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toby91_ca

Member Since 28 Jun 2002
Offline Last Active Today, 11:57 AM
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#2686166 2016 World Cup of Hockey thread

Posted by toby91_ca on 20 September 2016 - 12:48 PM

Lots of US / Canadian examples of this with the best Cdn hockey players playing for NHL teams in the US and having children while playing there, or having US wives, etc.  Classic example of the dual citizenship is Brett Hull.




#2686086 2016 World Cup of Hockey thread

Posted by toby91_ca on 18 September 2016 - 10:39 PM

Finns are getting what they deserve for leaving Leino and Sami Helenius off the roster.

 

 

Just curious, but what percentage of Team NA's roster is comprised of US born players?

52%, 12 US born players, 11 Canadian




#2685845 Mrazek's "Farewell to the Joe" Mask for 2016/2017

Posted by toby91_ca on 13 September 2016 - 08:49 AM

It's a nice design, but that's a pretty bad drawing of Yzerman!!

 

They used this photo, but somehow they made him look sick or something.

attachicon.gif97-cup-raise.jpg

 

That's the first thing I thought when I saw this as well....looks nothing like Yzerman.  The Howe drawing is okay.




#2685844 2016 World Cup of Hockey thread

Posted by toby91_ca on 13 September 2016 - 08:14 AM

3C is a waste he should be in the top six no matter what

Why is it a waste?  I get it if we are talking about regular season type play, but with this tournament, for most teams, you aren't going to be getting 1st line playing 20 minutes....minutes are going to be more evenly distributed.

 

Are you suggested he should play wing?




#2685822 Glendening signs 4-year, $1.8m AAV extension

Posted by toby91_ca on 12 September 2016 - 01:44 PM

I have no problem with Glendening's contract.  It's high for a 4th liner, but I think he's an above average 4th liner, so it's not bad.  Citzikas, while better than Glendening in my opinion, is overpaid for sure.  There was a lot of rumblings earlier this year when he signed.  Fans love him in NY, but they didn't love the cap hit.

 

FYI, based on my looking into salaries, the $1.455M for 4th liner centre probably hasn't moved much at all....average for 4th line is still below that, but I didn't look based on LW, C or RW.




#2685820 Darren Helm re-signed: 5 years, $3.85m AAV

Posted by toby91_ca on 12 September 2016 - 10:58 AM

You say "big dollars", but Helm isn't getting paid big dollars, far from it in today's NHL...

I'm not sure what people think market value is for the average 3rd line player, but I don't think what Helm is making is that far off. I think a fair breakdown for NHL forwards salaries is something along the lines of...
4th liner = $0.5-1.5M
3rd liner = $1.5-3.5M
2nd liner = $3.5-5.5M
1st liner = $5.5-7.5M
elite = $7.5+

So yes, he may be slightly overpaid, but I just don't think it's worth all the b****ing and moaning people are doing...

So, I'll admit, when I saw Helm and $3.85 I thought, WOW, that's a lot, but it wasn't based on any real facts, just a gut reaction....perhaps it was out of date...guys are making more, etc.  So I quickly checked the real numbers to see how your buckets match up.  I think you've estimated pretty well, except the range you've given for 3rd liners seems way out of wack.

 

Here's what I came up with purely based on the top earners (forwards) for each team (1-3, 4-6, 7-9, etc.).  The numbers here are the averages of all 30 teams.  So, there is some holes you can poke (when did they sign, UFA vs. RFA, etc.), but I think this is the closest to reality you can do without spending too much time on it, since it really isn't worth it.

 

4th - $0.81 - $1.2M

3rd - $1.46 - $2.6M

2nd - $3.18 - $4.44M

1st - $5.09 - $7.14M

 

So, if everyone thinks Helm is a 3rd liner (which he is on DET based on ice time), then $3.85M looks like more than just a little overpaid.  HOWEVER, some teams have better quality 3rd liners than others, warranting being paid more than the average....which I think is warranted for Helm, but I just think it's gone way further than what's warranted and then tack on the years and NTC that makes me go WOW!

No big deal, but it doesn't make me go WOW!

 

Edit: If I was really upset and felt strongly about it, which I'm not...no big deal to me, but if I was, I'd try to put in the time to come up with comparables....at his level of offsensive production + all the other intangibles, etc....try to see where he fits vs. other players in the league with similar attributes.  Maybe you'd see that a $20M contract makes sense.




#2685761 Darren Helm re-signed: 5 years, $3.85m AAV

Posted by toby91_ca on 10 September 2016 - 08:46 PM

 

Probably the other teams that were interested in Helm when he was about to hit Free Agency. It was reported that he took a discount to stay.

 

https://www.reddit.c...g_helm_he_took/

I'd like to understand what teams were offering him more than $20M + no trade clause.....that for a 12-15 goal and 25-30 pt guy does not add up to a discount to me.




#2685567 Datsyuk Announcement to Officially Leave NHL

Posted by toby91_ca on 06 September 2016 - 10:26 AM

I've said it before, but will express again, his leaving has left a very bad taste in my mouth.  While I think the team will likely be better without him now, that's not the point.  He could have put the team in a very bad position and be much worse off without him...on hook with cap hit.  That's also not the point.

