Conflict in the Crease

[Buppy 1,720]

2 hours ago, Echolalia said:

Because a Mrazek/Coreau combo would have made this season, and quite possibly  subsequent seasons brutally unwatchable which defeats the entire purpose of NHL hockey games, although I know you mentioned that's more or less the type of hockey you would prefer to see.  And again your table is still dropping data, and when measuring for variance it's altogether inferior to sd.  On a side note, it's also misleading to say that the data below .85 or whatever arbitrary point doesn't matter.  Your claim that a save percentage less than .85 can be written off as a loss is exaggerating.  Yeah the chances go down as your percentage drops, but just looking at Mrazek's sub .850 games this year, 29% of them were wins.  Hell someone could get pulled after allowing two goals on three shots for a save percentage of .333 and it's not remotely farfetched that the team could overcome a two-goal deficit and win the game.  It's not data worth writing off, and considering the past few seasons where one single win was the difference between playoffs and not, I wouldn't be content with tossing that data away and labeling it the same.  And when it comes to simply measuring variation from the mean to calculate consistency as was my original purpose, your method is overall subpar.

Lol. I disagree with you so I must like to watch the team lose. Please keep the veiled insults to yourself. 

Sure, if the only goal was to measure variance, SD would be great. But you're trying to evaluate a goalie. So what exactly does the variance tell you in that regard?

It's not writing anything off. Maybe I should have left the "probably a loss" part out or said if the team wins it isn't because of that goalie. Point is there isn't a meaningful difference in that range. And the point about getting pulled early is all the more reason to look beyond simple variance. One fluke game can have a significant impact on even a very large sample. Or the same impact could come from several games. You have to look deeper to understand.

Data from 2014-15 through this year:

Shots Against	<20	20-26	27-35	36-40	>40
% of Games	4.9%	26.7%	49.3%	12.9%	6.2%
Goals Against	1	2	3	4	5+
Point%	93.7%	74.0%	46.6%	24.6%	9.1%

~89% of games see between 20-40 shots allowed, and almost half are 27-35. So again, a goalie with a 95% save% will almost always be allowing 1 or fewer goals. There's no point in differentiating anything because the practical result is almost always the same. Similarly, a save % below 85% is almost always (~95%) going to be 4+ goals in a full game. ~73% of the time even it would be 5+ goals. Or it means getting pulled early. Either way, it's not something you want from your goalie. Again there's not much point in the difference. But here's the full list anyway:

100.00%	*13.6%(9.6)	10.4%
97.00%	4.8%	8.2%
96.00%	7.2%	13.4%
95.00%	6.4%	6.5%
94.00%	2.4%	6.1%
93.00%	8.0%	6.9%
92.00%	10.4%	5.2%
91.00%	5.6%	5.2%
90.00%	8.8%	6.1%
89.00%	5.6%	3.5%
88.00%	2.4%	6.1%
87.00%	3.2%	4.8%
86.00%	1.6%	2.6%
85.00%	3.2%	2.2%
84.00%	4.0%	3.0%
83.00%	0.8%	1.3%
82.00%	0.8%	2.2%
81.00%	3.2%	0.4%
80.00%	0.8%	2.2%
70.00%	3.2%	3.5%
Below	4.0%	0.4%

 

*the number in parentheses is complete game shutouts

 

 

25 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

According to KFH they're not rebuilding

Semantics. 

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

Seems like Petr's attitude isnt the best this year. Maybe a little sense of entitlement creeped into him.

Quote

Perhaps Mrazek's attitude could be better. Following Howard's injury Dec. 20 in Tampa Bay, Jared Coreau was recalled from Grand Rapids and coach Jeff Blashill started him in Florida on Dec. 23.

Mrazek was upset. The back-up goalie typically stays on the ice after practice, getting extra work and giving injured players someone to shoot on. Mrazek left the ice after practice at BB&T Center and refused to return after being confronted by one of his teammates

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2017/01/work_ethic_attitude_keys_to_ge.html#incart_river_index

[wings_fanatic 677]

Because blashill from day 1 did not treat mrazek in the proper way. As a goalie you think he would know how to handle goalies. But he doesnt. I cannot wait for blashill to go.

[kliq 3,755]

52 minutes ago, wings_fanatic said:

Because blashill from day 1 did not treat mrazek in the proper way. As a goalie you think he would know how to handle goalies. But he doesnt. I cannot wait for blashill to go.

No need to get personal, comments like that just make you sound bad.

