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HockeytownRules19

Darren Helm re-signed: 5 years, $3.85m AAV

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Saying that Helm is overpaid is one thing, and myself along with every single person here have said the same thing. He is overpaid in cap (about $1M too much) as well as in term (a year or two too long). However, to say that Helm (as a player, forget his contract) is "very replaceable" is flat out wrong. A player with his speed, tenacity, forechecking and penalty killing ability has a ton of value to any team, especially in the playoffs. Again, yes he is slightly overpaid, but as long as he remains in the bottom 6, he should prove to be very valuable to the Red Wings for the next 3+ years. Also, I don't see the NTC as anything of significance. It's not like Holland would trade him in the next few years, even if he does become replaceable...

As for the few other teams that were willing to pay Helm even more, I'm sure there were, just like I'm sure close to every team in the league would love to have a Helm on their roster (again, looking at the player, not the contract).

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speed or not, he's a mediocre player. I'd be fine with him for 3 years and under $3 mil. Same with Abdelkader, 3 or 4 at $3.5 or so would be good. Glendening for 2 years at a mil per would be good. But when every free agent who is extended gets too much, it adds up in a hurry and starts causing major problems. One, it limits cap space and flexibility, and two when a good player hits free agency he looks at those guys and wants even morw than he might have been ok with otherwise.

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Hypothetical scenarios spoken like facts

They are facts. The Wings went from being on good shape cap wose to having no room. An actual 20 goal scorer is going to look at the contracts grinders got and want max years for significantly more money, that's how value is set. If Abdelkader is worth 7 years 4.25 aav for one 20 goal season, I'm worth 5 mil a year for 7 years for scoring 25.

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I agree with you Dickie, I just don't see the point in constantly bringing up Helm's contract, or others for that matter. Helm is an important piece to this team whether people want to admit that or not. We all would have liked a cheaper, shorter contract, but it's not, and Helm will be valuable player for the next few years. This team is worse without Helm in the lineup, I can't say the same for Miller or Ott or even Vanek...

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They are facts. The Wings went from being on good shape cap wose to having no room. An actual 20 goal scorer is going to look at the contracts grinders got and want max years for significantly more money, that's how value is set. If Abdelkader is worth 7 years 4.25 aav for one 20 goal season, I'm worth 5 mil a year for 7 years for scoring 25.

That's exactly what a 25 goal scorer is worth actually. Are you not keeping up with today's NHL? This isn't 1999 anymore.

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That's exactly what a 25 goal scorer is worth actually. Are you not keeping up with today's NHL? This isn't 1999 anymore.

Agreed, not to mention Abby isn't being paid what he is being paid solely for goals. Funny how when people are talking about player they like (ie. Fowler) this is brought up, but when its a player they dont like, it becomes all about goals (not you kickazz). Every player on a team has a role, d-man or forward. Abby's role is to play with grit, go in the corners, stick up for teammates etc. and at the same time be a top 50 goal scorer in a league of over 540 players (if you just count 12 forwards/6 d-man per team).

The guy has scored 42 goals over the last two years which puts him just below 50th in the NHL over that time (Oshie is 50th with 45 goals), he is the toughest/grittiest guy that we have, and on this team which is somewhat soft is definitely a player of value. He is easily worth 4.25mil/year. Now, in 2021 and 2022 will he be worth it, probably not, and I do wish that he signed for 5 years but this contract is just the reality of today's NHL.

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-2-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html

Edited by kliq

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Agreed, not to mention Abby isn't being paid what he is being paid solely for goals. Funny how when people are talking about player they like (ie. Fowler) this is brought up, but when its a player they dont like, it becomes all about goals (not you kickazz). Every player on a team has a role, d-man or forward. Abby's role is to play with grit, go in the corners, stick up for teammates etc. and at the same time be a top 50 goal scorer in a league of over 540 players (if you just count 12 forwards/6 d-man per team).

Lol exactly, I bring up goals in the other thread and people get all defensive and talk about how goals isn't the only attribute, but when it comes to Abby he's judged PURELY by goal scoring.

"20 goals or bust".

