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sputman

Wings In Running For Victor Ejdsell

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5 hours ago, Echolalia said:

Passion =/= competency.

I didn't say it does, but I would say it is a prerequisite. Those with the passion and interest needed to become a student of the game; to actually be an expert on talent analysis, or game theory, or what have you, are likely to have tried playing at some point.

I don't buy the "NHL club" angle. Sure, former players naturally have connections, and are thus more likely to find an opportunity than a common fan, but I would argue that they also have a high aptitude. Not because they are former players, but because the same qualities that helped them become players help to make them better scouts/coaches/GMs/etc. Of course, those who aren't former players can have those same qualities as well. And there are a large number of people in management positions who weren't, which proves there is plenty of opportunity for those not in "the Club".

There was never any assertion that a non-former-player or random fan can't become just as good or better than a pro, just a specific comment about a specific person. But in general, an average fan isn't going to be near as competent as someone doing it for a living, if for no other reason than the amount of time invested in gathering and analyzing all the information. You do something 40+ hours a week, every week, as your full-time job, you're likely to be well-informed at the very least. Spend an hour on a Saturday, or ******* around online at your real job hoping your boss doesn't catch you...then maybe you never even hear of one of the top prospects, and other people rightfully question your expertise.

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13 minutes ago, Buppy said:

I didn't say it does, but I would say it is a prerequisite. Those with the passion and interest needed to become a student of the game; to actually be an expert on talent analysis, or game theory, or what have you, are likely to have tried playing at some point.

I don't buy the "NHL club" angle. Sure, former players naturally have connections, and are thus more likely to find an opportunity than a common fan, but I would argue that they also have a high aptitude. Not because they are former players, but because the same qualities that helped them become players help to make them better scouts/coaches/GMs/etc. Of course, those who aren't former players can have those same qualities as well. And there are a large number of people in management positions who weren't, which proves there is plenty of opportunity for those not in "the Club".

There was never any assertion that a non-former-player or random fan can't become just as good or better than a pro, just a specific comment about a specific person. But in general, an average fan isn't going to be near as competent as someone doing it for a living, if for no other reason than the amount of time invested in gathering and analyzing all the information. You do something 40+ hours a week, every week, as your full-time job, you're likely to be well-informed at the very least. Spend an hour on a Saturday, or ******* around online at your real job hoping your boss doesn't catch you...then maybe you never even hear of one of the top prospects, and other people rightfully question your expertise.

Its the same as any business. If you have connections its easier to rise through the ranks. That doesnt mean someonw cant work their tails off and hurdle that.

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Fwiw, my post was to compliment the many knowledgeable people on here and just show that anyone can do it, you don't have to be an NHL insider. I wasn't even referring to myself. But someone likes to make it all about me. All the time.

I'm don't only post on Saturday and hope my boss don't catch me. When you've done what I've done for as long as I've done it, there is no getting caught. I do what I want, because my job gets done when it's time to work.

But, if I were to become a scout, it'd be a North American one! :lol:

Now let's get back to topic.

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20 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

Andersson hasn't been finding much lately.

Sent from my LGLS676 using Tapatalk
 

I think Axel is going to be a good one...He found Nosek for free and I think he's a definite bottom 6 C...Marchenko is an NHL Dman from the 7th round...Nyquist has performed better than the average mid round guy (making the NHL would clear that bar).  Has he found another HOF guy in the 7th round?  No...then again, the book hasn't closed on the career of Jonathon Ericsson... :)

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4 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Fwiw, my post was to compliment the many knowledgeable people on here and just show that anyone can do it, you don't have to be an NHL insider. I wasn't even referring to myself. But someone likes to make it all about me. All the time.

I'm don't only post on Saturday and hope my boss don't catch me. When you've done what I've done for as long as I've done it, there is no getting caught. I do what I want, because my job gets done when it's time to work.

But, if I were to become a scout, it'd be a North American one! :lol:

Now let's get back to topic.

