New New Prospects Thread

[kipwinger 8,520]

20 minutes ago, redw1ngs said:

I see this 'projected to go top 3' nonsense quite often. Why does that matter> why does 6oa even matter? Judge him on what hes doing now not where he was drafted or even worse where he was 'projected' to be drafted. Zadina isnt Tkachuk or Monahan or Zibanejad but hes a heck of alot better then alot of other former 6oa picks. Zibanejads first 3 seasons 74gp 11g 21a 32pts 0.43pts/g is very similar to Zadinas current pace. 

It matters because draft picks are investments. Like all investments, you expect a return on them. Ideally, the more costly the investment the greater the return.

[redw1ngs 149]

4 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

It matters because draft picks are investments. Like all investments, you expect a return on them. Ideally, the more costly the investment the greater the return.

I get what your saying about where they were drafted but why does it matter where they were 'projected' to be drafted?

100k investment drops 30k. You buy it at 70k. how much is it worth to you? 70k you paid or 100k it was 3 months ago?

[bIueadams 776]

3 hours ago, redw1ngs said:

First Raymond comp now Datsyuk? I get why some fans are disappointed with these lofty expectations. Zadina shouldnt be held to such high standard.

You're using a strawman argument here. All I did was compare Datsyuk and Zadina's ability to strip pucks, since he's the best at this on the team since Datsyuk. And I'm praising Zadina for this ability.

Raymond and Zadina should absolutely be compared. Both RH wingers. Both ranked top5. Both selected at similar spots. How can you possibly argue they shouldn't be compared?

3 hours ago, redw1ngs said:

I agree that he needs a much better c than Suter. A 2nd line of Zadina-a+c-Vrana would be dangerous af. A lot of people didnt think Larkin was a 1c now that lazyloaf Mantha was swapped out with a young elite winger everyones tune has changed on Lark. Theres no question hes a 1c. Give Z some capable linemates and he should start producing aswell.

I mean... why do you think this? Fancy stats? I just extensively described his game to you and its numerous faults. Do you disagree with my take? Do you think his shots are suddenly going to be top cheese with a new center? I agree Zadina would do better with a better center, any winger would. But I don't think Suter is the Mantha (problem child) here. Suter showed what he can do with great wingers with the Hawks... The Mantha is Zadina.

1 hour ago, redw1ngs said:

I see this 'projected to go top 3' nonsense quite often. Why does that matter> why does 6oa even matter? Judge him on what hes doing now not where he was drafted or even worse where he was 'projected' to be drafted. Zadina isnt Tkachuk or Monahan or Zibanejad but hes a heck of alot better then alot of other former 6oa picks. Zibanejads first 3 seasons 74gp 11g 21a 32pts 0.43pts/g is very similar to Zadinas current pace. 

>don't compare him to other 6oa picks
>compares him to other 6oa picks

I did judge him on "what he's doing now". He's a perimeter winger that doesn't drive offense, can't hit the net, and back checks hard.

Edited November 23, 2021 by bIueadams

[redw1ngs 149]

3 minutes ago, bIueadams said:

Raymond and Zadina should absolutely be compared. Both RH wingers. Both ranked top5. Both selected at similar spots. How can you possibly argue they shouldn't be compared?

One is elite the other is not. simple as that. Why not compare him to the rest of his draft class? because hes better then Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Kravtsov, etc. How bout the same pick 1 draft earlier? because hes better then Cody Glass.

[bIueadams 776]

4 minutes ago, redw1ngs said:

One is elite the other is not. simple as that. Why not compare him to the rest of his draft class? because hes better then Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Kravtsov, etc. How bout the same pick 1 draft earlier? because hes better then Cody Glass.

So you're argument here is: Look at this other poop, that makes our poop okay.

I mean if you're fine with how Zadina is, great. I won't try to convince you. But he's still no more valuable to this team than Slava Namestnikov is. Assuming Slava comes down off his hot streak here. Why so eager to defend sucha player?

 

[redw1ngs 149]

4 minutes ago, bIueadams said:

So you're argument here is: Look at this other poop, that makes our poop okay.

