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Potential playoff chances projection **Mod Warning Post #10**


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#1 Richdg

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 07:38 PM

Ok, not real just predicted. Most people are talking 55+ points to make the playoffs this year. As of today the RW are on pace for 50 points or so. We have 11 road games left and 8 home games. We are 9-8 at home which is 53% wpct. mening we win 4.25 games. lets say we get 9 points out of those games. 33-current total plus 9 is 42 points. On the road we are only winning 38.5% of our games. That is 8.47 points out of 22 possible. 42 + 8.47 is 50 or 51 if you are feeling lucky. 51 of course is below the 55 most talk about teams needing to make it.

One more little thing, 5 of the teams behind us in points today have 1 or more games in hand.



#2 amato

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:24 PM

Ok, not real just predicted. Most people are talking 55+ points to make the playoffs this year. As of today the RW are on pace for 50 points or so. We have 11 road games left and 8 home games. We are 9-8 at home which is 53% wpct. mening we win 4.25 games. lets say we get 9 points out of those games. 33-current total plus 9 is 42 points. On the road we are only winning 38.5% of our games. That is 8.47 points out of 22 possible. 42 + 8.47 is 50 or 51 if you are feeling lucky. 51 of course is below the 55 most talk about teams needing to make it.
One more little thing, 5 of the teams behind us in points today have 1 or more games in hand.


That being the case, if we're only a few points from making the playoffs at this pace I'm sure the team knows it and near the end of the year we'll start to see guys like Pav, Z, filp, and others step up and make sure we get those points.. resulting in hot streaks. And we all kno being on hot streaks heading into playoffs is huge.

Then again, I could be wrong. I don't know. But that's just my take on it.

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#3 MabusIncarnate

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:29 PM

I hate the entire "On Pace" argument when it comes to stuff like this.. we could go on a 10 game tear and shoot up the standings, we could go on a losing streak. Depends on who we are playing, how their goalie is playing, how much the opposing team is scoring and what kind of game Howard is bringing to the ice. Point being who the hell knows where we are going to sit once playoffs start, i'm in favor of just watching how the games unfold instead of picking apart useless stats and predicting our future. 

 

Fact: anything can happen in the remainder of the season. That's all we know.


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#4 MasterPavel

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:36 PM

A better way to predict on how many points we will end with would be to give us 2 for every game we should lose, and 0 for the games we should win.

#5 SDavis35

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:48 PM

Ok, not real just predicted. Most people are talking 55+ points to make the playoffs this year. As of today the RW are on pace for 50 points or so. We have 11 road games left and 8 home games. We are 9-8 at home which is 53% wpct. mening we win 4.25 games. lets say we get 9 points out of those games. 33-current total plus 9 is 42 points. On the road we are only winning 38.5% of our games. That is 8.47 points out of 22 possible. 42 + 8.47 is 50 or 51 if you are feeling lucky. 51 of course is below the 55 most talk about teams needing to make it.

One more little thing, 5 of the teams behind us in points today have 1 or more games in hand.

You do things your way, I'll do them mine.

 

We are on pace to finish with 53 points. (Currently 62.5% through the season, using the reciprocal we get 1.6 x 33pts = 52.8) If we just need to win an extra game somewhere, I don't see that as impossible. We sit in 7th with a 3pt separation between us and 9th (4 pts over anyone who has a game in hand). My expectation contrary to your assumed 55, is that 52 points will be the line between in and out. The other thing is, we have been playing better defensively lately which leads me to believe that if any of our scorers get hot, or if we find a way to score more than 2 goals/game... we will be moving up in the standings not down. Also, we've scored on the PP in each of our past 3 road games, something that hadn't happened earlier in the season. I think we will make the playoffs, but what we do in the playoffs is going to be determined by Zetterberg, Howard, Datsyuk and the rest of the team. 



#6 Richdg

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:59 PM

You do things your way, I'll do them mine.

 

We are on pace to finish with 53 points. (Currently 62.5% through the season, using the reciprocal we get 1.6 x 33pts = 52.8) If we just need to win an extra game somewhere, I don't see that as impossible. We sit in 7th with a 3pt separation between us and 9th (4 pts over anyone who has a game in hand). My expectation contrary to your assumed 55, is that 52 points will be the line between in and out. The other thing is, we have been playing better defensively lately which leads me to believe that if any of our scorers get hot, or if we find a way to score more than 2 goals/game... we will be moving up in the standings not down. Also, we've scored on the PP in each of our past 3 road games, something that hadn't happened earlier in the season. I think we will make the playoffs, but what we do in the playoffs is going to be determined by Zetterberg, Howard, Datsyuk and the rest of the team. 

Th problem with your line of thinking is, it doesnt take in account of the road vs home difference. Every team has one. The first 24 games this year was the weakest part of our schedule. More home games than road games, lower wpct as well.

Now I fully understand, and hope that we find a little luck and run off a 8 of 10 streak somewhere along the line. But that would also require some more O and better overall play, that to date we haven't seen yet. But that is why we actually play the games on the ice, and not on paper or a forum.



