Typically Id agree with your assessment provided said player was #1D and was likely to be #1D for contract term. There's a good chance Hronek becomes our #3D THIS YEAR, however. And almost certain chance he's anchoring the 2nd pairing by next season.
2021:
Hronek-Leddy
Seider-Staal
Lindstrom-Oesterle
2022:
Seider-Leddy
Hronek-Edvinsson
Lindstrom-Johansson
2023 -:
Seider-Edvinsson
Hronek-Johannson
Lindstrom-McIsaac
I would be surprised if Hronek gets more than 5 per on a long term deal. 6 per on a short term deal wouldnt surprise me. I think he'd be smart to sign through ufa status and play his ass off. By age 26, he could be making a strong case for 8-9 mil on the open market. If Im Yzerman, Im doing my best to have the best #3 dman in the league making #3 dman money.