Pens fan here...first post. NO SMACK!

[BobErrey12 0]

Look, as GREAT as the Penguin players are, they are not as AWESOME of a team as the Red Wings. The Wings are the best TEAM in the NHL and have been all season. The Pens have Crosby, Malkin, and Hossa... but that is it. Once they are shut down by the team-defense that the Wings play, who is left to score the 5 goals that will be needed to beat the Wings 4 TIMES!?!?

Wings in 5, just so we win at home.

Yeah, I'm cocky and I have a reason to be.

Not to be a smart ass, but you obviously haven't been watching Petr Sykora, Ryan Malone or Pascal Dupuis play for Pittsburgh very much. But yeah, outside of those 6 guys... we have no scoring depth.

[Xitium 272]

So.

How did you guys do in your game 4?? Swept 'em right?

Oh. My bad.

[CloudConnected 0]

Allow me to "mix up who goes where." Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Ovechkin, . There, I fixed your spelling and grammatical errors for you.

Lidstrom should be in there too right?

[Datsyerberger 279]

Lidstrom should be in there too right?

Lidstrom cannot be in that list since he transcends those bounds.

[David 2]

Offense is equal they may have Malkin and Crosby but we have something they gave up... Sammy, hes worth 4 malkins and a dozen crosbys, with his blind passes, low precentage passes and his Lang-like work ethic, he makes the wings the team they are.

haha thank you so much for this post!

[Dr Rosenrosen 0]

So.

How did you guys do in your game 4?? Swept 'em right?

Oh. My bad.

Oh, game 4 was last night? I thought I was watching an AHL game.

[vladdy16 2,154]

Oh, game 4 was last night? I thought I was watching an AHL game.

Welcome to our world.

['33' 0]

Hi. Pens fan stopping by.

Detroit vs Pittsburgh.

With the exception of an LA vs NY final, I thing the NHL would be more than happy to have to two teams meet up in the Finals. Detroit is an explosive, defensively sound team as Pittsburgh is.

Pens in 6. Winning the cup on home ice.

Forwards: Pens > Wings - Crosby/Malkin/Hossa are much better than Zetts/Dats/Franzen

Defense: Wings > Pens - Your teams D is awesome, but don't underestimate the Penguins.

Goal: Pens < Wings, unless the Pens shell Ossy in the first game and Hasek comes in. i don't think Ossy is good enough laterally to combat the Penguins tic-tac-toe passing.

And to quote a fellow Penguins fan:

First off, let's look at the stats:

2nd in goals per game in the playoffs, .001 goals behind the Pens at #1 (3.58 to 3.57)

2nd in goals against per game in the playoffs at 2.00 per game (Pens in 1st with 1.83 per).

Their power play is 9th in the playoffs (4th remaining) clicking at 19% (Pens are 1st reaming, second overall at 24.6%)

Their kill is 4th overall (2nd remaining) at 86.7% Pens are 2nd overall (1st remaining) at 89.4%

On paper, that looks daunting. All that offense is impressive, and their power play isn't bad. But let's look further, shall we?

Round 1:

6 games played against the Nashville Predators. 17 goals scored as they win the series 4 games to 2.

That's an average of 2.83 goals per game.

Their power play went 3 for 31, a grand old 10% average.

Their defense gave up 12 goals in those six games, a 2.00 GAA.

Round 2:

4 games played over the lowly Colorado Avalanche. Their offense scored 21 goals in the sweep.

That's 5.25 goals per game on average.

Power play was 7 for 24, at scorching 29% pace.

Defensively, 9 goals were allowed in 4 games for a 2.25 GAA

Round 3:

In an ongoing series against the Dallas Stars, up 3-1. 12 goals scored so far in those 4 games.

3 goals per game even with the average.

Thus far their power play is 4 for 26, 15% conversion rate.

Dallas had been stymied up until last night when their 3 goal output nearly doubled their production to date. 7 goals in 4 games, 1.75 per game.

The numbers here focus on their strengths on offense, power play, and goals against.