I mean if you're fine with how Zadina is, great. I won't try to convince you. But he's still no more valuable to this team than Slava Namestnikov is. Assuming Slava comes down off his hot streak here. Why so eager to defend sucha player?

 

Im comparing him to poop your comparing him to the gold standard. A fair comparison likely falls somewhere in between coincidentally right about where Zadina himself would fall.

Oil fans wanted Pulju out of town too. Im sure there happy now that Holland wasnt as trigger happy on the young winger. Namestnikov is nearly 10yrs older then Zadina. Some of these players need time. imo Zadina is one of those players.

[town123 174]

2 hours ago, redw1ngs said:

I get what your saying about where they were drafted but why does it matter where they were 'projected' to be drafted?

100k investment drops 30k. You buy it at 70k. how much is it worth to you? 70k you paid or 100k it was 3 months ago?

Or now after a few seasons that investment is only worth 35k.   Hopefully when Vrana comes back and Wright is his centre... he's worth a bit more.

[bIueadams 776]

35 minutes ago, redw1ngs said:

Im comparing him to poop your comparing him to the gold standard. A fair comparison likely falls somewhere in between coincidentally right about where Zadina himself would fall.

Oil fans wanted Pulju out of town too. Im sure there happy now that Holland wasnt as trigger happy on the young winger. Namestnikov is nearly 10yrs older then Zadina. Some of these players need time. imo Zadina is one of those players.

Bingo. You're entire stance boils down "he's too young".

This is the same shallow defense fans levied in 2018, 2019, 2020, and now here in 2021.

How many games does he have to play and/or how old does he have to be before you can actually start to be critical of his game? Seriously, what's the cut off?

Zadina is 21 with 100+ games played. This team gave up on Svech at 23 with 20 games played. This team gave up on Cholowski at 22 with 90 games played.

The time for him to start showing real progress is rapidly approaching for him. Yet he appears worse than ever this year while the rest of the team is accelerating forward.

I would be inclined to accept your "too young" argument if I could see any reason to suggest he has the talent and tools to one day turn it on. I don't. Mantha and AA didn't blossom till they were roughly 24, but you could see both oozed talent and untapped potential under the surface. I don't see any of that with Zadina. This is a Brendan Smith scenario we're in IMO. 

[kipwinger 8,520]

3 hours ago, redw1ngs said:

I get what your saying about where they were drafted but why does it matter where they were 'projected' to be drafted?

100k investment drops 30k. You buy it at 70k. how much is it worth to you? 70k you paid or 100k it was 3 months ago?

I think when people bring up his projection it’s for two reasons. First, because projections help set fan expectations and that’s relevant to the conversation we are having on LGW. Second, those projections reflect the opinions of more than a few professional scouts, former GMs, and other talent evaluators. It was not unreasonable to come out of that draft thinking we had a player that had the talent level of a top 3-5 pick. That is also relevant to this conversation.

Edit: (To address your example) You don't buy stocks based on their price, you buy them based on how you expect them to perform. The price of any given stock is based on it's valuation (i.e. track record of success). Any investment that makes money is a good one, but some are more valuable than others. And you pay more for stocks that are going to make you more money. If you pay a lot for a stock that makes you the same as a cheaper stock, you're a bad investor. So back to your example, a stock that had devalued by 30% (from 100K down to 70K) in three months would be a riskier investment than one that's remained at 70K for those same three months. Similarly, you invest a top 5-10 pick in an NHL prospect because you expect it to perform better than a 10-15th overall pick. These players valuations are determined by everything they've done on the ice up to draft day. Ken Holland picked Zadina thinking he was getting a top 5 talent at 6th overall. Lots of people thought that. And maybe he will be. But it's hard not to think of the stock that dropped 30% in three months when thinking about a prospect who's "stock dropped" on draft day. Zadina, Veleno, Mantha. None of them have been as good as what we thought we were getting because their valuations were flawed in the first place.

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by kipwinger

[redw1ngs 149]

34 minutes ago, bIueadams said:

Bingo. You're entire stance boils down "he's too young".

