LeftWinger

Official 2018 NHL Amateur Entry Draft Discussion Thread

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On 1/5/2018 at 6:39 PM, Dabura said:

I'm starting to kinda lean in this direction as I learn more and more about more and more of these players.

I mean, let me be clear: I'm not uninspired by Svechnikov, Boqvist, Zadina, Hughes, Tkachuk. Far from it. To me, they're looking like your safest bets for a franchise cornerstone player right now (beyond Dahlin, of course). They're all exciting, they're all tantalizing, any one of them would be a huge addition to the Wings' system. At the same time, though, what makes this draft class special -- IMO, the reason why this is widely considered an extremely deep class -- is that there isn't necessarily going to be much talent separation between, say, #5 and #20.

We're looking at a very big pool of very good players, a much bigger pool than we're used to seeing. If Evan Bouchard (who, like I've said, I'm really high on) were in last year's class, he probably would've gone in the top ten. Joe Veleno might've been a top-five pick last year. But, as things currently stand, Bouchard and Veleno and a busload of similarly high-end-yet-surprisingly-underhyped players are kind of stuck in the shadow of some players who really might not be any better than them. Bouchard, Veleno, et al. aren't the dazzling offense-weighted weapons that guys like Boqvist and Zadina are, but you could be on to something when you say they're more well-rounded and perhaps more desirable because of it.

I'll put it this way: anyone who gets taken within the first 45 selections in this draft has the potential to become a big-time impact player in the NHL. That's the case with every draft, but I think it's especially true this time around. I'm expecting this draft to produce a relatively high number of homeruns and I'm expecting many of them to be sleepers. Wings fans won't want to hear it, but trading down could be the smart play here.

I am one Wings fan who totally agrees with you and would not be shocked if Holland does that. Although I would still stick to my earlier post IF the first pick is in the top 6. Any firsts after that, I would be totally cool with trading down especially if if adds another 1st or 2nd or allows KH to get rid of a bad contract.

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I am not sure if people around here put much stock in TSN Craig's List. But Craig Button has Svechnikov 4th now.

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-dahlin-cemented-top-status-at-world-juniors-1.962249 

Svecnikov was sitting 2nd I think for most of this year and the 2nd half of last year. I wonder if he could really fall out of the top 3. I wonder if we could get lucky and get him 4 if we get a bit of lottery luck. I doubt it tho.

I mainly use TSN when I look up ranking for draft prospects myself. Craig been fairly decent in the pass I'd say.

I think we will have anywhere from 6th - 10th pick in the draft. I like what I hear and seen from Hughes. I am also a MI fan, so I could be a bit bias. I've seen him ranked around 5th -13th whenever I've googled up on him, mainly 6-8th. I think we have a good chance at Hughes. 

 

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McKenzie and Button are the two best sources when it comes to Draft Rankings in my opinion.

As much as I think we should take a center and defenseman with our two first round picks (assuming we get another one at the deadline...), it'd be hard to pass on Svechnikov or Tkatchuk if they're available. You could throw Zadina in there as well. We should be taking best player available, I just don't like how all three of those guys are left-handed wingers.

I'd be okay with trading back if we're missing out on Dahlin, and if it's for a big return. The Islanders have two firsts (12 and 17). Imagine having three 1st's, and three 2nd's in this draft. Any of Hughes, Wilde, Bouchard, Dobson, Merkley, Woo as a defenseman taken outside of the top 5 in the first.

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18 hours ago, xault said:

I am not sure if people around here put much stock in TSN Craig's List. But Craig Button has Svechnikov 4th now.

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-dahlin-cemented-top-status-at-world-juniors-1.962249 

Svecnikov was sitting 2nd I think for most of this year and the 2nd half of last year. I wonder if he could really fall out of the top 3. I wonder if we could get lucky and get him 4 if we get a bit of lottery luck. I doubt it tho.

I mainly use TSN when I look up ranking for draft prospects myself. Craig been fairly decent in the pass I'd say.

I think we will have anywhere from 6th - 10th pick in the draft. I like what I hear and seen from Hughes. I am also a MI fan, so I could be a bit bias. I've seen him ranked around 5th -13th whenever I've googled up on him, mainly 6-8th. I think we have a good chance at Hughes. 

