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How much is too much?


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#1 Pomorie

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 07:32 AM

With money flying around at all the free agents, the question needs to be asked. How much is too much.

The terms for money and years seems to all be trending in same direction.

Every year we are hopeful to get one or two guys that go to free agency. However, what they get paid is always surprising everyone.

My best guess is as follows and please feel free to post yours as well since mine may be off.

Fourth line forward - 1.5 million +
Third line forward - 3.5 +
Second line forward - 5 +
First line forward - 6.5 +

I only tried forwards.

If that is accurate to you, how do we grade these players?

Me personally I don't believe any player even your best should go past 10% of your cap in order to stay competitive unless you have other players getting paid below their estimated value.

Edited by Pomorie, 03 July 2013 - 07:32 AM.


#2 frankgrimes

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 07:47 AM

With money flying around at all the free agents, the question needs to be asked. How much is too much.

The terms for money and years seems to all be trending in same direction.

Every year we are hopeful to get one or two guys that go to free agency. However, what they get paid is always surprising everyone.

My best guess is as follows and please feel free to post yours as well since mine may be off.

Fourth line forward - 1.5 million +
Third line forward - 3.5 +
Second line forward - 5 +
First line forward - 6.5 +

I only tried forwards.

If that is accurate to you, how do we grade these players?

Me personally I don't believe any player even your best should go past 10% of your cap in order to stay competitive unless you have other players getting paid below their estimated value.

 

Looking at this from a players point of view it is very easy to answer:

 

Supply + demand

 

UFA classes are thanks to the damn cap short and the few remaining top UFAs want a big-day. GMs aren't allowed to use creative contracts anymore, because the league is more a dictationship than anything else so what are they expected to do?

 

Answer is easy, their annual caphits have to rise and thats why guys like Bozak, Clarkson...can command such high salarie are they worth it? Debatable but if teams want them, thats the price they have to pay.

 

 


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#3 unsaddleddonald

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 08:30 AM

$4million per for Stephen Weiss is too much.



#4 Johnz96

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 08:37 AM

With money flying around at all the free agents, the question needs to be asked. How much is too much.

The terms for money and years seems to all be trending in same direction.

Every year we are hopeful to get one or two guys that go to free agency. However, what they get paid is always surprising everyone.

My best guess is as follows and please feel free to post yours as well since mine may be off.

Fourth line forward - 1.5 million +
Third line forward - 3.5 +
Second line forward - 5 +
First line forward - 6.5 +

I only tried forwards.

If that is accurate to you, how do we grade these players?

Me personally I don't believe any player even your best should go past 10% of your cap in order to stay competitive unless you have other players getting paid below their estimated value.

That would leave about $15m(without the +s) for 6 d-men and 2 goalies so it's gotta be a little lower on average



#5 amato

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 08:51 AM

That would leave about $15m(without the +s) for 6 d-men and 2 goalies so it's gotta be a little lower on average


I thought about mentioning that too. But, correct me if I'm wrong, I think the OP was referring to UFAs signing at those positions rather than every roster player..?

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#6 13dangledangle

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 09:10 AM

My answer is based on the single question "How much is too much?"

 

                      1.  Flip's wanted paycheque is  too much

 

                      2.  Sammy's never ending injury protecting him from a buyout is too much

 

                      3.  Burning Holland at the stakes for not signing Lecavalier is too much


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#7 The Axe

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 09:12 AM

My answer is based on the single question "How much is too much?"
 
                      1.  Flip's wanted paycheque is  too much
 
                      2.  Sammy's never ending injury protecting him from a buyout is too much
 
                      3.  Burning Holland at the stakes for not signing Lecavalier is too much


Agreed on all 3.

But Jesus. Sammy is just a cancer. Get rid of him already.

#8 nuts2u

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 09:30 AM

I can't believe they're talking 3M for Cleary. Actually I can't believe they're even talking to him at any price.



#9 dirtydangles

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 09:30 AM

Getting rid of Sammy will cure Helm's back - book it  :bye:


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#10 T.Low

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 10:04 AM

UFA's will be inherently over priced because demand is high and supply is low.  They will ruin the salary structure of your team, and quite possibly the attitude of the room.

 

We all know that Holland and Illitch understood after the '05 CBA that prices for UFA's would be waaaay hyper inflated and therefore went to a philosophy of building a team through the draft.

 

As you see, Wings fans are having a difficult time living on a budget when we never had to before.  We can't handle not buying every Lecavalier and Horton that we see become available, like the good ole days of  buying up a Lucky Luc and having no room for him except on the 4rth line.

 

That is one reason winning the Calder Cup was so significant.


Edited by T.Low, 03 July 2013 - 10:12 AM.


#11 Nev

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 10:17 AM

Its not just the price, its the term that is being asked for by these guys.  Its one thing offering a guy like Clarkson a 3 year $18M contract, if he doesn't live up to it, you're not stuck with it for very long.  But a 7 year $42M contract?  If he reverts back to being a 15 goal scorer, you're stuck with him till 2020!.  You can't trade him, cos no-one wants his contract, and you can't bury him in the minors like before.

 

As I've been saying for a while, there's always a desperate GM ready to make a desperate signing and "over-pay."  I'm sure someone out there has already given Flip's agent the nod that he'll give him a ginagerous contract, hence his desire to hit FA.

 

Holmgren is desperate to keep his job.  If Vinny doesn't work out, and Philly are stuck with him, what does Holmgren care?  He won't be there, its someone else's problem.


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#12 Richdg

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 10:23 AM

UFA's will be inherently over priced because demand is high and supply is low.  They will ruin the salary structure of your team, and quite possibly the attitude of the room.

