frees up 12M

Chiarot n Hall combine for 8 for the next three years so that’s gross but you have to assume management has a plan I guess? 

[AtlantaHotWings 1,125]

Isn't the cap supposed to go up? 

[diehardredwingsfan58 164]

Moritz Seider 8 x $9,500,000

Lucas Raymond 3 x $6,500,000

Michael Rasmussen 4 x $3,500,000.

Those should be pretty close to what they receive.

[kipwinger 8,756]

31 minutes ago, diehardredwingsfan58 said:

Moritz Seider 8 x $9,500,000

Lucas Raymond 3 x $6,500,000

Michael Rasmussen 4 x $3,500,000.

Those should be pretty close to what they receive.

These are the right ballpark, though I'd probably quibble with Raymond and Ras' AAV a bit. I think both those contracts have some variability depending on how their seasons go. If they both have seasons like last year I think Raymond gets closer to 5.5 and Ras gets 4 million. The terms make sense though.

[marcaractac 3,963]

The question is, if Raymond has a huge breakout year, do you lock him up for 8 years in hopes of a lower cap hit long-term?

[kipwinger 8,756]

25 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

The question is, if Raymond has a huge breakout year, do you lock him up for 8 years in hopes of a lower cap hit long-term?

What's a "breakout year" in your view?

[bIueadams 776]

Seider is pretty much a lock for a 10x8, his contract can probably completed during the season.

For Ras and Ray, like kip said, its going to depend wildly on how their respective seasons go. They prolly dont get signed until next summer.

Id consider 8 year term on both though if Ray can hit 70+ pts and Ras can flirt with 60.

I think Ras will be looking for term since hes older. Ray prolly not. Im guessing he will want to beidge so he can get a higher AAV during his prime.

[diehardredwingsfan58 164]

7 hours ago, kipwinger said:

These are the right ballpark, though I'd probably quibble with Raymond and Ras' AAV a bit. I think both those contracts have some variability depending on how their seasons go. If they both have seasons like last year I think Raymond gets closer to 5.5 and Ras gets 4 million. The terms make sense though.

Yeah 3 x $5,500,000 for Raymond makes the most sense.

And i could see Ras getting around 4 x $4,000,000 as well.

6 hours ago, kipwinger said:

What's a "breakout year" in your view?

If i were to venture a guess, A breakout season for Raymond would need to be in the 70-80 point range.

[marcaractac 3,963]

On 9/8/2023 at 2:07 PM, kipwinger said:

What's a "breakout year" in your view?

To develop urgency to lock up for 8 years? Let's say a ppg season. 

[kipwinger 8,756]

2 hours ago, marcaractac said:

To develop urgency to lock up for 8 years? Let's say a ppg season. 

I can get behind this, give or take a few points. He scored almost 60 as a rookie. With who additional seasons under his belt, and an improved team around him, I don't see why he shouldn't be in the 75-85 point range.

 

[marcaractac 3,963]

2 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I can get behind this, give or take a few points. He scored almost 60 as a rookie. With who additional seasons under his belt, and an improved team around him, I don't see why he shouldn't be in the 75-85 point range.

 

The question then is, if he does break out and hit a PPG pace, what does his next contract look like then? I feel a bridge deal at that point risks a more significant future cap hit. So does a ppg season warrant an 8-year deal to keep the long-term cap hit down? If so, what does said cap hit look like?

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

20 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

The question then is, if he does break out and hit a PPG pace, what does his next contract look like then? I feel a bridge deal at that point risks a more significant future cap hit. So does a ppg season warrant an 8-year deal to keep the long-term cap hit down? If so, what does said cap hit look like?

PPG 21 year old winger salary question/concerns = v good problem to have

[bIueadams 776]

2 hours ago, marcaractac said:

The question then is, if he does break out and hit a PPG pace, what does his next contract look like then? I feel a bridge deal at that point risks a more significant future cap hit. So does a ppg season warrant an 8-year deal to keep the long-term cap hit down? If so, what does said cap hit look like?

If Raymond hits 82 pts this year he will probably be smart and sign a 3-5 year deal around 7-8 million. 

