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Dabura

2020 Offseason Rebuild Thread

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2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

 You dont need to swear.  Im just having a civil discussion with you.

 

Lafreniere-Athanasiou-Zadina

 

That better?

 

Of the three AA is the only one who has actually played center, so it's better than your first attempt.  I I still think the line sucks though, but that's a different discussion. 

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I think CHI tried Kane at center for a moment. It was pretty fail if I remember right. 2011 or 2012, I forget.

Lafreniere is compared to Kane the most from what I've been reading. I'd rather him just stay wing.

Edited by xault

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17 minutes ago, xault said:

I think CHI tried Kane at center for a moment. It was pretty fail if I remember right. 2011 or 2012, I forget.

Lafreniere is compared to Kane the most from what I've been reading. I'd rather him just stay wing.

I haven't heard a single comparison of Lafreniere to Kane. Maybe you're thinking this year's 1st overall pick, Hughes? Hughes is very similar to Kane. Lafreniere, not so much in my opinion...

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11 hours ago, ely s said:

sucking sucks today, but not tomorrow.

Well, that's the hope. It's what we tell ourselves to help make the losing tolerable.

Mind you, I don't disagree with where you're coming from. (I Like'd your post.) It's just a difficult head-versus-heart thing for me, which is made all the more difficult for me by my pathological ability to play devil's advocate and rationalize diametrically opposed viewpoints (if only for rhetorical sport). Push-and-pull. Want-but-do-not-want. I say it a lot: I don't know how Oilers fans do it. I miss the simpler times. I miss "We have to make the playoffs and win the Cup. Period."

For what it's worth, I do believe this Wings team is capable of making the 2020 playoffs. Not because I believe this team stacks up really well against most of the teams in our division (I don't believe that) but because in today's NHL you just kind of expect there to be one or two surprise overachievers every season. Everyone believed Vegas would blow chunks in their inaugural season, and we all know what happened. (And that Knights team was not significantly better than our projected 2019-20 Wings team, on paper.) Everyone believed the 2018-19 Isles would blow chunks, and we all know what happened. (And that Isles team was not significantly better than our projected 2019-20 Wings team, on paper.)

All a team really needs is monster seasons from two or three key players. That can be enough to get you into the playoffs.

Larkin hitting 80 points would be huge, largely because it'd probably mean we got 20-25-goal seasons from multiple players and at least one 30-goal season from someone.

If Mantha can refrain from breaking his hands on third-pairing defensemen's faces, that would be big. Having the Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha line in place straight out of the gate could be big.

If Hronek picks up right where he left off this past season and maintains that scoring pace over the course of an entire season, that would be yuuuge. Hell, a solid power play may have been enough to get us into the playoffs this past season, so the fact that Hronek is a natural PP QB is exciting.

Losing Vanek is arguably addition by subtraction; he put up points, but the 2018-19 Red Wings season often felt to me like one of those Make-A-Wish dream-come-true dealies for a grown-ass man in Thomas Vanek.

I'm actually kind of bullish on Nemeth; while we do need more scoring from our back end and Nemeth is in no way a point-producer, I think we've kind of overlooked the importance of having at least a couple of big steady shutdown defenders. I don't mind DeKeyser as our top shutdown guy for the time being, but he can only do so much. Ericsson's had his moments, but they've been few and far between and I believe his body has been falling apart for some time now.

Howard will be playing for another contract and I assume he wants to stay in Detroit; I'm expecting him to be pretty motivated. He's capable of getting hot for extended periods of time. We'll need one hell of a season from him if we're going to seriously challenge for a playoff berth.

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22 minutes ago, Dabura said:

[...]

We'll need one hell of a season from him if we're going to seriously challenge for a playoff berth.

(Great post, sorry to extract just the last bit to respond to.)

The big question, as I see it, is: does making the playoffs this season improve our long-term chances of being a consistently competitive hockey team?

where "competitive" = challenging for Stanley Cups.

Edited by Prolix

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19 minutes ago, Prolix said:

(Great post, sorry to extract just the last bit to respond to.)

The big question, as I see it, is: does making the playoffs this season improve our long-term chances of being a consistently competitive hockey team?

where "competitive" = challenging for Stanley Cups.

That's the dilemma for Wings fans. On the one hand, f*** yes we want our team in the 2020 playoffs! On the other hand, conventional wisdom says the Wings need to suck a little while longer so that Yzerman can build a proper foundation for what we hope would be a sustainably good team.

The way I've chosen to approach this whole business is "Root for wins, be happy when we win, and be ok with losses."

