2024 TDL Thread

[kipwinger 8,756]

48 minutes ago, mackel said:

I think to land Hanafin you trade:

Berggren, Matta, 2nd, and one middling D prospect Bium, MacIsaac, etc

Maybe the pick is a 1st with a 3rd coming back from Calgary. 

These days I think packages are just too hard to predict because each team's cap and roster situation is so different. For instance, one of the reasons why Arizona got such a modest return for Chychrun (compared to expectations) is because they weren't willing to take a cap dump in return so they had to settle for less. I think it's more useful to think about it in terms of what's in play vs. what isn't. All of the assets you mentioned are all in play (plus a few others I'd imagine). And all the "untouchable" assets I listed above. I think you're in the ballpark but the actual perimeters of the trade are pretty hard to figure.

[Axl Foley 334]

13 hours ago, Dabura said:

One day we decided we were going to accept a set of values pushed by nerds who got pushed into lockers in high school 

You were one of those nerds, werent you?

1 hour ago, LeftWinger said:

---

AGE: 25
CAP HIT: $4.6M

6. Jakob Chychrun, LD - Ottawa Senators

It wouldn’t be a trade deadline without Chychrun on the Trade Watch List. Only now, he’s in Ottawa. Sens GM Steve Staios tried to calm the public waters, but as TFP’s David Pagnotta reported on Jan. 15, the Senators are listening and willing to consider trading him.

TEAMS REPORTEDLY LINKED:

Washington, Calgary, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Detroit

AGE: 29
CAP HIT: $3.65M

13. Frank Vatrano, RW - Anaheim Ducks

Vatrano will draw interest from contenders looking for more goal-scoring. He is on pace for a career-year offensively and is signed through the 2024-25 campaign. His price tag will be high and the Ducks are in no rush to move him, but teams will continue to call.

TEAMS REPORTEDLY LINKED:

Detroit, NY Islanders

AGE: 23
CAP HIT: $925,000

24. Jonatan Berggren, LW - Detroit Red Wings

As TFP’s David Pagnotta first reported in early-December, the Red Wings have been dangling Berggren as trade bait and seem willing to move him in the right deal. His entry-level contract expires after this season.

TEAMS REPORTEDLY LINKED:

Montreal, Ottawa

https://www.thefourthperiod.com/trade-watch-list-2024

 

I have a feeling there is going to be a Berggren - Chychrun trade package coming up. As long as Detroit is not on his 10-team no-trade list that is! I am sure he would welcome a trade to Detroit though!

What are your packages? We'd be giving them needed cap relief too, so that can be considered. BUT, will Ottawa's new GM allow another Yzerman fleecing? Does it work 1 for 1? Does Yzerman throw in a 2nd or 3rd round pick? Another player?

I would prefer Grinning Bear over Chychrun, tbh.

[Dabura 12,232]

3 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Agreed. There's a new article today by The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn predicting the Eastern Conference playoff odds. He's got Detroit at 35%, Toronto at 96%, and Tampa at 87%, and Pittsburgh (!!!!) at 75%. The Penguins are sitting below .500 while we're beating the top teams in the league on a nightly basis, but they're probably gonna make it because...reasons?

3 hours ago, Troy McClure said:

I concure with you both.

We are more idea guys. Men of vision. 

Odds? Points? Leave that to accounting. 

I want to know your thoughts on Seiders swagger. Will it be enough to attract the Mankos this offseason? Is it true swagger if he refuses to wreck shop? Perhaps he is only leaving shops open until playoffs?

Seider is the guy who pushed the stats nerds into lockers in high school. Absolute jock. 10/10. Would draft.

[Dabura 12,232]

1 hour ago, Axl Foley said:

You were one of those nerds, werent you?

No, I was the prom queen.

[Dabura 12,232]

3 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Here's what Seider needs...Noah Hanifin on the 2nd pair. I've made up my mind on this. F*ck Chychrun. Why do we need Hanifin? Because he's basically exactly like Seider. He plays REALLY tough minutes against top competition for 20+ minutes a night and doesn't get caved. If you have a guy like that on each of your top two pairs then both of them get a break and you've always got someone on the ice that can defend.

Walman-Seider

Hanifin-Chiarot

Maatta-Petry

Holl

 

Trade Gostisbehere. Let Seider QB the top powerplay unit and Walman or Petry can QB the 2nd unit.