 

We all know that Holland and Illitch understood after the '05 CBA that prices for UFA's would be waaaay hyper inflated and therefore went to a philosophy of building a team through the draft.

 

As you see, Wings fans are having a difficult time living on a budget when we never had to before.  We can't handle not buying every Lecavalier and Horton that we see become available, like the good ole days of  buying up a Lucky Luc and having no room for him except on the 4rth line.

 

That is one reason winning the Calder Cup was so significant.

Sorry but it means nothing. Winning the championship in the minors has zero connection with winning at the NHL level. Add in that the main reason the griffins won was, we loaded up their roster with guys that played all or most of the year with the RW's. The majority of the griffins talent was already up: Smith, Nyquist, lashoff, and Andersson.



#13 Johnz96

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 10:29 AM

Sorry but it means nothing. Winning the championship in the minors has zero connection with winning at the NHL level. Add in that the main reason the griffins won was, we loaded up their roster with guys that played all or most of the year with the RW's. The majority of the griffins talent was already up: Smith, Nyquist, lashoff, and Andersson.

Winning the championship in the minors was an excellent experience for the Wings' prospects. It also shows that they are better than other teams prospects. The Griffs were also one of the youngest teams in the AHL.
Every other team also had players from their NHL teams, the Crunch were fortunate enough to have them for the whole Calder Cup playoffs because the Lightning didn't make to the Stanley Cup playoffs.



#14 puckbags

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 10:35 AM

The rumored 3 years at 3 per for Dan Cleary is tooooooooooo much !!!

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#15 derblaueClaus

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 11:27 AM

The question for me is not how much is to much but how much for what length is to much. Better pay a decent player one or two Million more for a foreseeable period of time than stuck with this player and his cap hit for years. Some GMs are just insane if they sign players with big cap hits till their late 30s/ early 40s. See Luongo, Richards, Brzy and many others.

 

The question how much is about how it fits in your system. If you're the Flyers and you have holes in you D and a shakey Backup as starter than I would see 4.5 Mil for a declining LeCavalier as too much. If you are the Red Wings on the other hand and you are looking for a decent second line center then this sounds like a good deal. (With the exeption of the length, see my point above)

The average numbers from the threadstarter look reasonable but they don't answer the question if, for example, Alexander Ovechkins 9 Mil. are to much or Abbys 1.4 Mil are a good deal.  


Edited by derblaueClaus, 03 July 2013 - 11:28 AM.

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#16 skyphoenix

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 11:31 AM

A lot of people would say Quincey's $3.75mil a season is a gross overpayment but when we re-signed him there really wasn't much for Defensemen on the market and we were hurting in that area. Like someone said earlier, supply and demand plays into it a lot. Next year, players might not be getting as much money because the market is flooded with talent.


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#17 Euro_Twins

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 11:41 AM

Sorry but it means nothing. Winning the championship in the minors has zero connection with winning at the NHL level. Add in that the main reason the griffins won was, we loaded up their roster with guys that played all or most of the year with the RW's. The majority of the griffins talent was already up: Smith, Nyquist, lashoff, and Andersson.

 

So what you are saying is that the griffins got to the championship basically with no help from the aforementioned players, and that when they came back they did indeed help the griffins win but also they mostly did it without those guys. That being said winning the calder cup is significant, it shows that despite not getting any high picks over the last 20 years our farm team is still excellent and better than any other ahl farm team. That leaves us in a really good spot to replace players as others retire



#18 Pomorie

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 11:42 AM

I thought about mentioning that too. But, correct me if I'm wrong, I think the OP was referring to UFAs signing at those positions rather than every roster player..?


That's what I meant. The free agents are priced too high. I didn't try pricing out an entire team but rather what the asking and most likely going rate for current free agent forwards will be.

Thinking about it from that standpoint makes me realize why Holland hasn't been able to get top free agents. The supply and demand for 2nd and 3rd tier players being the only free agents available is just too high. I was upset about Lecavelier because 4.5 million is good but 5 years is too long. Imagine someone like Tatar or Nyquist becoming great players and we can not pay them because of Lecavelier.

With Holland's loyalty I think that is a position that he would not want to be in.

It's hard to figure out what he is going to do but I personally can't fault him if he doesn't do much. I'm holding out hope for a big trade or something to go down.

#19 AtomicPunk

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 12:38 PM

Didn't we just have a lockout last year because the player salaries were out of control? My God. They will never learn.


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#20 T.Low

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 12:51 PM

"Competitive monopoly" is a rather unique situation that appears in sports more so than other areas of the marketplace. I haven't seen anyone post about it yet, but it's really a big reason on why UFA prices can be so ridiculous.

For example; While there may be five 2C's that are capable of 25 goals 35 assists per year, there is only one Vinny Lecavalier.

If you want a Vinny Lecavalier on your team, the local Sporting goods store does not have five Vinny Lecavaliers on the shelf. There is only one in all of the world.

You could buy a Weiss or a Filp instead, but its not the same as a Vinny. Vinny Lecavalier has a monopoly on Vinny Lecavalier's.  If you want one, you are going to have to bid against everyone else that wants one too.

When you have a monopoly on something,you are a price maker, not a price taker.

The salary cap was meant to level the playing field in regards to acquisition powers. It has proven to be kryptonite to Illitches checkbook and has taken the Mickey out of Hollands off-season. He has chosen not to overpay during UFA season. And I can't blame him. There is only so much pie to slice up for your team.

Edited by T.Low, 03 July 2013 - 01:07 PM.






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