I have given Blashill a hard time for a lot for alot of things, but his treatment of Mrazek is simply not something he has done wrong. I am a Mrazek fan, and I want to see Mrazek thrive, but when you play like s***, you are going to get benched. It sounds to me like some fans want Blashill to coddle him, simply keep playing him until he inevitably gets better (which may or may not happen). Young players need to be held accountable, if they are not that is how how end up with the Kovelev's and Radulov's of the world.

Edited January 3, 2017 by kliq

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

36 minutes ago, wings_fanatic said:

Because blashill from day 1 did not treat mrazek in the proper way. As a goalie you think he would know how to handle goalies. But he doesnt. I cannot wait for blashill to go.

How did he not treat him right? He started Mrazek in 9 of the first 12 games. His game then went to s*** and he has yet to play well enough to take the spot back.

[chaps80 1,591]

On December 31, 2016 at 1:12 AM, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

The islanders just waived Jaroslav Halak with 2 years and 4.5 aav on the books. Tell me again Howard-haters how you're going to trade Howie? Its amazing how many times i ask this with no response. Mrazek is the odd man out.

If it gets to the point where Howard has to go (which may happen this coming offseason with Coreau no longer waiver exempt next season) and the Wings can't find a team interested in making a trade, then the only option is waivers or buyout.  Yes, they'll need need retain most of his salary for two seasons, but the team is capped now and in the league basement. Not like freeing up that money matters, especially with pending UFAs. Despite his performance so far this season, I really can't see him not being the one of the three to go. Despite Mrazek's issues so far this season, which I think will work themselves out, and he and Coreau still developing, there's no real reason to keep Howard over two younger goalies with the current situation the franchise is in. He's gonna be 32, has reached his ceiling, is injured at least once a season, and his play is erratic for an 8 year veteran. And yes, I KNOW HIS STATS in 15 starts this season, but in the grand scheme of things that's a drop in the bucket.

Halak was waived mostly because the Isles are going with youth. He cleared, as expected.

[chaps80 1,591]

1 hour ago, GoalieManPat said:

How did he not treat him right? He started Mrazek in 9 of the first 12 games. His game then went to s*** and he has yet to play well enough to take the spot back.

But he did play well enough while Howard was injured the first time. Once Howard was back, one loss and he's benched even though Howard lost his next three games until he was injured again. If you want to look at it as Mrazek was by then the backup and Howard was simply given his job back, cool. But saying he didn't earn it back, wrong.

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

Just now, chaps80 said:

But he did play well enough while Howard was injured the first time. Once Howard was back, one loss and he's benched even though Howard lost his next three games until he was injured again. If you want to look at it as Mrazek was by then the backup and Howard was simply given his job back, cool. But saying he didn't earn it back, wrong.

He didnt fully earn the spot back during Howards first injury. His play did pick up a little bit in that time but his GAA was still above 3.5 in those games and he benefited from the Wings scoring more in that stretch than they had all season outside of the 2nd week.

15 minutes ago, chaps80 said:

If it gets to the point where Howard has to go (which may happen this coming offseason with Coreau no longer waiver exempt next season) and the Wings can't find a team interested in making a trade, then the only option is waivers or buyout.  Yes, they'll need need retain most of his salary for two seasons, but the team is capped now and in the league basement. Not like freeing up that money matters, especially with pending UFAs. Despite his performance so far this season, I really can't see him not being the one of the three to go. Despite Mrazek's issues so far this season, which I think will work themselves out, and he and Coreau still developing, there's no real reason to keep Howard over two younger goalies with the current situation the franchise is in. He's gonna be 32, has reached his ceiling, is injured at least once a season, and his play is erratic for an 8 year veteran. And yes, I KNOW HIS STATS in 15 starts this season, but in the grand scheme of things that's a drop in the bucket.

 

The more the season goes on I dont see any way the Wings would waiver him. The only way Howard is coming off the roster is if he is traded or LV takes him. Like you said at this point his contract doesnt matter. The Wings are not going to be contenders until his contract is over anyways so the urgency isnt there as there once was. Unless Coreau really shines the 2nd half I cant keep them keeping him over a veteran Howard especially if Mrazek cant break out of his slump.

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

Halak has been pretty bad this season. He's 6-8-5 with GAA 3.23. That's why he was waived. I don't think his situation has much bearing on Howard's situation. Howard's always been a long shot to get traded due to his contract. I think most of the speculation for him going is due to the expansion draft. I think it would be fine if he were taken, but if he's not picked I really can't see us waiving or buying him out to keep Coreau - Howard's a much better goalie and I can't foresee us needing the cap space so badly that we would handicap ourselves like that. 