Chychrun is really good. I wanna hate on him because everyone's always talking him up and it annoys me. But he's legit. Oft-injured. But legit.

But what you're saying about Hanifin is why I've always really liked him and why I think I'd be more excited about getting him than I would Chychrun.

Seider's playing the hardest minutes in the league. It's cool that he can take it, but it's a ridiculous situation. You can hard-match him against the other team's top talent, but the other team's gonna have other good players and we don't really have other good matchup defensemen. That's not a recipe for success. We're playing with fire.

Add Hanifin and Edvinsson and all of a sudden we're loaded with workhorses. (Though, Edvinsson's probably in GR for the rest of the season.) Seider's life gets easier. Chiarot's life gets easier. Everyone's life gets easier. Except our opponents'.

A future top four of Edvinsson-Seider / Hanifin-ASP could be filthy.

Edited February 5, 2024 by Dabura

[kipwinger 8,756]

1 hour ago, Dabura said:

Seider is the guy who pushed the stats nerds into lockers in high school. Absolute jock. 10/10. Would draft.

Wanna get even more frustrated? The playoff projections are based on this dude's individual player rankings (i.e. the more "good" players you have - according to his model - the greater your likelihood of success). Trouble is, his player ranking model so seriously overvalues offense, and undervalues usage and quality of competition, that it rates Shayne Gostisbehere and Jeff Petry higher than Moritz Seider, and Olli Maatta higher than Lucas Raymond. But we're all dummies for not being smart enough to see how right he is. 

[Dabura 12,232]

2 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Wanna get even more frustrated? The playoff projections are based on this dude's individual player rankings (i.e. the more "good" players you have - according to his model - the greater your likelihood of success). Trouble is, his player ranking model so seriously overvalues offense, and undervalues usage and quality of competition, that it rates Shayne Gostisbehere and Jeff Petry higher than Moritz Seider, and Olli Maatta higher than Lucas Raymond. But we're all dummies for not being smart enough to see how right he is. 

Yuuuup.

It's always been a scam. Constructing models to show that the kinds of players they like are Objective Good and that the kinds of players they don't like are Objectively Bad - and getting enough institutional support from their circle jerk crowd that they can just sit in their ivory cubicles (their work got them jobs and platforms) and point to their numbers whenever the rubes dare to question them. And endlessly stacking their models, one arbitrary value system on top of another, until it gets so silly and useless that people see it for the house of cards it is.

Seider takes a sledgehammer to it, as you said. It's hilarious.

[Dabura 12,232]

6 hours ago, mackel said:

I think to land Hanafin you trade:

Berggren, Matta, 2nd, and one middling D prospect Bium, MacIsaac, etc

Maybe the pick is a 1st with a 3rd coming back from Calgary. 

Sadly, I highly doubt that'd get it done.

I honestly don't think Berggren has much value at this point. Maybe to a competitive team that's in cap hell and needs to ruthlessly moneypuck its bottom six. But that's not the Flames.

The thing about Hanifin is there really aren't any questions or concerns about him. He's not injury-prone. He's not a head case. He's not one-dimensional. 6'3. Just turned 27. Plays on their top pairing. Plays big minutes, all situations. 8 goals and 25 points thru 49 games this season.

To put that stat line into perspective: Seider's put up 6 goals and 26 points thru 50 games this season. Now, granted, Seider's usage this season is beyond brutal and that's suppressed his scoring. But the point is Hanifin's roughly equivalent to Seider. So yeah - he won't come cheap.

So I figure the ask - whether we want Hanifin as a rental or there's an extension in place - is Kasper. They're not getting Kasper, but they could probably get a comparable player from another team.

For what it's worth, I read somewhere that he and Larkin are pretty close. I dunno that that helps us land him, but it's something.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

Hannifin makes 4.5M

That's a manageable salary which means about a dozen teams could realistically take a run at him. 

Would anyone here do Rasmussen + 1st? Because it would take at least that. 

[kipwinger 8,756]

3 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Hannifin makes 4.5M

That's a manageable salary which means about a dozen teams could realistically take a run at him. 

Would anyone here do Rasmussen + 1st? Because it would take at least that. 