If we wanna lock him up for 8, a good agent is prolly going to move his AAV into the 9-10 range. 21 year old ppg players are valuable.

[Axl Foley 334]

On 9/7/2023 at 8:30 PM, The 91 of Ryans said:

Well Fabbri + Perron + GBear flipped at the deadline frees up 12M

Chiarot n Hall combine for 8 for the next three years so that’s gross but you have to assume management has a plan I guess? 

I doubt Fabbri gets traded. He still has another year on his contract and is injury prone.

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

Raymond wont break 45 pts this year

[bIueadams 776]

8 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Raymond wont break 45 pts this year

im more of a bergger boy anyway

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

20 minutes ago, bIueadams said:

im more of a bergger boy anyway

raymond gonna be on the 3rd line

[Motor City Mullets 303]

14 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

raymond gonna be on the 3rd line

 

 

15 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Raymond wont break 45 pts this year

Ye of little faith...

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

4 hours ago, Motor City Mullets said:

 

 

Ye of little faith...

gonna try to bump up Perron's numbers to get something at the deadline.  No reason to give Raymond more money either.  Let him sweat out a few of his early 20 years.  That's the Yzerway.

[LeftWinger 5,131]

Raymond at $6.5? I am not sure he has earned that, but if he does really, REALLY good this season, maybe.

I saw talk about Mo maybe wanting a bridge deal (around 3x$8M) in order to cash in later on. I hope Yzerman can convince Claude and Mo to accept the 8 year deal now ($9.5M sounds great) because if he continues along his climb, in three years he will probably cost $12M+.

[joesuffP 1,746]

Teams are missing the plot with some of these long term deals. Is getting bad value for 4 years really worth saving 2M for the last 4 considering this is best case scenario and worst case is crippling your team for 8 years

Edited September 13, 2023 by joesuffP

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

2 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Raymond at $6.5? I am not sure he has earned that, but if he does really, REALLY good this season, maybe.

I saw talk about Mo maybe wanting a bridge deal (around 3x$8M) in order to cash in later on. I hope Yzerman can convince Claude and Mo to accept the 8 year deal now ($9.5M sounds great) because if he continues along his climb, in three years he will probably cost $12M+.

Seider won't get 8 if he's looking for a bridge deal. 

29 minutes ago, joesuffP said:

Teams are missing the plot with some of these long term deals. Is getting bad value for 4 years really worth saving 2M for the last 4 considering this is best case scenario and worst case is crippling your team for 8 years

Won't happen in Yzerland

[bIueadams 776]

38 minutes ago, joesuffP said:

Teams are missing the plot with some of these long term deals. Is getting bad value for 4 years really worth saving 2M for the last 4 considering this is best case scenario and worst case is crippling your team for 8 years

Lucas is a 4th overall 21 year old winger that still has more expected of him.

A good comparison is probably Alexis Lafreniere. Same age, same position, likewise needs to elevate his game yet. Lafren just signed $2.325 x 2. If I had to sign Raymond today I would be a lot closer to something like that than say the $6.5 AAV that's being tossed around.

Raymond's current contract ends when he's 22, so I think a good extension for him looks like $3-3.5 million for 2-3 years. The contract ends when he's still in RFA control, so he can be given an appropriate long term contract based on his play at that time.

But again, this could all vary wildly based on how this season goes. I know we are all hoping to see an 80 pt winger out there.

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

45 minutes ago, bIueadams said:

Lucas is a 4th overall 21 year old winger that still has more expected of him.

A good comparison is probably Alexis Lafreniere. Same age, same position, likewise needs to elevate his game yet. Lafren just signed $2.325 x 2. If I had to sign Raymond today I would be a lot closer to something like that than say the $6.5 AAV that's being tossed around.

Raymond's current contract ends when he's 22, so I think a good extension for him looks like $3-3.5 million for 2-3 years. The contract ends when he's still in RFA control, so he can be given an appropriate long term contract based on his play at that time.

But again, this could all vary wildly based on how this season goes. I know we are all hoping to see an 80 pt winger out there.

If Raymond gets 80, then Perron only gets 20 pts by the deadline instead of 40.  Then we dont get anything for Perron, and we have to pay Raymond Debrincat money.  Not gonna happen.