Wings Need on D and Glaring Inconsistencies

[WingsallTheway 383]

Correct me if I'm worng (i haven't watched much over the holidays), but wasn't this E's first game back? If so, I think whatever he did wrong, he should be given at least a little slack

The only time I noticed him was when he tried to skate backwards and fell down causing a breakaway. I'd say he has improved from earlier on in the season

edit:

He also held the puck for roughly 6 seconds in our zone at one point, panicked, and fired a pass to the opposing team with absolutely nobody in the area.

Edited January 3, 2016 by WingsallTheway

[Bill Berzeench 310]

http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2013/12/4/5167404/nhl-stats-made-simple-part-1-corsi-fenwick

Study up, brother. Yes, it's important to know the quality of competition stats when measuring a player's effectiveness.

[Buppy 1,720]

In my opinion, there's still a lot of work to be done on quality of competition metrics. It's widely considered that over a significant period of time, competition will balance out. Looking at stats like CF% of competition seems to confirm that, since the range is pretty narrow. But I don't think it's comprehensive enough. If better players are playing against better players, you'd expect it to negatively impact the stats of both.

For instance, Kronwall and Smith have a similar level of competition based off the common measurements. But I looked at some matchups on war-on-ice (all games this year against, Boston, Buffalo, and Carolina). In those games, Kronwall spent about 35% of his ice time against players with 20+ points, 27% against players between 11-19 points, and 38% against players with under 10. Smith was 24% against the top scorers, 25% against the middle, and 50 against the bottom. Seems to be much more significant than suggested by the usual QoC metrics.

However, no matter how you look at it, Kronwall has not been particularly good so far this year.

[Bill Berzeench 310]

In my opinion, there's still a lot of work to be done on quality of competition metrics. It's widely considered that over a significant period of time, competition will balance out. Looking at stats like CF% of competition seems to confirm that, since the range is pretty narrow. But I don't think it's comprehensive enough. If better players are playing against better players, you'd expect it to negatively impact the stats of both.

For instance, Kronwall and Smith have a similar level of competition based off the common measurements. But I looked at some matchups on war-on-ice (all games this year against, Boston, Buffalo, and Carolina). In those games, Kronwall spent about 35% of his ice time against players with 20+ points, 27% against players between 11-19 points, and 38% against players with under 10. Smith was 24% against the top scorers, 25% against the middle, and 50 against the bottom. Seems to be much more significant than suggested by the usual QoC metrics.

However, no matter how you look at it, Kronwall has not been particularly good so far this year.

Good analysis, brah. I agree.

[GoWings1905 2,694]

Correct me if I'm worng (i haven't watched much over the holidays), but wasn't this E's first game back? If so, I think whatever he did wrong, he should be given at least a little slack

Second game back and I would be more willing to overlook it if he wasn't a steaming pile of trash before the injury too.

[sjr2012 439]

i agree on keeping marchenko in over big E and next year id seriously think about trying to figure out a way to get rid of him id rather have these pairings

Kronwall Green

DD Smith

XO March

Jensen

[LeftWinger 4,961]

I like it. I've been off the E badwagon for a long time now, and would love to trade him. In your setup, we also lose Sproul, but maybe he and E can be in a package deal to get us a sniper or someone with pugnaciousness.

XO, Marchy and Jensen are all ready to make the jump....Marchy already has!

Edited January 5, 2016 by LeftWinger

[Bill Berzeench 310]

I like it. I've been off the E badwagon for a long time now, and would love to trade him. In your setup, we also lose Sproul, but maybe he and E can be in a package deal to get us a sniper or someone with pugnaciousness.

XO, Marchy and Jensen are all ready to make the jump....Marchy already has!

And Robbie Russo, as well. Ericsson, Kronwall, and Kindl = 12 million of cap hit. I'd rather have Stamkos.

[krsmith17 7,191]

Ken Holland said Quincey likely to be cleared on weekend. Before that happens, Wings need to clear some cap space. Wouldn't reveal how much.

[Bill Berzeench 310]

Ken Holland said Quincey likely to be cleared on weekend. Before that happens, Wings need to clear some cap space. Wouldn't reveal how much.

Or have Quincey have a setback. Holland's player and cap management is so bad that his injury management has to be miraculous.

[krsmith17 7,191]

I think Marchenko has been good enough to uphold a spot in the lineup, however with everyone healthy, I think he may get sent down...

There's no question, a trade should be made, but we all know that isn't happening...

[Bill Berzeench 310]

I think Marchenko has been good enough to uphold a spot in the lineup, however with everyone healthy, I think he may get sent down...

There's no question, a trade should be made, but we all know that isn't happening...

Exactly. Holland doesnt have a clue.

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

Exactly. Holland doesnt have a clue.