 

1st bold: I am not really surprised. I'm not sure a Winger should ever be drafted in the top 5 unless they're hands down better than anyone else. Its a really good draft this year, so draft D and C. I'd still take him tho cuz I think having both Svech bros on a line with Rass would be awesome.

2nd bold: Entirely possible, but I am expecting a top 6. Unless Boqvist, Hughes, Tkachuk or Zadina are available, trade down.

 

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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17 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

1st bold: I am not really surprised. I'm not sure a Winger should ever be drafted in the top 5 anyway. Draft D and C. I'd still take him tho cuz I think having both Svech bros on a line with Rass would be awesome.

2nd bold: Entirely possible, but I am expecting a top 6. Unless Boqvist, Hughes, Tkachuk or Zadina are available, trade down.

Seriously? You don't pass up on elite wingers just because of position. You take best player available. That's like saying the Caps should have passed over Ovechkin or the Hawks should have passed over Kane. Sure, if all else is equal, you take the center or defenseman, but if there's a significant difference (which there seems to be with Svechnikov), you take the best player. 

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Seriously? You don't pass up on elite wingers just because of position. You take best player available. That's like saying the Caps should have passed over Ovechkin or the Hawks should have passed over Kane. Sure, if all else is equal, you take the center or defenseman, but if there's a significant difference (which there seems to be with Svechnikov), you take the best player. 

True enough, but I'd still  rather have the center, or Dman.

Edited by F.Michael

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2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Seriously? You don't pass up on elite wingers just because of position. You take best player available. That's like saying the Caps should have passed over Ovechkin or the Hawks should have passed over Kane. Sure, if all else is equal, you take the center or defenseman, but if there's a significant difference (which there seems to be with Svechnikov), you take the best player. 

I agree, you must have posted while I was editing mine. I went back and read it and realized how ridiculous it sounded as it was. Yes, There are years where you have an Ovie. A generational talent you take. I realize there are times you do, but they better be elite or the other positions better be weak. If its a Laine and then a drop in talent then you take him.

But there seems to be a lot of good talent this year and I don't know that he's that much better than others in the top 10 at more desirable positions. He may not even be the best forward in the eyes of some teams. If this was last year for example, Svech would go much higher, this year I think he goes lower potentially. I would still take him if he's there, but I could see him drop down a couple of spots and some D go higher than expected. I wouldn't be surprised to see a run on defenseman early on either. As many as 7 in the top 10.

A few weeks ago, I would say he almost certainly goes 2nd behind Dahlin, but I dont think its as certain now as it was.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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6 hours ago, F.Michael said:

True enough, but I'd still  rather have the center, or Dman.

Absolutely. If all else is equal, every team takes the center over the winger. If everything is equal between a center and a defenseman, I think then it's okay to look at organizational need. For us, I'd take the defenseman. You never pass on the elite winger for the very good center or defenseman though, unless you're trading down...

6 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I agree, you must have posted while I was editing mine. I went back and read it and realized how ridiculous it sounded as it was. Yes, There are years where you have an Ovie. A generational talent you take. I realize there are times you do, but they better be elite or the other positions better be weak. If its a Laine and then a drop in talent then you take him.

But there seems to be a lot of good talent this year and I don't know that he's that much better than others in the top 10 at more desirable positions. He may not even be the best forward in the eyes of some teams. If this was last year for example, Svech would go much higher, this year I think he goes lower potentially. I would still take him if he's there, but I could see him drop down a couple of spots and some D go higher than expected. I wouldn't be surprised to see a run on defenseman early on either. As many as 7 in the top 10.

A few weeks ago, I would say he almost certainly goes 2nd behind Dahlin, but I dont think its as certain now as it was.

Fair enough, but in this case, I do believe a winger (whether it's Svechnikov, Tkatchuk or Zadina) could be hands down better than anyone else available. There's no debate who the best young player in this draft is, and it's not even close. After Dahlin, depending on who you talk to, it could be a handful of different players. The thing is, most of them are wingers (all left handed). The only one in that next tier that isn't a winger, is Boqvist, and he may or may not be available when we make our selection.