#7 stillwater

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 09:17 PM

Th problem with your line of thinking is, it doesnt take in account of the road vs home difference. Every team has one.

 

Though every team has a "road vs home difference", there's nothing to prove that the "difference" will stay in place over the course of an entire season, or in this case ... even a shortened season. Your point makes no sense.

 

For instance, even though the Wings had no PPG's on the road in their first 30 some chances ... you couldn't make a valid conclusion that they'd never score a PPG on the road all season.

 

Past play is somewhat predictive of future play, but it's impossible to draw absolute conclusions. Look at Columbus. Who could have predicted that they could go 11 or 12 games without a loss?  ... but they have.


Edited by stillwater, 21 March 2013 - 09:18 PM.


#8 Buppy

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 09:26 PM

Th problem with your line of thinking is, it doesnt take in account of the road vs home difference. Every team has one. The first 24 games this year was the weakest part of our schedule. More home games than road games, lower wpct as well.

Now I fully understand, and hope that we find a little luck and run off a 8 of 10 streak somewhere along the line. But that would also require some more O and better overall play, that to date we haven't seen yet. But that is why we actually play the games on the ice, and not on paper or a forum.

And the problem with your line of thinking is you're basing it off an estimated 55 point threshhold. (You also failed to consider the loser points, but that's a marginal difference.)

 

We're actually on pace for 51.8 points. Of the seven teams currently out of the playoffs, none of them is on pace for even 49 points.

 

While we may need to be better than we have been, so does everyone else.



#9 Crymson

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 09:57 PM

I think you should have stopped after "doom and gloom." Support the team, enjoy the ride, and hope for the best.



#10 haroldsnepsts

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:04 PM

The OP posted a mathematical example on the likelihood of making the playoffs. 

 

If you want to discuss the topic, great.  If you don't like the topic, don't post in the thread.  Pretty simple.

 

I've deleted posts.  Any further personal attacks will result in suspension. 



#11 WINGS & FLOW

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:30 PM

Not really sure the point of this thread is........but heres a site for all you number crunchers 

 

 

http://www.sportsclu...al/Detroit.html



#12 Barrie

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:33 PM

Ah, no worries here, we'll make the playoffs. Despite all the road games left, we seem to be playing well on the road lately.


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#13 wingedominance13

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 08:08 AM

This has to be a Richdog thread because they all end in "...."



#14 toby91_ca

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 08:16 AM

There is a couple serious flaws in your predictions.  1) they are on pace for 53pts I think, not 50 and 2) compare what they are on pace for to some made up prediction of 55pts seems odd.  If you do that and project all the other teams, there will be less than 16 teams making the playoffs.

 

If you want to keep it real simple, if you project everyone now to the end of the year, looks like they finish in 8th.  So, there is a real risk of not making the playoffs, then again, it's really only the top 2 teams in the conference that will be out of reach as well.  #3 to #12 in the conference are separated by only 6pts.



#15 kipwinger

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 08:27 AM

Th problem with your line of thinking is, it doesnt take in account of the road vs home difference. Every team has one. The first 24 games this year was the weakest part of our schedule. More home games than road games, lower wpct as well.

Now I fully understand, and hope that we find a little luck and run off a 8 of 10 streak somewhere along the line. But that would also require some more O and better overall play, that to date we haven't seen yet. But that is why we actually play the games on the ice, and not on paper or a forum.

 

You can't use the first 24 games as any indication of this team considering all of the injuries.  Our win percentage during that period would likely have been MUCH higher had that not been the case.  When doing any sort of statistical analysis you have to be very careful that your baseline stats are actually representative before going any further. 

 

If a team starts out under performing for any number of reasons, and then you extrapolate from there you're likely to end up with an even more skewed result.  For example, last year Zetterberg started out very slowly.  If, during that period, you projected his season totals they would fall far short of what's expected.  However, once he got over his funk he produced like he's capable, he finished the season where you'd expect (top ten or fifteen in total points).  The same is true for a team, and this season our team under performed for quite a while to begin with.  But again, that's not representative. 


GMRwings:  "Well, in other civilized countries, 16 years old isn't considered underage.  For instance, I believe the age of consent is 16 in Canada.  There's some US states where it's 16 as well.  

 

Get off the high horse.  Not like she was 10."

 

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#16 Shaman

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 11:28 AM

You can't use the first 24 games as any indication of this team considering all of the injuries.  Our win percentage during that period would likely have been MUCH higher had that not been the case.  When doing any sort of statistical analysis you have to be very careful that your baseline stats are actually representative before going any further. 

 

If a team starts out under performing for any number of reasons, and then you extrapolate from there you're likely to end up with an even more skewed result.  For example, last year Zetterberg started out very slowly.  If, during that period, you projected his season totals they would fall far short of what's expected.  However, once he got over his funk he produced like he's capable, he finished the season where you'd expect (top ten or fifteen in total points).  The same is true for a team, and this season our team under performed for quite a while to begin with.  But again, that's not representative. 