If I were an NHL owner and hired you, I would send you to Sweden just for the irony.

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12 hours ago, Buppy said:

***snip snip**

I disagree that it's necessarily a prerequisite.  I know many people who have no great interest in what they do, and are stellar at their jobs.  Conversely, I know a lot of people with a ton of passion for their job who aren't very good at all.  Hell, Chris Osgood has the personality of a potato and is terrible on camera, yet astonishingly he's still employed.  Anyone who wasn't in "the club" with that lack of camera presence wouldn't have even made it past the interview stage, let alone maintained their employment for this many years.

In terms of a job like a general manager, I personally think someone without a great deal of passion for hockey itself but with an established actuarial career and a solid understanding of statistical analysis and mathematically predicting likelihood of outcomes would make an excellent candidate for the job.  And if he's passionate about data analysis and making deals with others, even better.  The passion for hockey/direct hockey experience I have personal doubts really matters all that much.  In fact it may even introduce bias that may lead to poor decision making.  Yet in today's NHL there are so many GMs with a high pedigree in terms of actually playing hockey on the big stage.  Not sure how much prior experience they collectively had in managing salaries, objectively evaluating talent and efficiency of talent vs cost, deal-making, communication skills etc.  Sure seems like a club to me. 

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30 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

The reality is that this kid is playing in the second tier league there.  It's like getting excited about a kid tearing up the ECHL

True, but you never know. Look at what Eric Thames is doing for the Brewers right now. As a team you have to explore all options.

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5 minutes ago, kliq said:

True, but you never know. Look at what Eric Thames is doing for the Brewers right now. As a team you have to explore all options.

BEAST. What a pick up that was. A small consolation prize after how lame they were to watch after Lucroy and Gomez were traded.

But I think it'd be worth it to at least give this guy a shot, if he chooses to sign with the Red Wings. MORE SIZE!! :w00t:

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3 hours ago, Echolalia said:

I disagree that it's necessarily a prerequisite.  I know many people who have no great interest in what they do, and are stellar at their jobs.  Conversely, I know a lot of people with a ton of passion for their job who aren't very good at all.  Hell, Chris Osgood has the personality of a potato and is terrible on camera, yet astonishingly he's still employed.  Anyone who wasn't in "the club" with that lack of camera presence wouldn't have even made it past the interview stage, let alone maintained their employment for this many years.

In terms of a job like a general manager, I personally think someone without a great deal of passion for hockey itself but with an established actuarial career and a solid understanding of statistical analysis and mathematically predicting likelihood of outcomes would make an excellent candidate for the job.  And if he's passionate about data analysis and making deals with others, even better.  The passion for hockey/direct hockey experience I have personal doubts really matters all that much.  In fact it may even introduce bias that may lead to poor decision making.  Yet in today's NHL there are so many GMs with a high pedigree in terms of actually playing hockey on the big stage.  Not sure how much prior experience they collectively had in managing salaries, objectively evaluating talent and efficiency of talent vs cost, deal-making, communication skills etc.  Sure seems like a club to me. 

I think you're looking at my comments the wrong way. Like I said, of course someone outside of hockey could have the skills to be successful. My point was that people who are likely to pursue careers in hockey (especially at the NHL level) are quite likely to have a high level of interest in hockey, and as such there's a good chance they have played at some level. Sure, maybe 1/3rd of the management/coaching/scouting positions are filled with former players, but that means 2/3rds aren't. If it's a "club", it's not all that exclusive.

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41 minutes ago, Buppy said:

I think you're looking at my comments the wrong way. Like I said, of course someone outside of hockey could have the skills to be successful. My point was that people who are likely to pursue careers in hockey (especially at the NHL level) are quite likely to have a high level of interest in hockey, and as such there's a good chance they have played at some level. Sure, maybe 1/3rd of the management/coaching/scouting positions are filled with former players, but that means 2/3rds aren't. If it's a "club", it's not all that exclusive.