Nope, but I'd certainly do Veleno and a 1st. I think Ras is too valuable, particularly to a playoff team. Fortunately I don't think that's something that interests Calgary. They're loaded with bottom six two way forwards. I think in order to get it done with us they're going to be looking at futures and defense prospects.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Nope, but I'd certainly do Veleno and a 1st. I think Ras is too valuable, particularly to a playoff team. Fortunately I don't think that's something that interests Calgary. They're loaded with bottom six two way forwards. I think in order to get it done with us they're going to be looking at futures and defense prospects.

Yeah I figured. 

I guess, to get a guy like Hannifin the trade's gotta sting a little or at least make you a bit uncomfortable for it to be fair. Sort of thing. 

[kipwinger 8,756]

11 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Yeah I figured. 

I guess, to get a guy like Hannifin the trade's gotta sting a little or at least make you a bit uncomfortable for it to be fair. Sort of thing. 

Yep, agreed. Your valuation is correct, I'd just cross my fingers that they'd want an overpaying in futures and not roster players.

[Troy McClure 347]

3 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Hannifin makes 4.5M

I think this is the main reason Hanafin won't happen for us.

We really cannot afford to give Hanafin the extension he needs, and we've not reached a point yet where this level of rental is acceptable.

Unless we are willing to send Calgary immediate salary obligations, ala Ras, Veleno, Maata, etc. And I do think you would have to send all 3 or at least 2/3 to make an extension feasible.

Maata + Veleno + Ras for Hanafin, with whatever outlying massage picks from both teams to make it happen.

Doesn't seem prudent for us to upgrade the defense with an older Dman at the cost of younger forwards right now.

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 139]

10 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Hannifin makes 4.5M

That's a manageable salary which means about a dozen teams could realistically take a run at him. 

Would anyone here do Rasmussen + 1st? Because it would take at least that. 

In a second.

10 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Nope, but I'd certainly do Veleno and a 1st. I think Ras is too valuable, particularly to a playoff team. Fortunately I don't think that's something that interests Calgary. They're loaded with bottom six two way forwards. I think in order to get it done with us they're going to be looking at futures and defense prospects.

Wtf? If Calgarys ask is Rasmussen + 1st you do that all day every day. Of course theyd want more then that so it doesnt really matter.

Ras is a bottom 6 1/2 Pt/G F. Hanifin is a top 2 1/2 Pt/G D. Id prefer the 1st to slide to 2025 but either way it should be in the 20 range.

7 hours ago, Troy McClure said:

I think this is the main reason Hanafin won't happen for us.

We really cannot afford to give Hanafin the extension he needs, and we've not reached a point yet where this level of rental is acceptable.

Unless we are willing to send Calgary immediate salary obligations, ala Ras, Veleno, Maata, etc. And I do think you would have to send all 3 or at least 2/3 to make an extension feasible.

Maata + Veleno + Ras for Hanafin, with whatever outlying massage picks from both teams to make it happen.

Doesn't seem prudent for us to upgrade the defense with an older Dman at the cost of younger forwards right now.

If the older -by 2 years D is the better player you do it. No need to overthink it.

Hanifin, Seider, Edvinsson, ASP, Walman and whoever would be filthy.

Id also make the same trade for Chychrun.

[kipwinger 8,756]

3 hours ago, stephen-gregory-yzerman said:

In a second.

Wtf? If Calgarys ask is Rasmussen + 1st you do that all day every day. Of course theyd want more then that so it doesnt really matter.

Ras is a bottom 6 1/2 Pt/G F. Hanifin is a top 2 1/2 Pt/G D. Id prefer the 1st to slide to 2025 but either way it should be in the 20 range.

If the older -by 2 years D is the better player you do it. No need to overthink it.

Hanifin, Seider, Edvinsson, ASP, Walman and whoever would be filthy.

Id also make the same trade for Chychrun.