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5 hours ago, Dabura said:

That's the dilemma for Wings fans. On the one hand, f*** yes we want our team in the 2020 playoffs! On the other hand, conventional wisdom says the Wings need to suck a little while longer so that Yzerman can build a proper foundation for what we hope would be a sustainably good team.

The way I've chosen to approach this whole business is "Root for wins, be happy when we win, and be ok with losses."

Precisely. I will never be against winning. I adore watching the red boys win. The 15 game stretch at the end of the season where Bertuzzi Larkin and Mantha were clicking like the next big thing was awesome to watch. I was very annoyed by fans that were angry that we were winning. Those games were big confidence boosters for the future leaders of our team. And f*** it, Yzerman was taking Seider regardless of where we picked.

And of course losing is good for our situation too,so I'm generally ok when it happens.

So basically my mood level is:

Red Wings
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the rebuild

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5 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Precisely. I will never be against winning. I adore watching the red boys win. The 15 game stretch at the end of the season where Bertuzzi Larkin and Mantha were clicking like the next big thing was awesome to watch. I was very annoyed by fans that were angry that we were winning. Those games were big confidence boosters for the future leaders of our team. And f*** it, Yzerman was taking Seider regardless of where we picked.

And of course losing is good for our situation too,so I'm generally ok when it happens.

So basically my mood level is:

Red Wings
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the rebuild

I don't know about that. I highly doubt Yzerman would have taken Seider in the top 2 or 3. It would be interesting though to see their draft board. I wonder if Yzerman had Seider as the number one ranked defenseman, ahead of Byram?...

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14 hours ago, Dabura said:

That's the dilemma for Wings fans. On the one hand, f*** yes we want our team in the 2020 playoffs! On the other hand, conventional wisdom says the Wings need to suck a little while longer so that Yzerman can build a proper foundation for what we hope would be a sustainably good team.

The way I've chosen to approach this whole business is "Root for wins, be happy when we win, and be ok with losses."

Who knows, maybe this year we become competitive, just barely don't make the playoffs and then land the highest pick we have gotten in years like the NYR and Chicago did this year.

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11 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Yzerman was taking Seider regardless of where we picked.

I'm thinking he wouldn't have taken him if we remained 4th or better. but 5th or worse, yes.

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2 hours ago, kliq said:

 

Who knows, maybe this year we become competitive, just barely don't make the playoffs and then land the highest pick we have gotten in years like the NYR and Chicago did this year.

But that is the least likely outcome. You can't do serious long-term planning for a team based around literal chance. 

Yzerman has to make choices now based around the roster now and the prospects in the system now. 

Edited by Prolix

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I feel like the league is going to give us Lafreniere this next draft.  They took care of the big market teamsthe last 3-4 drafts.  I think they are going to help out Detroit next year.  A good benefit to getting #1 is getting #32 as well.

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3 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

 

I feel like the league is going to give us Lafreniere this next draft.  They took care of the big market teamsthe last 3-4 drafts.  I think they are going to help out Detroit next year.  A good benefit to getting #1 is getting #32 as well.

The draft lottery doesn't affect picks beyond the 1st round.

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7 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

 

I feel like the league is going to give us Lafreniere this next draft.  They took care of the big market teamsthe last 3-4 drafts.  I think they are going to help out Detroit next year.  A good benefit to getting #1 is getting #32 as well.

only if we finish last will we get #32. we could get #1 by finishing 14th.

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13 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I don't know about that. I highly doubt Yzerman would have taken Seider in the top 2 or 3. It would be interesting though to see their draft board. I wonder if Yzerman had Seider as the number one ranked defenseman, ahead of Byram?...

 

7 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

I'm thinking he wouldn't have taken him if we remained 4th or better. but 5th or worse, yes.

Yeah I meant if we won MORE games and lowered our draft position. Seider was the guy regardless. Who knows if Holland would have taken him at 8 though.

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On 7/26/2019 at 7:58 PM, Prolix said:

The big question, as I see it, is: does making the playoffs this season improve our long-term chances of being a consistently competitive hockey team?

where "competitive" = challenging for Stanley Cups.

You're talking a fairly wide range of results. Finishing 9th then getting the 15th OA pick is still missing the playoffs. But putting that aside and assuming we're only talking about finishing near the bottom and getting a top-5 pick vs being a wild card and losing in the first round, you still have to look beyond just the result. Why we make or miss the playoffs is much more important than whether.