Now let's look deeper.

Goals For Average:

Round 1: 17 in 6= 2.83

Round 2: 21 in 5= 5.25

Round 3: 12 in 4= 3.00

Power play percentage:

Round 1: 3 for 31= 10%

Round 2: 7 for 24= 29%

Round 3: 4 for 26= 15%

Look at the anamoly in the stats. I'll give you a hint, it's the cream in the Oreo, which is exactly what Colorado was. Their goaltending dropped off the face of the earth as injuries built up game after game culminating in an 8-2 drubbing to finish the series off.

That Colorado team was far weaker than any team the Pens played. They'd be equal to the Senators, save for Gerber who kept the Sens in every game. Theodore/Budaj were nothing more than shooter tutors behind a shredded defense.

Lets look at the numbers WITHOUT the cream filling:

GOALS FOR:

Round 1: 17 in 6= 2.83

Round 3: 12 in 4= 3.00

Round 1+2: 29 in 10= 2.90

POWER PLAY:

Round 1: 3 for 31= 10%

Round 3: 4 for 26= 15%

Round 1+3= 7 for 57= 12%

Those adjusted numbers make them 4th overall, 3rd remaining in goals per game. And they are 13th overall, 4th remaining in power play numbers.

Hardly scary.

As far as defensively, the teams they faced are/were 14th, 8th, and 7th in scoring. Yet they still average 2.00 per game. The teams the Pens faced are/were 16th, 4th, and 3rd. Yet the Fleury and the Pens have held their opponents to under 1.83 goals per game.

Let's continue as far as players.

WHY YOU SHOULDN'T FEAR JOHAN FRANZEN:

Let's ignore the questions as to whether he'll play. Let's address his 15 points in 11 games.

Round 1 against the Preds:

Game 1: 1 g, 0 a

Game 2: 0 g, 0 a

Game 3: 0 g, 1 a

Game 4: 0 g, 0 a

Game 5: 1 g, 1 a

Game 6: 0 g, 0 a

Series total: 2 g, 2 a

Respectable.

Round 2 against the Avalanche:

Game 1: 2 g, 1 a

Game 2: 3 g, 0 a

Game 3: 1 g, 0 a

Game 4: 3 g, 0 a

Series total: 9 g, 1, a

Round 3:

Game 1: 1 g, 0 a

Series to date: 1 g, 0 a

Once again, look at the cream in the middle. Without that, he's 3 g, 2 a in 7 games. Again, respectable but get off his jock. He's not the world beater that he seems.

This not only effects Franzen, but it effects the teams numbers:

On his nine goals in the Colorado series the following had assists:

Kronwall- 3 a

Hudler- 3 a

Samuelsson (where was CP on that one?!)- 3 a

Filppula- 2 a

Zetterberg- 2 a

Lidstrom- 1 a

Lebda- 1 a

Stuart- 1 a

Just looking at their team stats, they seem deep and impressive. 7 players in double digit point totals, compared to 5 for the Pens.

But wait. Take away the inflation by Franzen's explosion during the Avs implosion and Zetterberg drops out of the scoring lead from 19 points to 17 points. Depth players seem less impressive:

Franzen goes from 15 points to 5 points

Hudler 12 to 9

Kronwall's 11 becomes 8

Samuelsson falls from 8 to 5

Filppula drops 6 to 4

Their depth then becomes our depth.

[Xitium 272]

I hereby declare all stats gained by the Pens during the sweep of Ottawa null and void because they weren't a quality opponent.

Are you kidding me?

You can't just toss out stats because you don't deem them worthy, lol.

[Dr Rosenrosen 0]

Hi. Pens fan stopping by.

Detroit vs Pittsburgh.

With the exception of an LA vs NY final, I thing the NHL would be more than happy to have to two teams meet up in the Finals. Detroit is an explosive, defensively sound team as Pittsburgh is.

Pens in 6. Winning the cup on home ice.

Forwards: Pens > Wings - Crosby/Malkin/Hossa are much better than Zetts/Dats/Franzen

Defense: Wings > Pens - Your teams D is awesome, but don't underestimate the Penguins.