Or... no one wants to trade for Kindl and we don't want to trade the other Dmen.

[matt198913 932]

A trade should absolutely be made. See if someone will take E's awful contract for a bag of pucks.

[e_prime 1,936]

Or... no one wants to trade for Kindl and we don't want to trade the other Dmen.

...but don't forget that if Kindl is waived, we'll be GIVING AWAY a former first rounder FOR NOTHING. (good for nothing holland. grumblegrumble.)

Sarcasm aside. Trading a guy like Kindl isn't 2k15 or whatever.

Sure, somebody might want or even be willing to be nice and take Kindl off our hands, but they aren't willing to pay anything for him.

"Just trade him for a late rounder" people say. Sure... but to whom?

Any GM in the league can see we're in a pickle when it comes to number of guys on D.

Why would anyone do us a favor and give us a pick for a guy we don't want on the ice?

We can also toss him in as a side piece in a trade package, but that's just like a free car wash you get for filling up your car, but it's raining outside.

You don't give a single s*** about that car-wash... and if you just washed your car the other day (have similar d-men or your own developing d-men or a roster crunch on d-men) you certainly don't want another bloody car wash.

So, either you're okay with Kindl being a healthy scratch and sending Marchenko down, waiving Kindl and probably losing the guy for nothing, or have some patience until I team actually needs a guy like Kindl, or we can add him on to a package deal.

I don't wanna hear any of you complaining about how you want Kindl gone and the manner in which he leaves. #sterndad #lectureover

I'm still on the fence with Ericsson. In general, he was looking better this year, but that was before the injury and now he's seemingly regressed.

He's a frustrating player. Use your size. Play a safe game. Focus on your end of the ice. Defend. Mash dudes into the board. Clear the front of the net. Stop doing fancy s*** and just keep it simple. Let the other defensemen around you lead the charge, they are so much better at it than you.

[Bill Berzeench 310]

Kindl can be traded. Saying he has no value is absurd.

[Dominator2005 558]

Kindl has no value

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

Kindl can be traded. Saying he has no value is absurd.

Show me a comparable trade for a player whose been a scratch for almost half the year and carries something close to Kindl's caphit (2.4 mill for this year and the next - 3 mill in real salary next year).

If Kindl's gone it's through the waiver wire.

I do think Marchenko has earned a spot on the team, but I'm not sure that he'll play once Q is back. And if he's going to be the 7th guy than it is still better for him (and GR) if he goes down and plays in the AHL. E is probably the most deserving of the healthy scratch out of those who would be left in that situation (Kron,E,Q,DK,Green,Smith,March), But I just don't see that happening.

[kickazz 5,459]

Unfortunately with Marchenko being the odd man out (since he's the only one with the-two way contract), the Wings will be down another right handed D-man. The pairings will be pretty damn "left heavy" aside from Green.

We go from 4 lefties and 2 rightys to 5 lefties and 1 righty. And I'm pretty sure our defense got a lot better when we had a bit more balance (from october onwards)

Edited January 6, 2016 by kickazz

[krsmith17 7,191]

I'm of the belief that no contract is untradeable, and in my opinion Kindl's is far from it. Obviously there won't be 29 teams offering up packages, but I would think that there would be a team out there that would be willing to give up something for him and take him on as a reclamation project of sorts. He's a former 1st round pick, 'relatively' young for a defenseman, and despite what LGW says, he's not 'that bad'. Maybe a late round pick or low tier prospect from a team like Edmonton, Columbus or Philadelphia... Nah, the Flyers would never take on a bad contract...

If that can't be done (I think it can), we should waive Kindl, and hope someone claims him. Marchenko has clearly earned a spot over him and I honestly don't want to see any defensemen sent down to Grand Rapids. Right now we have a perfect lefty - righty back end with Ouellet - Russo, Paetsch - Jensen, and Lashoff - Sproul. If Marchenko were to be demoted, I think they would lean toward keeping their two veterans in the lineup and take out one of the righties, likely Sproul. And that would suck, considering the year he's been having down there...

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

I'm of the belief that no contract is untradeable, and in my opinion Kindl's is far from it. Obviously there won't be 29 teams offering up packages, but I would think that there would be a team out there that would be willing to give up something for him and take him on as a reclamation project of sorts. He's a former 1st round pick, 'relatively' young for a defenseman, and despite what LGW says, he's not 'that bad'. Maybe a late round pick or low tier prospect from a team like Edmonton, Columbus or Philadelphia... Nah, the Flyers would never take on a bad contract...

If that can't be done (I think it can), we should waive Kindl, and hope someone claims him. Marchenko has clearly earned a spot over him and I honestly don't want to see any defensemen sent down to Grand Rapids. Right now we have a perfect lefty - righty back end with Ouellet - Russo, Paetsch - Jensen, and Lashoff - Sproul. If Marchenko were to be demoted, I think they would lean toward keeping their two veterans in the lineup and take out one of the righties, likely Sproul. And that would suck, considering the year he's been having down there...