I can't agree with the "sucking now will make us better later" idea. The team is going to have a bunch of players at or near their prime. Players who we would expect to be contributors, to a greater or lesser degree, to any competitive iteration of the team in the future. If we "suck", it would likely be because several players who we need to be good, weren't. And that's probably worse for our long-term outlook than whoever we'd draft at #4 would be good for it. Conversely, if we make the playoffs it would likely be because those players perform even better than what we expect. Also better long-term than our 1st pick would be.

I want our younger players to do well, not just in terms of scoring points (particularly if 1/3rd of those points are the result of just a handful of big games), but also in learning how to impact games. Learning how to win. Obviously that would mean actually doing some winning. So if it's a choice between being mediocre, missing the playoffs, and picking 12th, or being a bit better mediocre, making the playoffs, and picking 18th I'd take the latter every time.

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Agreed, at this point or long term success is more likely to hinge on whether Veleno, Rasmussen, Zadina, Cholowski, Lindstrom/McIsaac, Sieder, and Larsson can viably fill all the holes in the lineup rather than whether we get another lottery pick.  At this point our forwards outside Mantha, Bert, Larkin, and AA are HORRIBLE.  We essentially need five middle six forwards, about 3 of which need to be impact players.  We need 3 top four defensemen.  A couple of goalies. 

Adding a Lafreniere would be nice, all things being equal, but I'd MUCH rather see a few of the guys mentioned above (or others) step up and fill those roles at a competitive level than see a bunch of them underwhelm but add a top end pick. 

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15 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

The draft lottery doesn't affect picks beyond the 1st round.

Good point.  Forgot about that.

 

11 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

only if we finish last will we get #32. we could get #1 by finishing 14th.

Im torn.  We need the better odds at this point.  Hope we tank.

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21 hours ago, Prolix said:

But that is the least likely outcome. You can't do serious long-term planning for a team based around literal chance. 

Yzerman has to make choices now based around the roster now and the prospects in the system now. 

If you interpreted my comments to mean that I think Yzerman should plan based on chance, you misinterpreted my comments.

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On 7/26/2019 at 3:52 PM, krsmith17 said:

I haven't heard a single comparison of Lafreniere to Kane. Maybe you're thinking this year's 1st overall pick, Hughes? Hughes is very similar to Kane. Lafreniere, not so much in my opinion...

Yes, you are right. Major brain fart on my end.

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I'd define the current window we are in as: The Larkin's First Contract Window (4 years remaining)

After this 4 year window Larkin will become UFA and will likely command somewhere between $9 and $12 million by today's cap. That will change the landscape of this team a bit, and If we aren't already there I think we should be clearly transitioning into a win now mode by that point.

So basically I think the absolute max on this Yzerman rebuild should be the next 4 seasons.

Year 1 (2019-20 season)
Primary goal: Sign Mantha, AA, and Bertuzzi to favorable extensions

  • I'd like to see something like 3-5 year extensions for each. Locking them in for the prime years of their careers. If there are performance/negotiation issues this season maybe a 1 year prove-it/bridge extension, maintaining RFA control after the contract is up.

Secondary goal: Sell UFA's for extra picks.

  • This is secondary because it will be based on the performance of the team this year, and who knows, maybe we flirt with the playoffs. Also the two primary pieces are Howard and Green. Both vets who seem to want to be here long term so I'm not opposed to re-signing them to shorter cheaper deals as well.

Year 2 (2020-21 season)
Primary goal: Remain lean

  • I think we should remain patient and have a similar offseason to this one. AKA make some good draft picks, sign maybe a stop-gap or two if needed, and shed contracts (Ericsson and Daley primarily). The Seattle expansion is looming and if we remain lean we won't be forced to lose much of anything of value.

Secondary goal: Sell UFA's for extra picks

  • We have Helm, Filppula, Nemeth, and Bernier leaving the roster at the end of this season. We may not get anything of value for them at the TDL, so it may just be worth it to ride out the season with them. Hence a secondary goal.

Year 3 (2021-22 season)
Primary goal: Acceleration

  • Yzerman now has 3 drafts under his belt and the team should look drastically different at this point. The only contracts remaining from the Holland era at this point are Larkin, Abdelkader, Nielsen, and Dekeyser, with the last 2 about to expire. The expansion draft should be in the rearview and so I think now is the right time to put the peddle down and chase big names in FA or trade. Even if we are not a top contender it would be good to start at least making the playoffs to get the kids some post season experience.