Goal: Pens < Wings, unless the Pens shell Ossy in the first game and Hasek comes in. i don't think Ossy is good enough laterally to combat the Penguins tic-tac-toe passing.

And to quote a fellow Penguins fan:

Oh Dear Lord. Here it comes...

[Reds4Life 51]

Hi. Pens fan stopping by.

Detroit vs Pittsburgh.

With the exception of an LA vs NY final, I thing the NHL would be more than happy to have to two teams meet up in the Finals. Detroit is an explosive, defensively sound team as Pittsburgh is.

Pens in 6. Winning the cup on home ice.

Forwards: Pens > Wings - Crosby/Malkin/Hossa are much better than Zetts/Dats/Franzen

Defense: Wings > Pens - Your teams D is awesome, but don't underestimate the Penguins.

Goal: Pens < Wings, unless the Pens shell Ossy in the first game and Hasek comes in. i don't think Ossy is good enough laterally to combat the Penguins tic-tac-toe passing.

Ridiculous.

So Crosby/Malkin/Hossa are MUCH better than Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Franzen

hmm..me looks at playoff leading scorers..you are wrong.

They are not MUCH better.

Besides, we have more than 3 forwards, you know.

Thanks for giving our D some credit. I love how you immedietaly add "don't underestimate the Penguins", but you still have MUCH better offense, right.

You are pretty naive if you think Nick Lidstrom and co. will allow your tic-tac-toe passing.

Goalies..yes, underestimate Ozzie, that's when he is the best.

Thank you, Wings in 5.

Edited May 16, 2008 by Reds4Life

[va Winger 0]

Ridiculous.

So Crosby/Malkin/Hossa are MUCH better than Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Franzen

hmm..me looks at playoff leading scorers..you are wrong.

They are not MUCH better.

Besides, we have more than 3 forwards, you know.

Thanks for giving our D some credit. I love how you immedietaly add "don't underestimate the Penguins", but you still have MUCH better offense, right.

You are pretty naive if you think Nick Lidstrom and co. will allow your tic-tac-toe passing.

Goalies..yes, underestimate Ozzie, that's when he is the best.

Thank you, Wings in 5.

No smack ?

I don't see anyone in the East giving The Wings any challenge at all.........................Pens included........Lets just say the magic number for us is 5 including tomorrows game.........I would be a little careful about ruling out the Flyers just yet too , if I were you. Word has it key people will be back from injury by Sunday !

[redwings4life 3]

Hi. Pens fan stopping by.

Detroit vs Pittsburgh.

With the exception of an LA vs NY final, I thing the NHL would be more than happy to have to two teams meet up in the Finals. Detroit is an explosive, defensively sound team as Pittsburgh is.

Pens in 6. Winning the cup on home ice.

Forwards: Pens > Wings - Crosby/Malkin/Hossa are much better than Zetts/Dats/Franzen

Defense: Wings > Pens - Your teams D is awesome, but don't underestimate the Penguins.

Goal: Pens < Wings, unless the Pens shell Ossy in the first game and Hasek comes in. i don't think Ossy is good enough laterally to combat the Penguins tic-tac-toe passing.

And to quote a fellow Penguins fan:

Keep staying on your high horse until the wings knock you off of it WINGS in 5 and i'll add some statistics for you since you say Crosby Malkin and Hossa are so Much Better

Zetterberg is tied with Crosby in Points but Zetterberg has a +14 +/- rating while Crosby only has + 4, Pavel is tied with Evgeni Malkin in Points and yet The +/- rating again Pavel at +12 Evgeni at +4 and lastly Hossa Tied with Franzen in Points with 15, but once again Franzen with + 9 Hossa with +5 and Johan leading the league in goals (Also on a side note Franzen has been out since game 2 so i'm sure he would have picked up a point to go ahead of Hossa) just so you know

Edited May 16, 2008 by redwings4life

[chrisdetroit 189]

I actually missed that the first time. Detroit has an absolutely HUGE edge in defense as far as personnel goes, and their system is far and away better than Pittsburgh. I think that it will frustrate the Pens' young guys, and lead to PP time for Detroit...let's do this!