Well I suspect you and I might fundamentally disagree on a couple of things. First, the value of defensive play overall, as well as the value of Michael Rasmussen. For the most part I don't really give a crap how many points a guy scores (obviously there are limits to this). Why? Because it's not really an accurate way to determine everything a player is doing to contribute to winning games. Shayne Gostisbehere scores more than Jake Walman but one of those guys is doing a lot more than the other to help the team. So in general I look at what roles a guy plays on the team, and whether he's succeeding in those roles, before I look at points. Which brings me to Ras. Prior to about a month ago we had basically one line that played consistently good hockey (Larkin's line). Aside from that we were getting a lot of offense from our defense, a lot of powerplay goals, and a lot of great individual efforts (Sprong). But we didn't really have an even strength line (outside of Larkin's) that could win shifts against good players. The Ras-Copp-Fischer line is exactly that. Their shot share is absolutely ridiculous. They're really, really, valuable. And Ras has been driving the bus on that. Look at all the goals Copp's been scoring lately and you'll find that Ras made the play on almost all of them. He's a beast defensively, on the forecheck, PK, faceoffs AND ON TOP OF THAT he scores .5 ppg. Ras is a modern day Kris Draper in terms of his value to the team. There were a ton of players better than Draper, but very few of them were more valuable in terms of winning games.

Besides, you guys are dramatically overstating the return for Hanifin. Look at what Chychrun got last year and Hanifin will get a little less because he's older and doesn't have term on his contract. I really think you're looking at a 1st, 2nd/Good Prospect, cap dump. The hard part with Hanifin is finding the cap space to extend him.

 

[Troy McClure 347]

3 hours ago, stephen-gregory-yzerman said:

In a second.

Wtf? If Calgarys ask is Rasmussen + 1st you do that all day every day. Of course theyd want more then that so it doesnt really matter.

Ras is a bottom 6 1/2 Pt/G F. Hanifin is a top 2 1/2 Pt/G D. Id prefer the 1st to slide to 2025 but either way it should be in the 20 range.

If the older -by 2 years D is the better player you do it. No need to overthink it.

Hanifin, Seider, Edvinsson, ASP, Walman and whoever would be filthy.

Id also make the same trade for Chychrun.

I hear ya and dont disagree

It's just more of a hockey trade than a deadline trade. At the TDL I'd ideally like to trade futures instead of actively contributing roster players.

It's also two bottom 6 centers. Wouldnt kill our depth by any means, but in injury scenarios it might not feel good either. But i guess maybe Hanafin makes up for that.

[Troy McClure 347]

10 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Well I suspect you and I might fundamentally disagree on a couple of things. First, the value of defensive play overall, as well as the value of Michael Rasmussen. For the most part I don't really give a crap how many points a guy scores (obviously there are limits to this). Why? Because it's not really an accurate way to determine everything a player is doing to contribute to winning games. Shayne Gostisbehere scores more than Jake Walman but one of those guys is doing a lot more than the other to help the team. So in general I look at what roles a guy plays on the team, and whether he's succeeding in those roles, before I look at points. Which brings me to Ras. Prior to about a month ago we had basically one line that played consistently good hockey (Larkin's line). Aside from that we were getting a lot of offense from our defense, a lot of powerplay goals, and a lot of great individual efforts (Sprong). But we didn't really have an even strength line (outside of Larkin's) that could win shifts against good players. The Ras-Copp-Fischer line is exactly that. Their shot share is absolutely ridiculous. They're really, really, valuable. And Ras has been driving the bus on that. Look at all the goals Copp's been scoring lately and you'll find that Ras made the play on almost all of them. He's a beast defensively, on the forecheck, PK, faceoffs AND ON TOP OF THAT he scores .5 ppg. Ras is a modern day Kris Draper in terms of his value to the team. There were a ton of players better than Draper, but very few of them were more valuable in terms of winning games.

Besides, you guys are dramatically overstating the return for Hanifin. Look at what Chychrun got last year and Hanifin will get a little less because he's older and doesn't have term on his contract. I really think you're looking at a 1st, 2nd/Good Prospect, cap dump. The hard part with Hanifin is finding the cap space to extend him.

 

I guess we could always wait and look to make a trade at the draft. Or qualify Ras and Veleno and look for summer moves. Buyout Petry. Trade Fabbri.

I think a Maata + Buium + 1st package makes sense. 

 

[kipwinger 8,756]

2 minutes ago, Troy McClure said:

I guess we could always wait and look to make a trade at the draft. Or qualify Ras and Veleno and look for summer moves. Buyout Petry. Trade Fabbri.

I think a Maata + Buium + 1st package makes sense. 