 

I'm all for a player deciding they don't want to play anymore, or retire due to injury, etc.  However, I don't think a player should decide to retire with time left on their contract (if they've signed past 35)...unless injured.  The thing is, if you are over 35 and sign a 2-3 year deal, at that point in your life, you're not going to all of a sudden decide that you don't want to play anymore.  This is why the cap hit stays if a player retires early (if signing past 35).  There is the thought that a player might not play out the contract, so if you sign something for 3 years, you better be committed to fulfilling the contract (i.e. not signing for 10 years to keep cap hit low and retiring early). 

 

So, even if he simply retired, I'd still have a bad taste in my mouth.  Magnifying that is that he hasn't retired from hockey, he simply didn't want to play in the NHL anymore and is now playing in another league.  I now all the family reasons, etc., but that stuff doesn't all of a sudden pop up and you can easily commit another 6-8 months away anyway.

 

I couldn't care less how well he plays in Russia for a couple reasons (1) I'm not pissed about missing him playing for the Wings, it's the principle and (2) regardless of the first reason, the KHL is so different than the NHL it is pointless to even look at stats and consider how that could translate.

 

I don't want to have  bad taste, because I really liked the guy as a player and a person, but I can't help it.




#2684053 Calle Jarnkrok

Posted by toby91_ca on 27 July 2016 - 12:31 PM

Someone would have to convince me why Helm is worth 2X what Jarnkrok is getting.

 

Maybe the value in the deal is term....which is very valuable to players...very few are going to have long careers in the league....getting a 6 year guaranteed contract is pretty valuable for most.




#2683791 Hall of Fame Worthy

Posted by toby91_ca on 25 July 2016 - 08:06 AM

I used Carbonneau as an example of a guy that had the Selke's but didn't score enough, I suggested Datsyuk likely did score enough...while his scoring is low on its own, combined with Selke's will likely be enough.

 

I don't get the suggestions that he wasn't as good as Crosby that I've seen a lot of here.  I don't disagree, but why does that matter?  Do you need to be better than Crosby to get into the HOF?  Crosby will likely be seen as the best player to have started his career within the last 20 years....so he'll be in his first year of eligibility....so will a few others that weren't considered as good as him and there will be more that still get in as well, but take more time.




#2683621 Fans rank front offices....Wings 21st

Posted by toby91_ca on 22 July 2016 - 10:16 AM

It's probably a relatively fair assessment, but at the same time, this is the result of polling fans and only 200 of them, so the results don't really mean that much.




#2680593 Shea Weber for Pernal Karl Subban

Posted by toby91_ca on 30 June 2016 - 11:47 AM

Here's my view....if you start the discussion on Dmen by pulling a bunch of stats, that's where the discussion stops for me.

 

If you want to assess a winger vs. another winger, stats are more meaningful, less meaningful when you get to centers, but still meaningful....get even less when you get to Dmen.

 

Team Canada knows what they are doing, they have a lot of smart hockey minds making decisions and Weber tends to be one of, if not their 1st pick and Subban tends not to even make the team.  Not saying that end the discussion, but there is a reason for that.




#2677638 2016 SCF: San Jose Sharks vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Posted by toby91_ca on 14 June 2016 - 09:19 AM

Thornton is still a pretty good player and it makes total sense too.  His game has never been based on speed, so there is no reason why he couldn't operate at a fairly high level.  Similar situation with Jagr.  Jagr had a bit more speed, but no one would have thought of him as fast or that being an asset to his game.  Lidstrom was similar in that he didn't decline dramatically, was more of a slow decline, largely because his game was less focused on speed and physicality.  He was going to decline, everyone does, but it's wasn't as dramatic as you tend to see with other types of players.

 

It will be interesting to see how Ovechkin's career goes late into his 30's since he's the type of player I'd expect to decline quicker than others if my theory holds up.  




#2677575 2016 SCF: San Jose Sharks vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Posted by toby91_ca on 12 June 2016 - 10:25 PM

They got the Conn Smythe right.  Kessel had 3 more points, but Crosby was by far the more complete and more important player.

 

I honestly thought Kessel would win it, but didn't think he should.  Sometimes you wonder if they just look to who had the most points and not pay attention to the games and watch closely.  I thought Crosby was way more dominant later in the playoffs than he was early on, but the points seemed to follow the opposite.


Cullen won in 2006 with Carolina




#2676510 Datsyuk - someone who works for JLA told me he's sold his house

Posted by toby91_ca on 25 May 2016 - 09:18 AM

I'm not going to lie, some of all this is leaving a bad taste in my mouth, which is tough to admit.  At this point in his career, I don't think the team's on-ice performance will suffer because Datsyuk is not there, so I'm not dreaming of him coming back or anything, it just doesn't sit well with me that he isn't playing out the contract he signed.  If he didn't think he'd stay, he shouldn't have signed a 2 year deal, or whatever it was.  Those finding excuses, suggesting his ankle injury, etc. holds no value to me when you consider he went straight to the world championships after the season and will likely play in the KHL next season.

 

The biggest issue for me is the dead cap space for now, not missing the player (other than nostalgia).  I probably won't hold it against him too much, but for now, it does sting.