Year 4 (2022-23 season)
Primary goal: Same as year 3

  • We should be focused on signing Larkin to a franchise record contract extension and adding to a young roster where hopefully other elite players like Zadina and Seider etc have emerged to lead the team. After this season Abby's big contract will be off the books which in my mind will finally put to bed the Holland era and a new window of Red Wings hockey should open.

Next Window: Larkin's Second Contract AKA the return to cup contention.

 

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I'd define the current window we are in as: The Larkin's First Contract Window (4 years remaining)

After this 4 year window Larkin will become UFA and will likely command somewhere between $9 and $12 million by today's cap. That will change the landscape of this team a bit, and If we aren't already there I think we should be clearly transitioning into a win now mode by that point.

So basically I think the absolute max on this Yzerman rebuild should be the next 4 seasons.

Year 1 (2019-20 season)
Primary goal: Sign Mantha, AA, and Bertuzzi to favorable extensions

  • I'd like to see something like 3-5 year extensions for each. Locking them in for the prime years of their careers. If there are performance/negotiation issues this season maybe a 1 year prove-it/bridge extension, maintaining RFA control after the contract is up.

Secondary goal: Sell UFA's for extra picks.

  • This is secondary because it will be based on the performance of the team this year, and who knows, maybe we flirt with the playoffs. Also the two primary pieces are Howard and Green. Both vets who seem to want to be here long term so I'm not opposed to re-signing them to shorter cheaper deals as well.

Year 2 (2020-21 season)
Primary goal: Remain lean

  • I think we should remain patient and have a similar offseason to this one. AKA make some good draft picks, sign maybe a stop-gap or two if needed, and shed contracts (Ericsson and Daley primarily). The Seattle expansion is looming and if we remain lean we won't be forced to lose much of anything of value.

Secondary goal: Sell UFA's for extra picks

  • We have Helm, Filppula, Nemeth, and Bernier leaving the roster at the end of this season. We may not get anything of value for them at the TDL, so it may just be worth it to ride out the season with them. Hence a secondary goal.

Year 3 (2021-22 season)
Primary goal: Acceleration

  • Yzerman now has 3 drafts under his belt and the team should look drastically different at this point. The only contracts remaining from the Holland era at this point are Larkin, Abdelkader, Nielsen, and Dekeyser, with the last 2 about to expire. The expansion draft should be in the rearview and so I think now is the right time to put the peddle down and chase big names in FA or trade. Even if we are not a top contender it would be good to start at least making the playoffs to get the kids some post season experience.

Year 4 (2022-23 season)
Primary goal: Same as year 3

  • We should be focused on signing Larkin to a franchise record contract extension and adding to a young roster where hopefully other elite players like Zadina and Seider etc have emerged to lead the team. After this season Abby's big contract will be off the books which in my mind will finally put to bed the Holland era and a new window of Red Wings hockey should open.

Next Window: Larkin's Second Contract AKA the return to cup contention.

 

Nice post.  Well thought out.

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3 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I'd define the current window we are in as: The Larkin's First Contract Window (4 years remaining)...

:bad:

If our plan is anything like that we need to trade Mantha, AA, Bert, and anyone else older than Larkin asap for as many picks as we can get. 

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9 minutes ago, Buppy said:

:bad:

If our plan is anything like that we need to trade Mantha, AA, Bert, and anyone else older than Larkin asap for as many picks as we can get. 

IDK if that needs to be ASAP, but depending on the situation I'd be ok trading any of them within the 4 year window for the right package.

All three will be about 28 in 4 years. Ideally I'd like to hold each of those players till about 29/30. Then either commit to them as veteran leaders or ship them off.

As I pointed out in my take on the next 4 years, I'd like to start accelerating this thing in year 3. I think it's probably necessary to have them, or a similar player in their place, on the roster if that's going to happen.

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8 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

IDK if that needs to be ASAP, but depending on the situation I'd be ok trading any of them within the 4 year window for the right package.

All three will be about 28 in 4 years. Ideally I'd like to hold each of those players till about 29/30. Then either commit to them as veteran leaders or ship them off.

As I pointed out in my take on the next 4 years, I'd like to start accelerating this thing in year 3. I think it's probably necessary to have them, or a similar player in their place, on the roster if that's going to happen.

That's why you'd have to trade them right away. (Ideally in this scenario we should have traded them before this year's draft.) Give the picks (or prospects would also work) time to develop. If you wait until they're on the cusp of UFA, your return will be lower and won't fit your timetable. You'd also have the secondary benefit of making the team worse in the short term and getting higher picks.

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