If we're picking 3rd and Dahlin and Boqvist go 1, 2, we shouldn't go off the board for a center or defenseman. There are a bunch of defensemen outside of the top 5, but if we're in the top 5, we should either take best player available, or trade down and take one of the many defensemen that will be available.

I still believe if we really wanted Rasmussen in last year's draft, we could have traded down a few spots, and taken him around the 11-14 spot, while picking up another late 1st or early 2nd. Similar to what we did in the 2013 draft, trading back two spots to take Mantha at 20, and then Bertuzzi at 58.

Side not: Gabe Vilardi is finally healthy and has put up 9 points (2 goals, 7 assists) in his first 5 games...

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11 hours ago, kickazz said:

Just curious, how far down deep are people thinking this draft is? Like top 20 guaranteed to start NHL? I'm just wondering what they mean by "Strong draft" exactly. 

Do you mean start this season or future NHL regulars? For me, I would think more than 10 first rounders making the NHL this year would be a 'strong draft'. How many usually do? A handful maybe?Especially considering how many D could go in the first 10-20 picks. Also, I think we can count out whoever Wings pick, unless maybe its a lottery pick.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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17 hours ago, kickazz said:

Just curious, how far down deep are people thinking this draft is? Like top 20 guaranteed to start NHL? I'm just wondering what they mean by "Strong draft" exactly. 


I've heard this draft being compared to the 2003 draft for depth, in that you could get some high end talent outside of the top 10 (such as a Carter, Seabrook, Parise, Getzlaf, Burns, Kesler, Richards, Perry, Eriksson, Bergeron, Weber, Backes, Pavelski, Byfuglien, etc). But it also has the potential to be more top heavy (top 3-5) than most drafts, with the elite, potential generational talent in Dahlin, and potential super-stars in Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkatchuk, etc. I think it's the plethora of guys that will go in the first couple rounds that could be good to very good NHL players that is giving it the label of being a "strong draft" though.

If you're asking how many players will start next season in the NHL, my guess would be 3-5. How many will be NHL players (play at least 200 games), I'd say it could be as high as 45-50 from the first 2 rounds. Hopefully we can land at least 2 super-star to elite level guys with (hopefully) our 7+ picks in the first three rounds...

 

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http://www.isshockey.com/iss-hockey-releases-iss-top-31-january-rankings-top-prospects-2018-nhl-draft/

ISS as of the 10th:

 

1 Dahlin, Rasmus LD 4/13/2000 L 6.02 181 Vastra Frolunda SweE 1
2 Tkachuk, Brady C 9/16/1999 L 6.03.25* 196 Boston University H. E 3
3 Svechnikov, Andrei RW/C 3/26/2000 L 6.02* 186 Barrie OHL 2
4 Zadina, Filip RW 11/27/1999 L 6.00* 196 Halifax QMJHL 4
5 Wahlstrom, Oliver C 6/13/2000 R 6.00.75* 205 USA U18 NTDP 6
6 Bouchard, Evan RD 10/20/1999 R 6.01.75* 193 London OHL 13
7 Hughes, Quinn LD 10/14/1999 L 5.09.5* 170 U. of Michigan Big Ten 5
8 Boqvist, Adam LD 8/15/2000 R 5.11 170 Brynas IF Jr. SweJE 8
9 Kupari, Rasmus C 3/15/2000 R 6.01.25 183 Karpat Oulu FinE 10
10 Smith, Ty LD 3/24/2000 L 5.10.25* 176 Spokane WHL 11
11 Lundestrom, Isac C 11/6/1999 L 6.00.5 185 Lulea HF SweE 22
12 Veleno, Joseph C 1/13/2000 L 6.01* 195 Saint John QMJHL 7
13 Wilde, Bode RD 1/24/2000 R 6.02.25* 195 USA U18 NTDP 12
14 Farabee, Joel LW 2/25/2000 L 5.11.5* 164 USA U18 NTDP 14
15 Hayton, Barrett C 6/9/2000 L 6.00.75* 191 Sault Ste. Marie OHL 16
16 McIsaac, Jared LD 3/27/2000 L 6.01* 195 Halifax QMJHL 17
17 Denisenko, Grigori LW 6/24/2000 R 5.11 165 Yaroslavl Loko RusJr 18
18 Thomas, Akil C 1/2/2000 R 5.11* 169 Niagara OHL 15
19 McLeod, Ryan C 9/21/1999 L 6.02* 200 Mississauga OHL 9
20 Dobson, Noah RD 1/7/2000 R 6.02.75* 180 Acadie-Bathurst QMJHL 19
21 Groulx, Benoit-Olivier C 2/6/2000 L 6.00.75* 192 Halifax QMJHL 21
22 Alexeyev, Alexander RD 11/15/1999 R 6.03* 200 Red Deer WHL 20
23 Merkley, Ryan RD 8/14/2000 R 5.11.25* 170 Guelph OHL 23
24 Kaut, Martin RW 10/2/1999 R 6.01.5 176 Pardubice CzeE NR
25 Kotkaniemi, Jesperi C 7/6/2000 L 6.01.5* 188 Assat FinE 24
26 Woo, Jett RD 7/27/2000 R 5.11.75* 205 Moose Jaw WHL 27
27 Sutter, Riley RW 10/25/1999 R 6.03* 205 Everett WHL 25
28 McBain, Jack LW 1/6/2000 L 6.03 194 Toronto OJHL 26
29 Tychonick, Jonathan LD 3/3/2000 L 5.11.25 166 Penticton BCHL NR
30 Ginning, Adam RD 1/13/2000 L 6.03 196 Linkoping HC SweE 28
31 Noel, Serron RW 8/8/2000 R 6.04.75* 200 Oshawa OHL 31
                   