I agree with you. The Wings D is much better than the Pens. Not only in shutting down the oposition but in scoring and moving the puck up to the forwards. Last week I looked at the stats of the 4 remaining teams and the % of points coming from D-men for Pittsburgh was much lower than the other 3. The Wings were the highest.

Secondly, every year the NHL hands out a trophey to the best defensive forward in the entire league. This would be the best out of aroound 400 forwards in the league. Before the Selke is awarded, the narrow the field down to 3 finalists. This year the finalists are John Madded, Henrik Zetterburg and Pavel Datsyuk. What does this mean? It means that we have 2 of the 3 best defensive forwards out of 400 in the league. And both of them are on the same line.

There is no question that the Detroit defense including our defensive forwards are WAY better than Pittsburgh's.

This my friends will be the difference. It does no good to have skilled young forwards if the Wings defense shuts them down. And with Pittsburgh not getting much scoring from their D-men...

I expect a short series 4-1 Wings.

[Inultus 12]

Zetterberg is tied with Crosby in Points but Zetterberg has a +14 +/- rating while Crosby only has + 4, Pavel is tied with Evgeni Malkin in Points and yet The +/- rating again Pavel at +12 Evgeni at +4 and lastly Hossa Tied with Franzen in Points with 15, but once again Franzen with + 9 Hossa with +5 and Johan leading the league in goals just so you know

Yeah, so what part of any of that makes the Pens top 3 better??? Seems like the stats say the opposite. Oh, and interested that Franzen is tied with Hossa and hasn't even played in a few games.

Also, personally I'd take Datsyuk over Crosby just b/c of his amazing defense and ability to take the puck away.

[chrisdetroit 189]

Offense? Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Cleary and Holmstrom - Draper - Samuelsson are not regular lines for the Red Wings. You're thinking of Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom and Cleary - Filppula - Samuelsson. Mind you, the Wings are right now beating the snot out of Dallas without their top goal scorer (Franzen). If he's back on the second line by the time the finals start, we'll be much stronger for it. As is, we're doing fine without him. Your top line will go against a line containing two of the three Selke candidates (Zetterberg and Datsyuk); I can't imagine that'll go well.

Defense? The Pens have a terrible blueline. Gonchar can score. Whom else? How can you possibly compare Whitney, Orpik, Gill and Gonchar to Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall and Stuart? The latter group has a tremendously larger number of points, and in general play better defensively. The Pens` defense doesn't really score, and none of them are two-way. Kronwall, Rafalski and Lidstrom are all tremendous two-way players. You call Lidstrom the best offensive D-man in the league? Well, you're right... but he's also indisputably the best defensive D-man in the league. Gonchar, your best D-man, doesn't even nearly measure up to Lidstrom, and you've got nobody else on the blueline who can score. Detroit has three in the double digits in points. Further, the Wings don't play an eastern conference style. Good luck shutting them down; no other team in this entire season has succeeded in doing so. Really, no team last year could... and this year's Wings are better than last year's Wings.

Special teams? The Wings have a very good PP. The Wings` PK is the best in the playoffs so far, and the Wings can certainly score on the PK. I don't see any advantage on the part of the Pens. Further, the Pens play a 5-man umbrella on the PP; most of those shots won't get past the Wings defense, nor will those that get through beat Osgood should there be no traffic in front of him.

Goaltending? Yeah, Fleury's stats right now look good. So do those of all goaltenders before they play against the Red Wings. Ask Theodore and Turco if you don't believe it. Theodore was the star of the Avs` first-round victory, and Turco was the story of the playoffs for the Stars. Theodore had a 6.72 GAA against the Wings, and Turco is currently being lit up. When said goalies are facing dozens of shots with traffic in front of them, they don't do too well anymore. Only the Wings bring that; the Pens don't.