I actually disagree, this team healthy (IE with Sammuelson, Calo and Bertuzzi) is worse on paper than the one with Lashoff, Andersson, Nyquist and Tatar, who are either over performing given their roles and skill sets (Lashoff and Andersson), or giving 100% in a role a boneheaded coach gives them (Tatar), or just giving the defense something more than logo hunting to think about (Nyquist). With the number of road games left, the wings anemic road special teams play, and the fact when Helm and Sammy come back to the line up, neither will be worth as much as they would be at 100%, I don't see how the Wings will surge as you believe they will. Also, given where they are in relation to more talented teams, I wouldn't say Detroit given the state of their team, and the management decisions are under performing.


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#17 puckbags

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 11:38 AM

I think we will win 34 games in a row and win the cup. Only stat I care about.


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LGW after 1 loss is irrational, after a few in a row it becomes quite comical, 22 playoff appearances in a row and 4 cups in that time and still going strong. Relaxxxxx !!
 


#18 chrisdetroit

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 11:48 AM

That is totaly conjecture.  Nobody knows how many points it will take to get in. They are guessing based on previous years.  But this year is NOT like previous years.  Nobody picked Chicago and Anaheim to have the sucess that they are having.  And 48 games is a small sample size.  After 40 or so games, the Wings lead the league in points last year, but if you had extrapolated that over 82 games, your results would have been completely wrong.

 

You can't take a small sample like 30 games, then project that winning percentage over the last 18 games and come up with anything that is statistically significant.

 

The teams that are currently .500 or below with big negaitve GF-GA are the ones that are in trouble.  Edmonton, Calgary, Colorado, Nashville, Columbus, Dallas (1 point over .500) and Phoenix.  Those are the 7 non-playoff teams.  All .500 or below and all with a -6 or worse GF-GA.

 

 



They don't have to surge.  If they and everybody else wins at the same rate, they are in. 

 

 

I actually disagree, this team healthy (IE with Sammuelson, Calo and Bertuzzi) is worse on paper than the one with Lashoff, Andersson, Nyquist and Tatar, who are either over performing given their roles and skill sets (Lashoff and Andersson), or giving 100% in a role a boneheaded coach gives them (Tatar), or just giving the defense something more than logo hunting to think about (Nyquist). With the number of road games left, the wings anemic road special teams play, and the fact when Helm and Sammy come back to the line up, neither will be worth as much as they would be at 100%, I don't see how the Wings will surge as you believe they will. Also, given where they are in relation to more talented teams, I wouldn't say Detroit given the state of their team, and the management decisions are under performing.


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#19 kipwinger

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 11:48 AM

I actually disagree, this team healthy (IE with Sammuelson, Calo and Bertuzzi) is worse on paper than the one with Lashoff, Andersson, Nyquist and Tatar, who are either over performing given their roles and skill sets (Lashoff and Andersson), or giving 100% in a role a boneheaded coach gives them (Tatar), or just giving the defense something more than logo hunting to think about (Nyquist). With the number of road games left, the wings anemic road special teams play, and the fact when Helm and Sammy come back to the line up, neither will be worth as much as they would be at 100%, I don't see how the Wings will surge as you believe they will. Also, given where they are in relation to more talented teams, I wouldn't say Detroit given the state of their team, and the management decisions are under performing.

 

That's your problem right there, it's not just the addition of Sammy, Cola, and Bert.  It's the addition of those guys plus Helm.  AND, it's a team in which Flip, Ericsson, Kindl, Smith, didn't all miss significant time with injuries as well. 

 

None of Nyquist, Tatar, or Andersson have a game winning goal, and only 3 of their combined 8 goals came in wins.  While they've all played good, none of them has been a difference maker thus far.  So I'll amend my statement and say that having Helm, Bertuzzi, and Sammy in the lineup doesn't guarantee that we'd have done better, but it does mean that we probably couldn't have done worse.  Add to this the fact that all three of them would have made their respective lines much better, Helm obviously, and Bert and Sammy would certainly produce more with Datsyuk than Cleary and Abby have.  Finally, these numbers don't even take into account how many more games we likely would have made more competitive with fewer defensive injuries.  As well as he's played, Lashoff on the top pairing is much worse than Ericsson (who missed time) and as we've seen, Smith and Kindl in the lineup makes the team better than it is without them. 

 

So again, our early season performance is not indicative of the team overall, and therefore shouldn't be used as a baseline for projections. 


Edited by kipwinger, 22 March 2013 - 12:04 PM.

GMRwings:  "Well, in other civilized countries, 16 years old isn't considered underage.  For instance, I believe the age of consent is 16 in Canada.  There's some US states where it's 16 as well.  

 

Get off the high horse.  Not like she was 10."

 

"Some girls are 17 even though they look 25."

 

 


#20 matt198913

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 04:59 PM

So if the red wings score the third goal each game durring the 2nd period and the temperature is just under 50 degrees on a Wednesday and the date is a historic red wing number, then they will finish in 6th place. That is all
BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





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