[kliq 3,755]

I dont think Howard's contract this offseason is as bad as some people thing. At that point its essentially 2 years 10mil, not exactly crazy money. If there is a team out there that thinks all they need is a goalie, I believe trade could be made.

Buying him out would just be stupid. If we do that we then face a cap-hit from him for 4 years rather then 2.

[chaps80 1,591]

On January 3, 2017 at 0:32 AM, PavelValerievichDatsyuk said:

Halak has been pretty bad this season. He's 6-8-5 with GAA 3.23. That's why he was waived. I don't think his situation has much bearing on Howard's situation. Howard's always been a long shot to get traded due to his contract. I think most of the speculation for him going is due to the expansion draft. I think it would be fine if he were taken, but if he's not picked I really can't see us waiving or buying him out to keep Coreau - Howard's a much better goalie and I can't foresee us needing the cap space so badly that we would handicap ourselves like that. 

Halak was playing pretty bad, and yes, it was part of the reason, but it was also to go forward with Greiss and Berube. He was on the outs for awhile now.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

But he did play well enough while Howard was injured the first time. Once Howard was back, one loss and he's benched even though Howard lost his next three games until he was injured again. If you want to look at it as Mrazek was by then the backup and Howard was simply given his job back, cool. But saying he didn't earn it back, wrong.

He's consistently had a gaa over 3 all year. Are they supposed to ignore his play and give him 3/4 of the starts all season just because they named him #1 before preseason even started?

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[chaps80 1,591]

On January 3, 2017 at 1:58 AM, kliq said:

I dont think Howard's contract this offseason is as bad as some people thing. At that point its essentially 2 years 10mil, not exactly crazy money. If there is a team out there that thinks all they need is a goalie, I believe trade could be made.

Buying him out would just be stupid. If we do that we then face a cap-hit from him for 4 years rather then 2.

I don't think Howard is tradeable. Even though he's been playing well overall, which no one expected, he's already been injured twice. His solid season means nothing if he can't play. Injuries aren't new for him either. That, coupled with his history of bipolar play, which hits the lows at bad times (like playoffs), I see Holland pretty much back where he was in the summer with him. Only now he's got two younger goalies to keep instead of one, and Howard has 2.5 seasons left instead of 3.

I agree buying him out would be stupid, but Vegas won't take him. Might have to waive him. If he clears, pay his contract off as it sits. If he doesn't, good.

[chaps80 1,591]

1 hour ago, DickieDunn said:

 

He's consistently had a gaa over 3 all year. Are they supposed to ignore his play and give him 3/4 of the starts all season just because they named him #1 before preseason even started?

Sent from my LGLS676 using Tapatalk
 

 

No, but if there was a period of time where he could have earned it back, that was it. His GAA wasn't over 3 in that time and he got 8 out of 10 points. Just pointing out that his entire season hasn't been as horrible as some of you guys see it as. If you'd rather keep an inconsistent veteran who's never achieved a single thing with a groin to rival Gustavsson's around based on 15 games this season, cool. I'd rather cut ties with the past and go wit youth, regardless of the problems the younger guys are having right now. Let them play, ship Howard out. Oh wait, they can't because he's still untradeable.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

1 hour ago, chaps80 said:

No, but if there was a period of time where he could have earned it back, that was it. His GAA wasn't over 3 in that time and he got 8 out of 10 points. Just pointing out that his entire season hasn't been as horrible as some of you guys see it as. If you'd rather keep an inconsistent veteran who's never achieved a single thing with a groin to rival Gustavsson's around based on 15 games this season, cool. I'd rather cut ties with the past and go wit youth, regardless of the problems the younger guys are having right now. Let them play, ship Howard out. Oh wait, they can't because he's still untradeable.

Hes untradeable and the better goalie. Get used to watching Howard. 

Edited January 6, 2017 by ChristopherReevesLegs

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

3 hours ago, chaps80 said:

Halak was playing pretty bad, and yes, it was part of the reason, but it was also to go forward with Greiss and Berube. He was on the outs for awhile now.

But in the context of Howard being tradable or not, his poor play is the most relevant. Halak's situation was brought up in this context assumably to say: "a goalie of Halak's caliber, and with a lighter contract, can't be traded and had to be waived, so Howard definitely is unmovable." But with him playing so badly it negates the point. If they wanted to go with youth and Halak was playing like Howard was, they might very well have been able to move him.

And for the record, I wasn't saying we should trade Howard, just that Halak shouldn't be used as a yardstick to measure the likelihood of that.

Anyway, Howard's injury would stop any trade inquiries until he's back, in my opinion.