This is the same shallow defense fans levied in 2018, 2019, 2020, and now here in 2021.

How many games does he have to play and/or how old does he have to be before you can actually start to be critical of his game? Seriously, what's the cut off?

Zadina is 21 with 100+ games played. This team gave up on Svech at 23 with 20 games played. This team gave up on Cholowski at 22 with 90 games played.

The time for him to start showing real progress is rapidly approaching for him. Yet he appears worse than ever this year while the rest of the team is accelerating forward.

I would be inclined to accept your "too young" argument if I could see any reason to suggest he has the talent and tools to one day turn it on. I don't. Mantha and AA didn't blossom till they were roughly 24, but you could see both oozed talent and untapped potential under the surface. I don't see any of that with Zadina. This is a Brendan Smith scenario we're in IMO. 

I think around 23yo is a reasonable cutoff but as we know all to well that varies from player to player. For the record I was in agreement with you on Svech. The org gave up on him to early imo. It is kind of strange that you think the team gave up on Svech to early but its not to early to give up on Zadina now. Unless you think gp is the only factor to consider and age doesnt matter.

[redw1ngs 149]

37 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I think when people bring up his projection it’s for two reasons. First, because projections help set fan expectations and that’s relevant to the conversation we are having on LGW. Second, those projections reflect the opinions of more than a few professional scouts, former GMs, and other talent evaluators. It was not unreasonable to come out of that draft thinking we had a player that had the talent level of a top 3-5 pick. That is also relevant to this conversation.

Edit: (To address your example) You don't buy stocks based on their price, you buy them based on how you expect them to perform. The price of any given stock is based on it's valuation (i.e. track record of success). Any investment that makes money is a good one, but some are more valuable than others. And you pay more for stocks that are going to make you more money. If you pay a lot for a stock that makes you the same as a cheaper stock, you're a bad investor. So back to your example, a stock that had devalued by 30% (from 100K down to 70K) in three months would be a riskier investment than one that's remained at 70K for those same three months. Similarly, you invest a top 5-10 pick in an NHL prospect because you expect it to perform better than a 10-15th overall pick. These players valuations are determined by everything they've done on the ice up to draft day. Ken Holland picked Zadina thinking he was getting a top 5 talent at 6th overall. Lots of people thought that. And maybe he will be. But it's hard not to think of the stock that dropped 30% in three months when thinking about a prospect who's "stock dropped" on draft day. Zadina, Veleno, Mantha. None of them have been as good as what we thought we were getting because their valuations were flawed in the first place.

 

its wise to buy stocks when they dip if you think there going to rise again. buy low sell high. Im sure Holland believed he was getting great value with Zadina at 6. So far comparative to players picked around him he has and maybe that stock continues to rise. Zadinas stock didnt really fall other players stock inexplicably rose because of position.

I never liked Mantha as much as the rest of the fan base but its hard to argue he wasnt worth the 20oa pick. I think the same will be true of Zadina at 6oa and Veleno at 30oa.

[bIueadams 776]

9 minutes ago, redw1ngs said:

I think around 23yo is a reasonable cutoff but as we know all to well that varies from player to player. For the record I was in agreement with you on Svech. The org gave up on him to early imo. It is kind of strange that you think the team gave up on Svech to early but its not to early to give up on Zadina now. Unless you think gp is the only factor to consider and age doesnt matter.

Their is a MAJOR contextual difference between Svech v. Zadina though.

Svech got 20 games under his belt playing a measly 10-11 minutes a night on the 4th line. Then the team put him on the taxi squad, gave him the same limited games and time at the end of the season, and released him.

Zadina got top6 minutes and regular PP time right out the gate, and we're now in his 3rd season of this assignment.

One got all the opportunities and is disappointing. The other got seemingly no opportunity so it's hard to fault him for being disappointing.

 

 

[kipwinger 8,520]

 

Sodorblom: 2G

Edvinsson: 2A

[bIueadams 776]

15 minutes ago, redw1ngs said:

its wise to buy stocks when they dip if you think there going to rise again. buy low sell high. Im sure Holland believed he was getting great value with Zadina at 6. So far comparative to players picked around him he has and maybe that stock continues to rise. Zadinas stock didnt really fall other players stock inexplicably rose because of position.