We agree on most things, but I have to strongly disagree with this line. Weiss, Bryzgalov, Mike Richards (2nd contract) etc. There are contracts that people won't take on as shown by the history of buyouts and buried contracts. Now, Kindl isn't in the same category of these guys, but their are definitely contract that you can't trade.

Realistically we're only trading him if we eat some of that contract. KIndl isn't a bad player and should find a spot on another team, but 2.4 is hefty for a guy who's in his seventh year and has only held onto to a consistent roster spot for like less than a year's time in that span. I don't think you'd take on that salary and give up any kind of asset.

I see your point about the GR roster. Maybe Wings would be more inclined to leave Marchenko up even if he is the 7th guys since they're well stocked there. Then Kindl would go down and either get claimed, replace Lashoff or Paetsch, or sit.

[krsmith17 7,191]

When I say no contract is untradeable, that includes the option of eating some salary. I don't think Kindl's contract is nearly as bad as the ones you mentioned, but the option is there to eat some of it, if it came down to that.

I'd be okay with Kindl taking either of the vets spots in GR, but obviously I'd prefer to trade him before it came to that. I do believe he would be an upgrade over a few number 6 guys in the league.

[Bill Berzeench 310]

When I say no contract is untradeable, that includes the option of eating some salary. I don't think Kindl's contract is nearly as bad as the ones you mentioned, but the option is there to eat some of it, if it came down to that.

I'd be okay with Kindl taking either of the vets spots in GR, but obviously I'd prefer to trade him before it came to that. I do believe he would be an upgrade over a few number 6 guys in the league.

I feel the same way you do here. Problem is Kenny's activity level. Not the players.

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

To me, when you eat salary, you're only trading a fraction of a contract - so I think that's different, but it's just semantics. I would agree that no player is untradeble due to creative deal making, but for players like Kindl on the fringe of the roster it often depends on the luck of another team being in need or to want to take a chance on them.

Anyway, at the beginning of the year there was battling opinions between Smith and Kindl being the castoff and Smith has made a case for himself.

Once Q is back, I think the D are pretty deep. E's game still worries me, but Bill reminded me that he's only signed for 3 more years so that contract really isn't that bad.

Edited January 7, 2016 by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

[e_prime 1,936]

I feel the same way you do here. Problem is Kenny's activity level. Not the players.

You have no idea what Ken Holland's day to day is. Just sayin'.

Now if you're saying that KH should be a wheeler dealer making moves across the league with the entirety of the roster, I'd say:

This is not the time for that.

1. You've got a brand new head coach and staff learning the ins and outs of this roster, give them a chance to play the guys you've (GMKH) put in place. Sure, we're getting into the season so they should be figuring it out, but we're still more than six weeks out to the trade deadline. So KH still has some time to make some moves and the coaches have some time too.

2. You've got two highly touted free agents (Green/Richards) and some prospects that are up and playing pretty much full time (Marchy/Pulkks/Jurco) added to a roster that need to mesh with the team that's been the core/mainstays for the last couple years.

3. You've got players who under the previous head coach were not given the opportunity to play "their game" or allowed to see regular icetime in the system set forth by that previous headcoach. (Smith/KIndl/Pullks/Jurco)

4. This is a team that while it could use some upgrades, does not need a major overhaul. Keeping Kindl on the roster does not diminish our team to the point of "this guy limits our ability to ice a good team and is costing us games."

That being said:

1. Ken Holland works the phone. He kicks some tires, but in terms of activity, he's no Holmgren. He's not going to make a knee jerk decision just because there's a little roster pile up. One injury and you're not in a roster pile up. He likes his depth and he will keep it for as long as he possibly can.

That's the way he rolls and to think that he's going to change that stance because of Jakob Kindl is silly.

2. I, like many others on LGW, have been calling for/begging/praying for a trade of a d-man for a couple years.

KH is a stubborn bastard and listens to none of us. So...

Anyway, at the beginning of the year there was battling opinions between Smith and Kindl being the castoff and Smith has made a case for himself.

Once Q is back, I think the D are pretty deep. E's game still worries me, but Bill reminded me that he's only signed for 3 more years so that contract really isn't that bad.

It would have been nice to think that they both could make cases for themselves so that Kindl had some more value than just a "former first rounder" that's "barely been/has not been able to hang on to the six spot."

Whether he can be traded or not is not my concern, it's what he's actually worth. ...because it ain't much, and ppl are going to ***** to no end if KH doesn't get "something" for him.

Edited January 7, 2016 by e_prime