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Hockeytown0001

Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

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Yeah, you know me. Always over valuing prospects. I mean, I've said I'd be thrilled if Mantha turned out to be as good as Franzen, Jurco as good as Abdelkader, Smith as good as Johnny Oduya, and Larkin as good as Kyle Turris. I'm really over the moon with my expectations of prospects.

Edited by kipwinger

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To be honest, I was more impressed with AA than Larkin in the 2nd half of the season. His movements are extremely fluid and he seems to think of what he's going to do way ahead of time. Almost all his goals this year were "right place at the right time" or using his speed to his advantage and letting D-man bite.

Edited by kickazz

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Though it's a much smaller sample size, I think AA was better than Larkin this year. His shooting percentage was unsustainable at 17%, so it will likely regress. But chances are he'll have a higher shooting percentage than Larkin because his one on one moves are better. Multi goal games should happen to him more regularly. Larkin scored 22 goals on 221 shots with a 10% shooting rate. Given the same number of games, quality of linemates, and ice time I'd expect AA to score more. His assist totals will also come up once he starts playing with guys who can finish as well. Again, it's hard to say what he'd do over a full season because his sample size is so small, but based on his skill set I'd expect him to be right in line (if not better) than Larkin over a full season even if his shooting regressed to a pretty reasonable 12%.

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We can't really compare Larkin and AA right now because AA didn't play 80 games at the NHL level. (or at all)

Larkin started off blowing everyone out of the water at the beginning of the season, but he started to slow down. This could have just as easily happened to AA and I think we are going to see exactly what kind of player he will become this upcoming season. I think people really under value the ability of players to play 80 games consistently

Having said that, I'm just as excited about AA as I am with Larkin. I think we have two different types of players here, but AA is probably the closest thing we will get to Datsyuk for a long time

Edited by WingsallTheway

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Yeah, you know me. Always over valuing prospects. I mean, I've said I'd be thrilled if Mantha turned out to be as good as Franzen, Jurco as good as Abdelkader, Smith as good as Johnny Oduya, and Larkin as good as Kyle Turris. I'm really over the moon with my expectations of prospects.

Just because you don't over value one guy doesn't mean you're not over valuing another. Prospects generally don't hit their ceiling. Trading them for a proven commodity is going to be a win more often than not. If they had moved Nyquist and Sproul plus maybe a pick when Sproul was tearing up the CHL and Nyquist was so good in GR thy ey probably could have gotten that defenseman or big scoring winger that they need right now. But no, can't trade them because of potential!

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And just because some prospects don't hit their ceilings doesn't mean you should trade other promising young prospects anticipating they won't hit theirs.

And be careful what you wish for. It wasn't too long ago that we very nearly traded promising young prospects Nyquist and Tatar for "proven" top four defender Jay Bouwmeester. That would have been smart right?

The problem with your scenario is exactly what you're accusing me of. You're dramatically undervaluing our prospects and romanticising the defender or power forward we would get in return. There is not a single defender or forward available who is worth losing that kind of prospect for. Not Trouba, not Shattenkirk, not Fowler. If they were as good as you're making them out to be they wouldnt be getting traded. More likely they're just another Jay Bouwmeester, and I'd rather not lose guys with AA's upside for that.

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http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/8/15/12470206/brotherly-love-should-the-wings-trade-for-ryan-miller

😀 Pure talk, but I will say that about 2 years ago I said the Wings will get Miller to play with his brother and end his career at home backing up Mrazek. It'd be too funny if it happens!

Just because you don't over value one guy doesn't mean you're not over valuing another. Prospects generally don't hit their ceiling. Trading them for a proven commodity is going to be a win more often than not. If they had moved Nyquist and Sproul plus maybe a pick when Sproul was tearing up the CHL and Nyquist was so good in GR thy ey probably could have gotten that defenseman or big scoring winger that they need right now. But no, can't trade them because of potential!

I like to go back to the Bobby Ryan trade. If Holland had the balls to deal Jarnkrok back then and a Nyquist with high end potential we'd of had and still have a top line scorer on this team. He may be declining a bit, but he is still better than most of our wingers now.

We can't really compare Larkin and AA right now because AA didn't play 80 games at the NHL level. (or at all)

Larkin started off blowing everyone out of the water at the beginning of the season, but he started to slow down. This could have just as easily happened to AA and I think we are going to see exactly what kind of player he will become this upcoming season. I think people really under value the ability of players to play 80 games consistently

Having said that, I'm just as excited about AA as I am with Larkin. I think we have two different types of players here, but AA is probably the closest thing we will get to Datsyuk for a long time

I think Larkin slower down because he was forced to play in our enept system. At the beginning of the year he was a wild hare and just played hard to make the team. But as he slowly learned the system, his stats suffered.

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I like to go back to the Bobby Ryan trade. If Holland had the balls to deal Jarnkrok back then and a Nyquist with high end potential we'd of had and still have a top line scorer on this team. He may be declining a bit, but he is still better than most of our wingers now....

There was also a first-round pick in that deal. So even assuming the Ducks would have taken Nyquist and Jarnkrok, it would have also cost us Larkin. Also, over the last 3 years, Nyquist has more goals than Ryan.

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http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/8/15/12470206/brotherly-love-should-the-wings-trade-for-ryan-miller

Pure talk, but I will say that about 2 years ago I said the Wings will get Miller to play with his brother and end his career at home backing up Mrazek. It'd be too funny if it happens!

I like to go back to the Bobby Ryan trade. If Holland had the balls to deal Jarnkrok back then and a Nyquist with high end potential we'd of had and still have a top line scorer on this team. He may be declining a bit, but he is still better than most of our wingers now.