Edited by kickazz

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The guy has scored 42 goals over the last two years which puts him just below 50th in the NHL over that time (Oshie is 50th with 45 goals), he is the toughest/grittiest guy that we have, and on this team which is somewhat soft is definitely a player of value. He is easily worth 4.25mil/year. Now, in 2021 and 2022 will he be worth it, probably not, and I do wish that he signed for 5 years but this contract is just the reality of today's NHL.

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-2-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html

Interesting. He's above Anze Kopitar, Kesler, Van Reimsdyk, Zucarello, Lucic on that list.

So can we put the whole goal scoring argument to a rest then? He's scoring at similar rates to top players and makes less money or as much money.

In fact, we should just bring this up the next time someone tries to use goal scoring as an argument against Abby's contract. 42 goals in 2 seasons. Higher rate than the names I listed. Contracts looking good so far from the looks of it.

Edited by kickazz

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Forwards and d are judged based on different criteria. Wingers who get a 7 year deal that pays over $4 mil had damn well better put up points, and 15 goals over an 85 game stretch isn't close to good enough. Ditto for Helm and his lack of scoring ability.

These are the types of deals we laughed at when other teams gave them out. Now the same people are defending them because they're not "that bad." Virtually every analyst outsode of Detroit, where criticzing Holland is not allowed, who has talked about Holland's recent signings have bashed them. It's not just the "haters," and it's not just one or two contracts.

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Not necessarily saying this with any particular person in mind, but generally it seems like there are some issues with folks adapting to players as their roles expand. Helm will always be a 4th liner, Abdelkader will always be a third liner, and there's nothing that can be done to change that. Part of the problem I think is also that in order for LGW to label someone as a 3rd or 2nd or 1st line player they have to meet some imaginary quota for points per year. The points are always nice, but there are many players who are able to prove their worth on higher lines without necessarily putting up the numbers that their line mates may collect. Helm is overpayed. But definitely not enough to warrant the amount of bitching that LGW has created about it.

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I'm ok with Abdelkader playing on a scoring line as long as he's paid for the player he is. When Lapointe was a free agent and got a big offer from Boston, Holland wished him luck on his new team. Abdelkader and Helm hot free agency, he caved and gave them bad contracts. Glendening didn't even get that far before he got paid twice as much for twice as long as he should have. Dekeyser best case scenario is he's worth it. It could blow up in his face as bad as Ericsson's deal. On a good contract, best case is the deal ends up being good value for the team. Ericsson's deal blew up in his face. Howard didn't live up to his expectations. Zetterberg and Franzen aren't his fault but they still ended up being bad. Weiss was a gamble that bombed. Nielsen has almost zero chance of being worth close to his deal at the end.

Edited by DickieDunn

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I'm ok with Abdelkader playing on a scoring line as long as he's paid for the player he is. When Lapointe was a free agent and got a big offer from Boston, Holland wished him luck on his new team. Abdelkader and Helm hot free agency, he caved and gave them bad contracts. Glendening didn't even get that far before he got paid twice as much for twice as long as he should have. Dekeyser best case scenario is he's worth it. It could blow up in his face as bad as Ericsson's deal. On a good contract, best case is the deal ends up being good value for the team. Ericsson's deal blew up in his face. Howard didn't live up to his expectations. Zetterberg and Franzen aren't his fault but they still ended up being bad. Weiss was a gamble that bombed. Nielsen has almost zero chance of being worth close to his deal at the end.

Lol at the doom and gloom and hindsight bias.

Edited by kickazz

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The sky is indeed falling.

In the past few days, you've criticized deals for Z, Kronwall, Howard, Weiss, Franzen, Dekeyser, Ericsson, Helm, Abdelkader, Glendening, Neilson, Weiss, Howard, Vanek, Green and more. I think the list probably includes every UFA deal we've made in the recent memory. I would be curious what the last UFA deal you actually liked. Sure, some of these have been mistakes, but It seems that you are unrealistic about UFA deals in the modern NHL.

To use just one example, you have unrealistic expectations for UFA deals if you honestly think Glendening was going to get .900 for 2 years. The way the collective bargaining agreement is, UFAs get PAID. You have to be a cast-off, a buyout, or injured to get a 1-2 year deal as a 27 year old. I know you say "then let them walk", but I think everyone would be walking if a GM had your line of negotiations. Players and their agents would have to completely ignore all comparables.