Goalies                  
                   
1 Ingham, Jacob G 6/10/2000 L 6.03.5* 186 Mississauga OHL 1
2 Rodrigue, Olivier G 7/6/2000 L 6.00.25* 159 Drummondville QMJHL 2
Edited by LeftWinger

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52 minutes ago, Keep Your Stick On the Ice said:

I would be more excited if management gets 2 more 1st round picks this year....

I agree, and it is very doable. At the very least I'd like to see us with two 1st's and three 2nd's.

I'd be shopping Green (1st / more if we're lucky), Tatar (2nd / maybe a 1st if we're lucky), Ouellet (4th), Booth (6th), along with anyone else that teams may be interested in. I'd also take high end prospects in place of picks for the former two...

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How about Green to Tampa for a 2nd and Foote, Tatar to Pit for a 1st, Nyquist to Vegas for a 2nd, Howard to Isles for Halak and a 4th, Mrazek to EDM for a 3rd, XO to MTL for a 4th, Ericsson to DAL for a 5th.

That would give us two 1sts, four 2nds, three 3rds, three 4ths, one 5th and two 6ths. That's 15 picks, Foote and Halak along with a ton of cap space for next season.

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What would be the advantage of trading Howard for Halak and a 4th? You're downgrading the goalie position with little to show for it. If were trading Mrazek, I would rather run with Howard and Coreau and then re-sign Howard next summer to a 2 year extension. Then look in house to replace him if someone becomes NHL ready by that point.

47 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

How about Green to Tampa for a 2nd and Foote, Tatar to Pit for a 1st, Nyquist to Vegas for a 2nd, Howard to Isles for Halak and a 4th, Mrazek to EDM for a 3rd, XO to MTL for a 4th, Ericsson to DAL for a 5th.

That would give us two 1sts, four 2nds, three 3rds, three 4ths, one 5th and two 6ths. That's 15 picks, Foote and Halak along with a ton of cap space for next season.

Not that I disagree with you, but if all those trades happened, how are you going to ice a team?

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2 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

How about Green to Tampa for a 2nd and Foote, Tatar to Pit for a 1st, Nyquist to Vegas for a 2nd, Howard to Isles for Halak and a 4th, Mrazek to EDM for a 3rd, XO to MTL for a 4th, Ericsson to DAL for a 5th.

That would give us two 1sts, four 2nds, three 3rds, three 4ths, one 5th and two 6ths. That's 15 picks, Foote and Halak along with a ton of cap space for next season.

Nyquist would bring back a better return than Tatar in my opinion. There's no way I'd trade both our goalies and count on Coreau. Everything else is somewhat believable, except for the fact that Holland won't do any of it...

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