I think those numbers are pretty conservative.  Ken Holland played in the NHL, Kris Draper, Chris Chelios, Kirk Maltby, Jiri Fischer all supposedly have front office or coaching positions in some capacity.  Osgood, Mickey Redmond, Darren Eliot all have NHL experience and are now in front of a camera.  And there's people like Jim Nill, Yzerman, Larry Murphy etc that the Wings had but they moved on. Even if you want to say 33% is an accurate number, that's still a huge amount to mine from a single and quite exclusive source for non-hockey-playing careers, particularly when several of those people likely aren't the best option for the job at hand given their paucity of experience in other fields that are now suddenly more relevant to what they're doing.  My point, of course, is that those numbers are quite disproportionate, and almost certainly at the expense of the quality of work being put out.  Which, by definition, is a club-like system.

Edited by Echolalia

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6 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

The reality is that this kid is playing in the second tier league there.  It's like getting excited about a kid tearing up the ECHL

It's like getting a free draft pick. I think that's worth getting excited about. He's only 1 year above draft age. If he were 1 year younger and put up those numbers, we'd probably be talking about picking him in the middle to late rounds. Now we might get a late-bloomer without giving up any assets. I don't see any reason to throw a wet blanket on this thing.

The tier II league is a consideration, but he lead that league by 5 points in what was his first full pro year. That is something.

http://stats.swehockey.se/Players/Statistics/ScoringLeaders/7157

And FWIW, Elias Patterson is from the same league and he's listed #2 in central scouting for European skaters, is in many top 10 draft rankings and I've seen as high as #5 overall. Ejdsell is obviously 3 years older, but he did outproduced Patterson and they were both in their first full pro year.

Ejdsell's story seems to be that he was in the system of Farjestad (tier I SHL) and he did play in the SHL, but after they only gave him 22 games over a year and a half, he went to the lower league for more opportunity and broke out. Maybe just a late bloomer? Younger tall player sometimes do have to get used to their size. Maybe Farjestad overlooked him or buried him? Or maybe maybe he's nothing but an AHL player. Hope he signs so we can find out. 

Edited by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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7 minutes ago, PavelValerievichDatsyuk said:

It's like getting a free draft pick. I think that's worth getting excited about. He's only 1 year above draft age. If he were 1 year younger and put up those numbers, we'd probably be talking about picking him in the middle to late rounds. Now we might get a late-bloomer without giving up any assets. I don't see any reason to throw a wet blanket on this thing.

The tier II league is a consideration, but remember that he lead that league by 5 points in what was his first full pro year. That is something.

http://stats.swehockey.se/Players/Statistics/ScoringLeaders/7157

And FWIW, Elias Patterson is from the same league and he's listed #2 in central scouting for European skaters, is in many top 10 draft rankings and I've seen as high as #5 overall. Ejdsell is obviously 3 years older, but he did outproduced Patterson and they were both in their first full pro year.

Ejdsell's story seems to be that he was in the system of farjestad (tier I SHL) and he did play in the SHL, but after they only gave him 22 games over a year and a half, he went to the lower league for more opportunity and broke out. Maybe just a late bloomer? Younger tall player sometimes do have to get used to their size. Or maybe maybe he's nothing but an AHL player. Hope he signs so we can find out. 

I'm sure Dickie can help you with that.

Pick up Ejdsell and draft Pettersson. That would be swede.

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1 hour ago, Echolalia said:

I think those numbers are pretty conservative.  Ken Holland played in the NHL, Kris Draper, Chris Chelios, Kirk Maltby, Jiri Fischer all supposedly have front office or coaching positions in some capacity.  Osgood, Mickey Redmond, Darren Eliot all have NHL experience and are now in front of a camera.  And there's people like Jim Nill, Yzerman, Larry Murphy etc that the Wings had but they moved on. Even if you want to say 33% is an accurate number, that's still a huge amount to mine from a single and quite exclusive source for non-hockey-playing careers, particularly when several of those people likely aren't the best option for the job at hand given their paucity of experience in other fields that are now suddenly more relevant to what they're doing.  My point, of course, is that those numbers are quite disproportionate, and almost certainly at the expense of the quality of work being put out.  Which, by definition, is a club-like system.