I never liked Mantha as much as the rest of the fan base but its hard to argue he wasnt worth the 20oa pick. I think the same will be true of Zadina at 6oa and Veleno at 30oa.

We all did.

If you could go back in time and tell me "you'll be getting a hard working middle 6 winger with your 6th overall" I would have told Holland to trade the pick and sign Carl Hagelin.

1 minute ago, kipwinger said:

 

Sodorblom: 2G

Edvinsson: 2A

Nice. That was the goalies screw up though. Dunno what he was thinking sliding that far outta the net, but maybe he just couldn't stop himself.

Soderblom is fersure bigger than Franzen with softer mitts though

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

3 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

 

Sodorblom: 2G

Edvinsson: 2A

First goal pretty good too

 

 

[kipwinger 8,520]

I'm getting progressively more juiced about this guy. Like, these aren't just "he's big and playing against 17 year old goals". He's a very consistent goal scoring threat against the best professional teams in Europe. He's the real deal.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

10 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I'm getting progressively more juiced about this guy. Like, these aren't just "he's big and playing against 17 year old goals". He's a very consistent goal scoring threat against the best professional teams in Europe. He's the real deal.

His skating isn't as bad as previously advertised and his hands are really good for a guy his size. 

[redw1ngs 149]

27 minutes ago, bIueadams said:

Their is a MAJOR contextual difference between Svech v. Zadina though.

Svech got 20 games under his belt playing a measly 10-11 minutes a night on the 4th line. Then the team put him on the taxi squad, gave him the same limited games and time at the end of the season, and released him.

Zadina got top6 minutes and regular PP time right out the gate, and we're now in his 3rd season of this assignment.

One got all the opportunities and is disappointing. The other got seemingly no opportunity so it's hard to fault him for being disappointing.

 

 

Disappointing who though? Im new here so I dont really know what the few regulars here think of Zadina but I do know that most of the Twitter fan base is quite happy with his play so far. It also seems like the coach and gm are happy with him.

Edited November 23, 2021 by redw1ngs

[kipwinger 8,520]

3 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

His skating isn't as bad as previously advertised and his hands are really good for a guy his size. 

He scores in a lot of different ways too. I've seen him bury one timers, jam in rebounds, or dangle through defenders. Guys that can score in a lot of different ways usually have more success.

[bIueadams 776]

3 minutes ago, redw1ngs said:

Disappointing who though? Im new here so I dont really know what the few regulars here think of Zadina but I do know that most of the Twitter fan base is quite happy with his play so far.

Myself and @mackel. The local small but vocal minority of Zadina haters. Although the lack of patience with Zadina seems to be growing amongst others this year as well. At least here and on HF boards. I don't follow twitter to closely.

You tell me. What are twitter folks pointing at? Fancy stats? If we took the names off the backs of the sweaters I don't think anyone would speak highly of that #11 guy out there who can barely shoot and doesn't score.

[bIueadams 776]

 

 

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

2 hours ago, kipwinger said:

 

Sodorblom: 2G

Edvinsson: 2A

Foreshadowing?

[_SP_ 129]

19 hours ago, bIueadams said:

I gave up on him being a serious impact player in 2018 when he was with Grand Rapids. I just didn't see anything to make me think he was any good. Granted he was very young on that team, but usually with a young #6 overall pick you're going to see some very raw high level skill shine through and some flashes of brilliance now and then. Saw none of that.

Do me a favor and next game JUST watch Zadina. Watch his decision making, execution, time away from the puck, in the D zone, neutral, and Ozone, the whole 9. Lemme know what you think.

IMO the most standout feature to his game is his stick lift. His ability to strip the puck is hard to miss. His hands are quick and precise. If you're in his reach or he can close the gap, he's getting that puck. Not quite Datsyukian, but he certainly does this better than anyone on the team IMO.

He's also hard worker and back checks hard. You absolutely cannot say this is a lazy player.