[kliq 3,755]

2 hours ago, chaps80 said:

I don't think Howard is tradeable. Even though he's been playing well overall, which no one expected, he's already been injured twice. His solid season means nothing if he can't play. Injuries aren't new for him either. That, coupled with his history of bipolar play, which hits the lows at bad times (like playoffs), I see Holland pretty much back where he was in the summer with him. Only now he's got two younger goalies to keep instead of one, and Howard has 2.5 seasons left instead of 3.

I agree buying him out would be stupid, but Vegas won't take him. Might have to waive him. If he clears, pay his contract off as it sits. If he doesn't, good.

All it takes is 1 NHL team to be interested. After David Clarkson was traded my eyes were opened up to the idea that anyone can be traded.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

He hasn't had a stretch of more than 3 or 4 games in almost a full year where he's been good. That's not Trashill's fault. That's on him.

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[Wing Across The Pond 196]

On 03/01/2017 at 6:58 AM, kliq said:

I dont think Howard's contract this offseason is as bad as some people thing. At that point its essentially 2 years 10mil, not exactly crazy money. If there is a team out there that thinks all they need is a goalie, I believe trade could be made.

Buying him out would just be stupid. If we do that we then face a cap-hit from him for 4 years rather then 2.

Not to mention we already have a cap hit until 2020-21 for Weiss. We'll be looking at about 1.5m-2m to buyout Howard depending on year, coupled with around 1.5, for Weiss means you eat 3m roughly for 3 years with neither player.

I agree that the lower term in the off-season may temp a team who needs a short term goalie. 2 years at 10m sounds much better than 3 years at 15m.

7 hours ago, chaps80 said:

I agree buying him out would be stupid, but Vegas won't take him. Might have to waive him. If he clears, pay his contract off as it sits. If he doesn't, good.

Yes it's very unlikely people will claim him, but his whole cap hit won't go. Looking at about 1m (league minimum + 375,000) as a hit just to not play him. That's not worth it in my view. Pay 1m a year to have 0 players, or pay the 5m to have an NHL calibre keeper (who may go on IR for full cap relief during the season anyway).

Also worth noting that he does have a Modified-NTC which means he is open to moving if the team is right. But of course that depends on which teams, and their needs.

EDIT: Looking at the cap hit for waiving Howard, it's likely much more than 1m. Halak (who has been mentioned recently as a similar situation) has a cap hit of 4.5m; post-waivers it's 3.5m, so I think that 1m for waiving Howard is just the relief. So you're still looking at around 4m cap hit for Howard to sit in the AHL. If someone can clarify that would be amazing.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Wing Across The Pond

[DickieDunn 2,571]

You only get the NHL vet minimum in cap relief. I think it's $975k right now. There is zero reason to stick Howard in GR.

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[Echolalia 2,961]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/blue-jackets-cut-curtis-mcelhinney-after-poor-start-vs-rangers-171459550.html

2.39 GAA .924 save percentage and 5-2 in seven games this season.  Blue Jackets waived him.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

On 1/9/2017 at 5:10 PM, Echolalia said:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/blue-jackets-cut-curtis-mcelhinney-after-poor-start-vs-rangers-171459550.html

2.39 GAA .924 save percentage and 5-2 in seven games this season.  Blue Jackets waived him.

And Toronto claimed him. Goalies have no value right now. Probably partially due to the expansion coming and some good goalies expected to be traded. 

[chaps80 1,591]

Yeah, there's not much value in goalies at this time. Tampa and Pitts are trying to trade Bishop and Fleury right now so they don't lose them for nothing. Bishop is UFA and they can't resign him with Vas being the one they want to move forward with and protect from Vegas. Fleury will surely be snatched by Vegas if he's not moved, and they can both probably be had for a low cost. Dallas will probably be looking to trade Neimi soon as well. Elliott is UFA and won't be resigned by Calgary. Tons going on.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

1 hour ago, chaps80 said:

Yeah, there's not much value in goalies at this time. Tampa and Pitts are trying to trade Bishop and Fleury right now so they don't lose them for nothing. Bishop is UFA and they can't resign him with Vas being the one they want to move forward with and protect from Vegas. Fleury will surely be snatched by Vegas if he's not moved, and they can both probably be had for a low cost. Dallas will probably be looking to trade Neimi soon as well. Elliott is UFA and won't be resigned by Calgary. Tons going on.

Yup. And the markets not going to move until one of Bishop or Fleury are dealt. Once that happens I expect the other to move quickly after, then things will open up.

[krsmith17 7,191]

Howard expected to play tomorrow night in Grand Rapids for conditioning stint.