Out of 35-ish positions in management/coaching/scouting (not counting medical and things like VP of finance) we have like 10-12 former NHL players. There's certainly a s*** ton more former players than that, especially if you include washout prospects like Holland.

There is undeniably opportunity in the NHL, not to mention far more in lower levels, for those outside "the club". While it may be easier for a former player, I think that's no different from any other industry...who you know matters. But former player or not, I don't think a person is going to retain their position (much less move up the ranks) unless they show a high level of aptitude. 

Yeah, there are probably people outside the NHL who would be better in some position than someone in the league, but I don't think it's accurate to say "at the expense of the quality of work being put out" or suggest that NHL management/coaching is not elite. I don't think any industry is comprised entirely of only the absolute best, if for no other reason than people and industries are constantly changing. 

But this is all getting way far-afield. If you're trying to say the average fan is just as knowledgeable or competent as an average NHL employee, I would say it's an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. We sit here commenting on this kid, or draft prospects, or whatever, as if we've done any scouting ourselves when all we've done is read pared-down-for-concise-publication versions of some actual scout's work, maybe watched some s*** quality highlight reel. By definition that makes us at best a pared-down-shadow of whoever provided that info.

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2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I'm sure Dickie can help you with that.

Pick up Ejdsell and draft Pettersson. That would be swede.

At least Ejdsell plays RW. He may not be RH'd, but at least it's a needed position. Pettersson is a LW, we don't need that position.

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1 minute ago, LeftWinger said:

At least Ejdsell plays RW. He may not be RH'd, but at least it's a needed position. Pettersson is a LW, we don't need that position.

Eh, I wouldn't really say we're deeper on one wing. Pretty much all of our forwards can play either wing.

I would like more right-handed shots in our forward group, though.

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1 hour ago, Buppy said:

Out of 35-ish positions in management/coaching/scouting (not counting medical and things like VP of finance) we have like 10-12 former NHL players. There's certainly a s*** ton more former players than that, especially if you include washout prospects like Holland.

There is undeniably opportunity in the NHL, not to mention far more in lower levels, for those outside "the club". While it may be easier for a former player, I think that's no different from any other industry...who you know matters. But former player or not, I don't think a person is going to retain their position (much less move up the ranks) unless they show a high level of aptitude. 

Yeah, there are probably people outside the NHL who would be better in some position than someone in the league, but I don't think it's accurate to say "at the expense of the quality of work being put out" or suggest that NHL management/coaching is not elite. I don't think any industry is comprised entirely of only the absolute best, if for no other reason than people and industries are constantly changing. 

But this is all getting way far-afield. If you're trying to say the average fan is just as knowledgeable or competent as an average NHL employee, I would say it's an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. We sit here commenting on this kid, or draft prospects, or whatever, as if we've done any scouting ourselves when all we've done is read pared-down-for-concise-publication versions of some actual scout's work, maybe watched some s*** quality highlight reel. By definition that makes us at best a pared-down-shadow of whoever provided that info.

I'm not suggesting I or anyone on the forums personally knows more about these positions than the people currently in them, but I do think there are way more people that are accepted into said positions based more on the fact they played in the NHL than any other merit.  Yzerman wanted to be a GM.  They immediately made him special assistant to the GM to learn directly from Ken Holland.  I wonder if the same offer would have been handed to a guy with years of managerial or actuarial experience who expressed the same interest.  Osgood wanted to be a tv analyst and was immediately given the job.  I wonder if the same opportunity would be given to the intern who's been studying the field all through college and invested years of time and money and effort to being the best he can be at it.

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