 

Maatta and Fabbri both seems primed for trades because they're having good seasons, make a lot of money, and they don't play big roles on the team. Add in that Perron and Gost are both likely gone and the cap going up and you're starting to have some real money to work with. I'd imagine Kane is gone as well. He's been good, and it's been super fun to watch him play, but we're winning games against good team without him so that 2million might be better spent elsewhere.

The point is, we can clear a substantial amount of money this offseason and even more in the years to come. The big thing will be getting Raymond and Ras on bridge deals and hopefully Seider doesn't absolutely hold SY over the coals (which he'd certainly be entitled to do).

[Troy McClure 347]

50 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Maatta and Fabbri both seems primed for trades because they're having good seasons, make a lot of money, and they don't play big roles on the team. Add in that Perron and Gost are both likely gone and the cap going up and you're starting to have some real money to work with. I'd imagine Kane is gone as well. He's been good, and it's been super fun to watch him play, but we're winning games against good team without him so that 2million might be better spent elsewhere.

The point is, we can clear a substantial amount of money this offseason and even more in the years to come. The big thing will be getting Raymond and Ras on bridge deals and hopefully Seider doesn't absolutely hold SY over the coals (which he'd certainly be entitled to do).

Ray, Ras, and Mos extensions are going to completely fugg us out of money this summer. If we add Hanafin or have any desire to add significant pieces in UFA, trades have to happen. 

This would be sick next year:

DCat - Larkin - Kane

Compher - Stamkos - Raymond

Ras - Copp - Fischer

Kostin - Veleno - Berggren

Walman - Seider

Hanafin - Chiarot

Edvinsson - Holl

Husso

Lyon

 

[kipwinger 8,756]

42 minutes ago, Troy McClure said:

Ray, Ras, and Mos extensions are going to completely fugg us out of money this summer. If we add Hanafin or have any desire to add significant pieces in UFA, trades have to happen. 

This would be sick next year:

DCat - Larkin - Kane

Compher - Stamkos - Raymond

Ras - Copp - Fischer

Kostin - Veleno - Berggren

Walman - Seider

Hanafin - Chiarot

Edvinsson - Holl

Husso

Lyon

 

 

Hate to be the one to throw cold water on this BUT...Stamkos hasn't played center consistently in years and his game's been really awful (when he's not scoring) for quite a while now. Like, really bad. There's a reason Tampa isn't even bothering to negotiate with him. At the very least you'd need to switch him with Compher, but personally I wouldn't even touch that guy.

 

Here's mine (if we're keeping Kane):

DCAT-Larkin-Raymond

Kane-Compher-Sprong

Ras-Copp-Fischer

Kostin-Veleno-Vatrano

Edited February 6, 2024 by kipwinger

[Troy McClure 347]

53 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

 

Hate to be the one to throw cold water on this BUT...Stamkos hasn't played center consistently in years and his game's been really awful (when he's not scoring) for quite a while now. Like, really bad. There's a reason Tampa isn't even bothering to negotiate with him. At the very least you'd need to switch him with Compher, but personally I wouldn't even touch that guy.

 

Here's mine (if we're keeping Kane):

DCAT-Larkin-Raymond

Kane-Compher-Sprong

Ras-Copp-Fischer

Kostin-Veleno-Vatrano

Id be fine with Kuznetsov instead of Stamkos then

[kipwinger 8,756]

2 minutes ago, Troy McClure said:

Id be fine with Kuznetsov instead of Stamkos then

Coke bros 4 lyfe!!!!!!

We bringing Vrana back too?

[Troy McClure 347]

9 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Coke bros 4 lyfe!!!!!!

We bringing Vrana back too?

A fat ethiopian woman pinched my bag from me last weekend and ive been pretty much devasted for the last few days.

Ski life is a tough life and i have nothing but profound respect for jakub and evgeny

[kipwinger 8,756]

4 minutes ago, Troy McClure said:

A fat ethiopian woman pinched my bag from me last weekend and ive been pretty much devasted for the last few days.

Ski life is a tough life and i have nothing but profound respect for jakub and evgeny

I presume you live a standard white, upper middle class, existence. Should be fairly easy to find more coke.

Edited February 6, 2024 by kipwinger

[Troy McClure 347]

5 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I presume you live a standard white, upper middle class, existence. Should be fairly easy to find more coke.

I say it everyday, all the time, Ethiopia is not sending us their best. They come over here, they terk ur cerkcain. And they send it all back to mogadishu.