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2019 Draft

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Ramblings (March 11) [DobberProspects]

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On Saturday, Kaapo Kakko scored his 21st goal of the season which moves him tied for first on the all-time list for under-18 players in the Finnish Liiga. Sasha Barkov played 10 more games in 2012-2013 when he had the same amount of goals. Kakko still has two games left in the season. Considering how hot he’s been lately, I’d bet on him breaking that record.

Kakko is more of a playmaker than a goal-scorer but he has a great shot, and he’s been using it more frequently after the World Juniors. He likely realized his teammates are unable to convert the scoring chances he creates for them, so he decided to start finishing them himself. Only Barkov and Mikael Granlund have scored more points than Kakko in their under-18 Liiga seasons.

 

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2 hours ago, HoweFan said:

Turcotte and Byrum are rising slightly and replacing Podkosin and Dach on my list.  I would be happy with anyone down to 6.  Podkolzin hasn't won me over yet.

1 - Hughes

2 - Kakko

3 - Cozens

4 - Byrum

5 - Turcotte

6 - Dach

7 - Podkolzin

8 - Krebs

9 - Zegras

10 - Suzuki

If I could settle on a list for more than five minutes, it probably would be similar to yours.

I think I like Byram as my #3 guy. But it's really close between Byram and Cozens. And if I think about it for five seconds, I dunno that I like Cozens much more than I like Podkolzin, who's probably in my 7-9 range but could be as high as 4, depending on my mood.

So, for me (and for most people, it seems), there still isn't a clear hierarchy in that group behind Hughes and Kakko. If our top pick falls outside the top two, drafting based on perceived need -- as opposed to BPA -- might be the way to go.

"We need a stud defenseman" --> Byram

"We need more goal-scoring prowess up front" --> Cozens

"We need more playmaking prowess up front" --> Dach, Zegras

"We need a two-way, all-situations warrior up front" --> Krebs, Turcotte, Podkolzin

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Speaking of Podkolzin...

Prospect Deep Dive: Vasili Podkolzin [DobberProspects]

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So where exactly should he be drafted? I don’t have a definite answer to that. His tools make him look like a top five pick, and his production in international tournaments has matched that. But his production in the Russian leagues looks more suitable for a top 20 pick. But as explained above, there are mitigating circumstances which should be taken into consideration.

For me, he’s part of the next group that comes after Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko. But that group has a few players, so Podkolzin could realistically be anywhere from number three to ten depending on the day. I have yet to see anything that makes me think he should fall outside the top 10. Obviously the season isn’t over yet but whatever he does in VHL playoffs or at the U18 Worlds is unlikely to change my opinion drastically. Even if he’s terrible or amazing for the rest of this season, I think he’s part of that same group based on his entire body of work.

Podkolzin has stated he wants to stay in Russia until he’s ready to play in the NHL. He has made it clear he doesn’t want to play in the CHL but he may not be crossing the pond to play in the AHL either. Some people could get scared by those comments but I’m not really concerned. He has two years remaining on his contract with SKA, and I believe he’s ready to jump straight to the NHL after that contract is over. Anyone drafting him should be prepared to wait two years before seeing him in the NHL. Perhaps that pushes him down a few spots on draft boards but there are no guarantees the other prospects in the same range are ready to play in the NHL sooner than that.

 

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7 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

If we don't get 1 or 2, I will be pissed.  

Same here.

Hughes still #1 in most GMs/scouts opinion, or could Kakko go 1st overall like Hischier over Patrick?

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5 minutes ago, F.Michael said:

Same here.

Hughes still #1 in most GMs/scouts opinion, or could Kakko go 1st overall like Hischier over Patrick?

I'll be pretty shocked if Kakko goes 1st. I think a team like the Kings *might* do it, because Kakko screams "LA King." But, yeah, Hughes remains the consensus #1, and for good reason. I definitely expect him to go 1st.

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8 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

If we don't get 1 or 2, I will be pissed.  

I will be pissed if we don't finish 2nd to last as I have given up on us catching Ottawa. 

IF we finish 2nd from bottom I will be happy as the worst we can do is 5th overall and while not 1 or 2 it's still a good pick IMHO

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34 minutes ago, Dabura said:

Quenneville's gonna end up in Buffalo, isn't he.