While I appreciate the spirit in which your post is made, I don't know from whence a lot of your data came. I predict Wings in four. I'd not mind five, as it'd give us the 4th win at home. I also predict that Crosby, at some point in the series, will be flattened by Kronwall. Mark that.

Awesome post! Well thought out and factual.

[timothy1997 0]

not to bring out the cliche police but doesnt "defense win championships"??

I will take the Wings D over the Pens D and take the cup in 5 games.

[WingsZR2 1]

not to bring out the cliche police but doesnt "defense win championships"??

Ours does more than that.

[Dabura 12,207]

Dear Wings fans,

Why bother arguing? This is the most dominant Wings team we've seen in over a decade. Maybe even more dominant than the '97 team.

The top 4 is nuts. Lidstrom-Rafalski + Kronwall-Stuart? Good luck with that, Sid.

ZDH is the most dominant line in the league, and Dats and Hank are currently EN ******* FUEGO.

Our secondary scoring has been somewhat lacking since losing Mule, but at the very least, it's defensively responsible and more than up to the challenge of going head-to-head with its Penguin counterpart. If the Wings get Mule back, forget it -- advantage: Wings.

The role players have been getting the job done. Helm is a revelation and Maltby might as well be the Maltby of the '97 and '98 runs (which, just to be clear, is a good thing).

Osgood is playing the best hockey of his career, no questions asked.

Good luck, Pens. You'll need it.

[Dr Rosenrosen 0]

Pshaw. You will never get past our hordes of seat-claiming businessmen and their uncanny knack at buying all the front row tickets and not coming to the game. Why do you think our crowd seems so thin sometimes? Heh.

Actually. Tix for games 1 & 2 have been plentiful in presale - started Wed, still lots of seats left, and Pens fans buying. Also, there's a few thousand already on StubHub for both games (I assume these are season ticket holders).

Got mine. See you there?

Edited May 16, 2008 by Dr Rosenrosen

[vladdy16 2,154]

Actually. Tix for games 1 & 2 have been plentiful in presale - started Wed, still lots of seats left, and Pens fans buying. Also, there's a few thousand already on StubHub for both games (I assume these are season ticket holders).

Got mine. See you there?

Game 2, hockey gods willing. Hope there's plenty of Pens fans there. I like it when Toronto fans show up - which is the only time there's more than a handful of opposing team's fans in attendance.

And he was dripping sarcasm in his post about the suits, I do believe.

[russianswede919293 95]

Haven't read the whole 9 pages so I don't know who else has, but I will give the Pen's credit.

They scare me, I have been rooting against them all playoffs as the only team I don't want to see the Wings face in the Finals since they are the only team I think has a chance to beat them.

Fleury and Ozzie are wash in talent Ozzie with the experience

Wings D is better than Pens D

Special Teams is too tight to call

Wings top 3 is equal to Pens top 3

its all pretty much a wash, and that makes for a close series and I for one do not see it being a short Wings dominance, but a long hard fought series...where the Wings win of course

[Dabura 12,207]

Wings top 3 is equal to Pens top 3

I'll give you the special teams, but I don't agree with this one.

In the ZDH line you've got two offensive dynamos who are just as responsible defensively as they are dangerous offensively (see Selke nominations). You also have the league's best crease pest in Homer. No line in hockey can match this one right now, imo.

[russianswede919293 95]

I'll give you the special teams, but I don't agree with this one.

In the ZDH line you've got two offensive dynamos who are just as responsible defensively as they are dangerous offensively (see Selke nominations). You also have the league's best crease pest in Homer. No line in hockey can match this one right now, imo.

I will take that as a truth. I meant offensively only, but yes if you count all around we do have the edge there.

[Dabura 12,207]

Honestly, I'd give ZDH the edge in an offense-only matchup. Crosby's a beast, but the West is, imo, much stronger than the East in the defense department -- and this line has at one point or another made every D unit in the West look silly. I hate to play this card, but the Pens' offense really has had it easier by comparison.

It'll be an interesting matchup, for sure.