Edited by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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Forwards and d are judged based on different criteria. Wingers who get a 7 year deal that pays over $4 mil had damn well better put up points, and 15 goals over an 85 game stretch isn't close to good enough. Ditto for Helm and his lack of scoring ability.

These are the types of deals we laughed at when other teams gave them out. Now the same people are defending them because they're not "that bad." Virtually every analyst outsode of Detroit, where criticzing Holland is not allowed, who has talked about Holland's recent signings have bashed them. It's not just the "haters," and it's not just one or two contracts.

I love how you skew your stats in order to spin your false narrative. What did you do, not count the first 2 games of the season because he scored 4, and then not count the last playoff game because he got 1 in an attempt to add validity to an already weak point?

If you are going to evaluate him, use the entire season, dont use every game but 3 because the 3 games you dont count he scored 5 goals.

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Forwards and d are judged based on different criteria. Wingers who get a 7 year deal that pays over $4 mil had damn well better put up points, and 15 goals over an 85 game stretch isn't close to good enough. Ditto for Helm and his lack of scoring ability.

These are the types of deals we laughed at when other teams gave them out. Now the same people are defending them because they're not "that bad." Virtually every analyst outsode of Detroit, where criticzing Holland is not allowed, who has talked about Holland's recent signings have bashed them. It's not just the "haters," and it's not just one or two contracts.

Say that to Erik Karlsson the Norris Trophy winner.

I love how you skew your stats in order to spin your false narrative. What did you do, not count the first 2 games of the season because he scored 4, and then not count the last playoff game because he got 1 in an attempt to add validity to an already weak point?

If you are going to evaluate him, use the entire season, dont use every game but 3 because the 3 games you dont count he scored 5 goals.

Hahahahahahahahah. Good catch didn't even notice that. I was wondering wtf that stat was about...

This is almost as bad as Bill Berzeench and his issue with Miller.

Edited by kickazz

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I would hope everyone agrees that there is more than just scoring. You can't have a team simply filled with scorers. Team USA in the World Cup is a good example of that...there are certain players that would be on the team if that was the main focus (e.g. Kessel). There are a lot of really good forwards in the league, bring tons of value, but don't score a lot.

However, to get paid the bigger dollars, you need to score. So from my perspective, I'd tend to look at stats when a forward is getting paid a lot, because to get paid a lot, you should have stats to back it up. I think you need to separate that from the thought process as to whether you think the player is good or not, or whether you want him on the team. Helm is a great recent example for me. I like him, think he's a good, valuable player to the team, but I do think he's overpaid.

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So you agree that there is more to the game than scoring, just that players should only be rewarded (salary / term) if they put up big points? Players that do all the other little things shouldn't be rewarded for it?... You think for a player to get paid a lot, they should have the "stats" to back it up? And by stats I guess you just mean two stats, goals and points? Forget the hundreds of other stats that can aid in evaluating a players worth...

"But I do think he's overpaid"... Why do people keep saying this over and over and over again? Who is arguing that? No one. Helm is slightly over paid, but losing him would have left a big hole, Holland knew that, so he was willing to give him a little more to keep him. Keeping Helm was smart, signing / re-signing some other players, not so much, but yet we will continue to hear about this for the duration of the contract...

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So you agree that there is more to the game than scoring, just that players should only be rewarded (salary / term) if they put up big points? Players that do all the other little things shouldn't be rewarded for it?... You think for a player to get paid a lot, they should have the "stats" to back it up? And by stats I guess you just mean two stats, goals and points? Forget the hundreds of other stats that can aid in evaluating a players worth...

"But I do think he's overpaid"... Why do people keep saying this over and over and over again? Who is arguing that? No one. Helm is slightly over paid, but losing him would have left a big hole, Holland knew that, so he was willing to give him a little more to keep him. Keeping Helm was smart, signing / re-signing some other players, not so much, but yet we will continue to hear about this for the duration of the contract...