So why isn't he a defensive dynamo? Because his anticipation of the play is mediocre at best. He has the defensive chops to be a real force, but his brain isn't taking his feet to where he can utilize these tools properly. Datsyuk was able to put his tool box to work because he could read the attacking play before the attackers even knew what the play was. Zadina doesn't have that chess brain.

Zadina should be leading our forward group in takeaways with his skill set, but the exact opposite is happening. He has the worst give-away to take-away ration among all of our forwards. 13 giveaways and only 4 takeaways.

Now, before you say it, yes, those giveaways numbers are inflated... They're inflated by how many shots he takes that don't even go near the net. He should be called the end board assassin.

This takes us to his offense: The skill set is not there. He has a decently hard shot, but he seems to have no idea how to use or direct it. It's bad enough that he and every scout on the Red Wings should be embarrassed that they ever billed him as goal scorer.

"Driving the offense" lol sorry but I have to laugh at this. The kid is a primo passenger. He should be in the back of the Wings mini van in a childs car seat. He doesn't get breakaways, he doesn't create rush attempts, he doesn't draw penalties. He's a perimeter player that's easily knocked off the puck. He is decent in the cycle when the zone is spread and set up, his passes are crisp, but - back to his similar problem on defense - he doesn't anticipate the game at a high enough level to make any magic happen with his passing. Which is why he is sitting on 4 total assists right now, all of them secondary assists.

And to be fair, he does try to drive the offense sometimes... it just mostly ends in embarrassment when his poorly selected shot is blocked or it flies 2 ft wide of the net.

These are the same complaints and praises of him I had in 2018 (check post history of "Christopher Reeves Legs" here and on HF boards). HF boards lit me up for this evaluation back then, with their argument being "he's just young! he's just young!". Guess what? My nephew is just young too. Doesn't mean he has the skills to be a top flight NHLer one day.... youth potential means nothing if you can't at least glimpse that potential in a player.

And most concerning is I've seen very little progress from Zadina over the last 3 years. He's going to need an A+ center to feed him easy gifts all game long. Otherwise we have a very average hardworking 3rd line winger on our hands.

If you're okay with that result, great. But that's extremely disappointing for a former #6 overall picked ranked in the top3 IMO.

Should have packaged him in a trade before the 2020 season started.

 

I still have hope for him. But I saw a lot of these things in the pre-season game against Chicago (the only game I've attended this season). He just doesn't process the game as quickly as someone like Raymond. It was night and day.

I don't know how you work on that as a developmental skill. It seems innate, no? Either you've got it or you don't. I don't know that it is a learned trait. And if it isn't, he will never reach his physical potential. 

As you said, not what you want from #6 Overall.

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

12 minutes ago, _SP_ said:

I still have hope for him. But I saw a lot of these things in the pre-season game against Chicago (the only game I've attended this season). He just doesn't process the game as quickly as someone like Raymond. It was night and day.

I don't know how you work on that as a developmental skill. It seems innate, no? Either you've got it or you don't. I don't know that it is a learned trait. And if it isn't, he will never reach his physical potential. 

As you said, not what you want from #6 Overall.

You are wrong.  He plays and processes a DIFFERENT game.  Raymond has free reign out on the ice and can do what he wants because Larkin and Bert will cover for him if he makes mistakes.  Zadina is trying to play a game where he is never out of position.  That LOOKS like he's not processing the play correctly, but it actually is just him covering any potential mistakes instead of playing carelessly.  I am all for Zadina scoring 40 pts a year and playing great defense.

[marcaractac 3,962]

10 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

You are wrong.  He plays and processes a DIFFERENT game.  Raymond has free reign out on the ice and can do what he wants because Larkin and Bert will cover for him if he makes mistakes.  Zadina is trying to play a game where he is never out of position.  That LOOKS like he's not processing the play correctly, but it actually is just him covering any potential mistakes instead of playing carelessly.  I am all for Zadina scoring 40 pts a year and playing great defense.

BuT tHaT's NoT wHaT wE wAnT wItH 6OA