I think Larkin slower down because he was forced to play in our enept system. At the beginning of the year he was a wild hare and just played hard to make the team. But as he slowly learned the system, his stats suffered.

I'll have to disagree, but of course theres no way of knowing because its all speculation

Larkin, prior to the end of the past season, had never played 82 games in a season before. NCAA teams play roughly 40 games a year, at a decreased level of intensity. Add the travel schedule and pressure of the NHL, and its pretty easy to get winded at the halfway point of the season. I fully expect Larkin to be more consistent this season.

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I stand firm with trading prospects. That was one thing Dave Dom browsing did really well for the Tigers. Whrn he traded Maybin, Miller, Ravello, and everyone else for Cabrera and Willis some fans list their minds because Maybin was a potential star and Miller was a potential top of the rotation lefty with a good fastball. Other than extending Willis immediately, that deal worked out pretty well.

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Hopefully Tatar and Nielsen can use that World Cup to build some early chemistry.

I can't tell if it's just the off season lack of hockey or what but I'm more excited for the World Cup of hockey than I thought I'd be.

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I stand firm with trading prospects. That was one thing Dave Dom browsing did really well for the Tigers. Whrn he traded Maybin, Miller, Ravello, and everyone else for Cabrera and Willis some fans list their minds because Maybin was a potential star and Miller was a potential top of the rotation lefty with a good fastball. Other than extending Willis immediately, that deal worked out pretty well.

You're conveniently leaving out two things. All the times Dombrowski traded away prospects for established players and got the better end of the deal, as well as all the times he traded prospects for established players and got burned.

Remember when he traded established all stars Granderson and Edwin Jackson and got two totally overrated prospects in Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer? Or how about trading Cespedes for that totally overvalued Fulmer guy?

Oh wait, turns out those prospects were pretty good huh?

Edited by kipwinger

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I stand firm with trading prospects. That was one thing Dave Dom browsing did really well for the Tigers. Whrn he traded Maybin, Miller, Ravello, and everyone else for Cabrera and Willis some fans list their minds because Maybin was a potential star and Miller was a potential top of the rotation lefty with a good fastball. Other than extending Willis immediately, that deal worked out pretty well.

So you would trade prospects for middle pairing defenseman? There's no top 2 D-man in the league that's available for trade from what I'm seeing. Why stack up on middle pairing D-men? We already have a lot of those.

And at one point, Cabrera was like the Ovechkin of baseball. Bad example.

Edited by kickazz

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So you would trade prospects for middle pairing defenseman? There's no top 2 D-man in the league that's available for trade from what I'm seeing. Why stack up on middle pairing D-men? We already have a lot of those.

And at one point, Cabrera was like the Ovechkin of baseball. Bad example.

Agreed....I dont think many people would be complaining if we traded AA or Mantha for someone like PK Subban. Using Miggy is an awful example as he was an elite MVP caliber talent.

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So you would trade prospects for middle pairing defenseman? There's no top 2 D-man in the league that's available for trade from what I'm seeing. Why stack up on middle pairing D-men? We already have a lot of those.

And at one point, Cabrera was like the Ovechkin of baseball. Bad example.

If he was better than what they have now, absolutely

So you would have pulled the trigger on the Nyquist and Tatar for Bouwmeester deal?

Not for both of them, but one plus XO, yes

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To be honest, I was more impressed with AA than Larkin in the 2nd half of the season. His movements are extremely fluid and he seems to think of what he's going to do way ahead of time. Almost all his goals this year were "right place at the right time" or using his speed to his advantage and letting D-man bite.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyvKkC03wYc

Those eyebrows.

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I wouldn't trade AA under any realistic circumstance. I don't even think he's scratched the surface of how good he's going to be. You don't find that combination of size, speed, and skill often. And that's not even his strongest trait. He's a very smart kid. You can tell by the way he talks about the game. About getting better. He doesn't speak in idiotic sports tropes. He's actually thinking.

That's what, IMO, separates him from a guy like Smith (or maybe even Mantha). Listen to Brendan talk sometime. He's a bonehead. All the physical gifts in the world but he will never be as good as his talent will allow because he's a dumbass.

AA is going to be very, very, good in this league. I'm calling that right now. At the very least he will be Kesler good. But I genuinely don't think its a stretch for him to be as good as Seguin is now, or Spezza was in his prime.

This Rosie outlook aside he could but Setagouchi, Cheechoo, or Barker good. Which is to say he may be playing in Europe 2-3 years from now.

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http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/8/15/12470206/brotherly-love-should-the-wings-trade-for-ryan-miller

😀 Pure talk, but I will say that about 2 years ago I said the Wings will get Miller to play with his brother and end his career at home backing up Mrazek. It'd be too funny if it happens!

I like to go back to the Bobby Ryan trade. If Holland had the balls to deal Jarnkrok back then and a Nyquist with high end potential we'd of had and still have a top line scorer on this team. He may be declining a bit, but he is still better than most of our wingers now.

I think Larkin slower down because he was forced to play in our enept system. At the beginning of the year he was a wild hare and just played hard to make the team. But as he slowly learned the system, his stats suffered.

The Wings didn't like Ryan's complete level in the playoffs. They decided he wasn't worth a trade because he wouldn't bring it when games matter most.

I'll have to disagree, but of course theres no way of knowing because its all speculation

Larkin, prior to the end of the past season, had never played 82 games in a season before. NCAA teams play roughly 40 games a year, at a decreased level of intensity. Add the travel schedule and pressure of the NHL, and its pretty easy to get winded at the halfway point of the season. I fully expect Larkin to be more consistent this season.

Many young players hit a wall in their first season in all four major sports. It is known.

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