Yes, I absolutely do think you need to score to get big dollars and yes, it comes down to two stats, goals and assists. This isn't necessarily my opinion though, I just think this is the way it is. Whether I agree with that is a different question, one I haven't spent much time thinking about. I think I'd tend to lean in that direction as well though. My guess is that teams have historically paid this way (to be clear, we are still only talking about forwards) because teams feel that all the other things forwards can do to bring value can be taught and gained through hard work. A lot of people feel that you really need god given talent to produce points in the league, no teaching or hard work is going to change that. Of course, teaching hard work, etc. may improve that and give you points you wouldn't have otherwise had, but you aren't going to go from 30pts a year to 90pts a year because of hard work and teaching.

A lot of coaches feel they can mold a player on the other aspects of the game though. So, while a player is very valuable, if they don't score, they don't necessarily get paid too much because teams feel they can replace them and mold another player to do the same thing.

Now Helm is a little different though, he's got top end speed, which is similar to scoring in that you can improve a little through hard work, but in reality, you either have it or you don't.

Anyway, if anyone has me in a basket of Helm bashers, you shouldn't. I simply think he's overpaid, I still want him. I think he's getting too much per year, 5 years is too long and NTC on top of that is really strange to me. I think most teams are moving away from that and you'd think the guys that would get it would be limited to "superstars." - I know it hasn't always been that way and several people were getting these for a while, I just thought most moved away from it.

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You say "big dollars", but Helm isn't getting paid big dollars, far from it in today's NHL...

I'm not sure what people think market value is for the average 3rd line player, but I don't think what Helm is making is that far off. I think a fair breakdown for NHL forwards salaries is something along the lines of...

4th liner = $0.5-1.5M

3rd liner = $1.5-3.5M

2nd liner = $3.5-5.5M

1st liner = $5.5-7.5M

elite = $7.5+

So yes, he may be slightly overpaid, but I just don't think it's worth all the b****ing and moaning people are doing...

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You say "big dollars", but Helm isn't getting paid big dollars, far from it in today's NHL...

I'm not sure what people think market value is for the average 3rd line player, but I don't think what Helm is making is that far off. I think a fair breakdown for NHL forwards salaries is something along the lines of...

4th liner = $0.5-1.5M

3rd liner = $1.5-3.5M

2nd liner = $3.5-5.5M

1st liner = $5.5-7.5M

elite = $7.5+

So yes, he may be slightly overpaid, but I just don't think it's worth all the b****ing and moaning people are doing...

So, I'll admit, when I saw Helm and $3.85 I thought, WOW, that's a lot, but it wasn't based on any real facts, just a gut reaction....perhaps it was out of date...guys are making more, etc. So I quickly checked the real numbers to see how your buckets match up. I think you've estimated pretty well, except the range you've given for 3rd liners seems way out of wack.

Here's what I came up with purely based on the top earners (forwards) for each team (1-3, 4-6, 7-9, etc.). The numbers here are the averages of all 30 teams. So, there is some holes you can poke (when did they sign, UFA vs. RFA, etc.), but I think this is the closest to reality you can do without spending too much time on it, since it really isn't worth it.

4th - $0.81 - $1.2M

3rd - $1.46 - $2.6M

2nd - $3.18 - $4.44M

1st - $5.09 - $7.14M

So, if everyone thinks Helm is a 3rd liner (which he is on DET based on ice time), then $3.85M looks like more than just a little overpaid. HOWEVER, some teams have better quality 3rd liners than others, warranting being paid more than the average....which I think is warranted for Helm, but I just think it's gone way further than what's warranted and then tack on the years and NTC that makes me go WOW!

No big deal, but it doesn't make me go WOW!

Edit: If I was really upset and felt strongly about it, which I'm not...no big deal to me, but if I was, I'd try to put in the time to come up with comparables....at his level of offsensive production + all the other intangibles, etc....try to see where he fits vs. other players in the league with similar attributes. Maybe you'd see that a $20M contract makes sense.

Edited by toby91_ca

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Helm would have got that money elsewhere anyways. Maybe not the term/NTC, but I remember hearing quite a few teams wanted him, and maybe that term/NTC was the difference between him staying or leaving. Not often I defend Holland, but he did what he had to do to keep him, even if he was given a bit too much.

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