Oh man - watch Eichel's ginger pubes explode :lol:

 

51 minutes ago, Dabura said:

As for how I'll feel if we don't get one of the top two picks...I'll feel bad. I'll feel really bad. But it wouldn't be a shocking result, even if we finish 30th or 31st. The odds are dumb:

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

 

28 minutes ago, AtlantaHotWings said:

I will be pissed if we don't finish 2nd to last as I have given up on us catching Ottawa. 

IF we finish 2nd from bottom I will be happy as the worst we can do is 5th overall and while not 1 or 2 it's still a good pick IMHO

We've dropped a few spots in the last 2 drafts...Time for us to jump a few, or at least stay where we're at.

Like others I'll be upset if we're picking 4th, or 5th...Oh well...

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27 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Sportsnet has Kakko in their top spot according to their most recent draft rankings. 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/sportsnets-2019-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-march/

Probably fishing for clicks. But, I mean, if we end up picking 2nd and the team ahead of us takes Kakko, I'll be doing cartwheels.

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4 hours ago, xault said:

What are some of the better goalies in this draft? Any clear late 1st rounders or 2nd round pick goalies? 

Spencer Knight is the big name. Seems like he's destined to go in the 1st round, possibly in the top 10 but more likely in the middle or second half of the 1st round.

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Hughes, Caufield set NTDP records heading toward NHL Draft [NHL.com]

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Caufield set the program record for goals with an assist from Hughes that gave him its points record.

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Hughes, a center who may be the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, had five assists to give him 190 points (60 goals, 130 assists) in two seasons with the Under-17 and Under-18 NTDP teams. He passed center Clayton Keller, now with the Arizona Coyotes, who had 189 points (71 goals, 118 assists) from 2014-16.

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Caufield, who played right wing on a line centered by Hughes, scored a career-high six goals to reach 105 and pass forward Phil Kessel (104 goals from 2003-05), now with the Pittsburgh Penguins, for the NTDP lead.

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Caufield, who scored the six goals on 10 shots, is four goals from tying Auston Matthews, now with the Toronto Maple Leafs, for the most goals in an NTDP season. Matthews scored 55 with the U-18 team in 2014-15.

Hughes (5-foot-10, 168 pounds) has nine multipoint games during a 12-game point streak and 74 points (20 goals, 54 assists) in 36 games this season. He was No. 1 in NHL Central Scouting's midterm rankings of North American skaters eligible for the 2019 draft.

Kessel is third on the NTDP list (180 points), followed by Kane (172), a forward for the Chicago Blackhawks; Jeremy Bracco (168), a forward prospect for the Toronto Maple Leafs; and Matthews (167).

 

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4 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Has Jack Hughes scored 50 in juniors yet.  Also why isn't Caufield projected to be higher in the draft?

Size. 5'7", 160lbs soaking wet.

Could be the next DeBrincat. Doubt he drops outside the 1st round though. Likely a mid 1st rounder.

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Size. 5'7", 160lbs soaking wet.

Could be the next DeBrincat. Doubt he drops outside the 1st round though. Likely a mid 1st rounder.

Ahh I see.

Does height matter as much as it did in the 90s and 00s anymore though? I feel like speed and smarts can make up for it now. 

Edited by kickazz

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7 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Ahh I see.

Does height matter as much as it did in the 90s and 00s anymore though? I feel like speed and smarts can make up for it now. 

Nah, I don't think height matters as much in the modern NHL, but being THAT small will definitely scare a few teams away.

He's basically the same size, and style of player as DeBrincat though. I think any team would be thrilled to get a DeBrincat in the top half of the first round.

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If we win the draft lottery and the Aves end up with pick 3 and pick 10, would anyone consider trading the number 1 overall for their two top 10 picks? eg: Would you trade Jack Hughes for Trevor Zegras / Dylan Cozens and Bowen Byram?

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

If we win the draft lottery and the Aves end up with pick 3 and pick 10, would anyone consider trading the number 1 overall for their two top 10 picks? eg: Would you trade Jack Hughes for Trevor Zegras / Dylan Cozens and Bowen Byram?

Jack Hughes all the way man. He's guaranteed talent for the long haul it looks like. 

Plus the guy is named Jack. Who names their kid Jack anymore? It's not like its 1950 or something. What a throwback.

Edited by kickazz

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1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Jack Hughes all the way man. He's guaranteed talent for the long haul it looks like. 

I'd probably lean toward keeping the number one pick too, only because of the unknown, who would be available at 3 and 10. We'd be guaranteed two really good players though. It would be an enticing offer for sure...

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