2024 TDL Thread

[town123 235]

Canadiens trade F Monahan to Jets for a first-rounder and a conditional pick

 

[kipwinger 8,765]

Prices are pretty high at the moment. 1st for Monahan is absolutely insane. If these are the going rates we should be looking to trade any non-essential parts of the team (i.e. Gostisbehere, Fabbri, Veleno).

[LeftWinger 5,152]

Still haven't seen any TSN guy report the Monahan deal. I've been checking X.

Edit: I see it on capfriendly

Edited February 2, 2024 by LeftWinger

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

5 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Prices are pretty high at the moment. 1st for Monahan is absolutely insane. If these are the going rates we should be looking to trade any non-essential parts of the team (i.e. Gostisbehere, Fabbri, Veleno).

Meh. Teams always overpay for veteran centers and physical D men. Yguy has no one like that who would also be considered non essential 

[kipwinger 8,765]

36 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Meh. Teams always overpay for veteran centers and physical D men. Yguy has no one like that who would also be considered non essential 

You don’t think the prices are higher than usual? Monahan just got traded for nearly the same return that Chychrun did a year ago.

[Scott R Lucidi 675]

9 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Prices are pretty high at the moment. 1st for Monahan is absolutely insane. If these are the going rates we should be looking to trade any non-essential parts of the team (i.e. Gostisbehere, Fabbri, Veleno).

i like veleno

[kipwinger 8,765]

1 minute ago, Scott R Lucidi said:

i like veleno

I do too, I was probably being overzealous making the point that I'd be looking to move superfluous players if these trade returns stay high.

[Scott R Lucidi 675]

7 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I do too, I was probably being overzealous making the point that I'd be looking to move superfluous players if these trade returns stay high.

roger

[Axl Foley 334]

13 hours ago, town123 said:

Canadiens trade F Monahan to Jets for a first-rounder and a conditional pick

 

Thank you for not requiring my reading glasses.

[town123 235]

8 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

Thank you for not requiring my reading glasses.

Thank you for not calling me a highly regarded font fugger.

 

[Scott R Lucidi 675]

1 hour ago, town123 said:

Thank you for not calling me a highly regarded font fugger.

 

lulz

[kipwinger 8,765]

On 2/1/2024 at 9:25 PM, Troy McClure said:

As of today money puck gives us exactly 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Our chances have definitely improved, but it's still borderline, and we have to maintain this pace if we want to get there. Adding at the TDL will help, but boy it would suck to add and miss...

 

I'm genuinely not calling you out here, and I'm just using your post as a jumping off point for my comment. So with that said, here goes: I was listening to the Winged Wheel Pod on a road trip today and they kept referencing our playoff odds (as you've done here) and I recalled that just a few short weeks ago our odds were something like 13%. Now we're at >50% with exactly the same team in exactly the same division, conference, and league. My point is, at what point do these types of observations by the sports media cease to have any function? How helpful is a predictive tool that can change so wildly from week to week? This is my big issue with analytical modeling in general. How useful is a model that will tell you "Colorado will make the playoffs again" and not "Vancouver is better than you all think they are"? I'm starting to get the feeling that these folks have jumped the shark a bit.

[Dabura 12,232]

48 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I'm genuinely not calling you out here, and I'm just using your post as a jumping off point for my comment. So with that said, here goes: I was listening to the Winged Wheel Pod on a road trip today and they kept referencing our playoff odds (as you've done here) and I recalled that just a few short weeks ago our odds were something like 13%. Now we're at >50% with exactly the same team in exactly the same division, conference, and league. My point is, at what point do these types of observations by the sports media cease to have any function? How helpful is a predictive tool that can change so wildly from week to week? This is my big issue with analytical modeling in general. How useful is a model that will tell you "Colorado will make the playoffs again" and not "Vancouver is better than you all think they are"? I'm starting to get the feeling that these folks have jumped the shark a bit.

Fancy stats are pretty bulls***, if we're being honest. One day we decided we were going to accept a set of values pushed by nerds who got pushed into lockers in high school and it's since grown into a masturbatory mystery cult. I've found value in the stats in the past, sure - but at this point I'm way past done with it. That may not be a popular stance, but idc.

Moneypuck is a great example of how stupid it's all become. I say that having watched it very closely over the past month. It's a crock.

Edited February 5, 2024 by Dabura

[kipwinger 8,765]

10 hours ago, Dabura said:

Fancy stats are pretty bulls***, if we're being honest. One day we decided we were going to accept a set of values pushed by nerds who got pushed into lockers in high school and it's since grown into a masturbatory mystery cult. I've found value in the stats in the past, sure - but at this point I'm way past done with it. That may not be a popular stance, but idc.

Moneypuck is a great example of how stupid it's all become. I say that having watched it very closely over the past month. It's a crock.

Agreed. There's a new article today by The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn predicting the Eastern Conference playoff odds. He's got Detroit at 35%, Toronto at 96%, and Tampa at 87%, and Pittsburgh (!!!!) at 75%. The Penguins are sitting below .500 while we're beating the top teams in the league on a nightly basis, but they're probably gonna make it because...reasons?

[Scott R Lucidi 675]

15 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Agreed. There's a new article today by The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn predicting the Eastern Conference playoff odds. He's got Detroit at 35%, Toronto at 96%, and Tampa at 87%, and Pittsburgh (!!!!) at 75%. The Penguins are sitting below .500 while we're beating the top teams in the league on a nightly basis, but they're probably gonna make it because...reasons?

i like that we hsve already started playing playoff hockey.  i didnt like yearlong playoff hockey under babcock because i thought our team was good enough not to need that.  But this team needs that.

[Troy McClure 347]

I concure with you both.

We are more idea guys. Men of vision. 

Odds? Points? Leave that to accounting. 

I want to know your thoughts on Seiders swagger. Will it be enough to attract the Mankos this offseason? Is it true swagger if he refuses to wreck shop? Perhaps he is only leaving shops open until playoffs?

[Troy McClure 347]

18 minutes ago, Scott R Lucidi said:

i like that we hsve already started playing playoff hockey.  i didnt like yearlong playoff hockey under babcock because i thought our team was good enough not to need that.  But this team needs that.

What Babcock didnt understand was respect. Respect the process, but also respect the game. Cant respect the game if you dont respect the players playing the game. And if you give respect, you get respect. Thats called the economy of respect. But you cant be giving respect without first respecting yourself. Thats called self respect. 

Bidness of hockey 101

[kipwinger 8,765]

Here's what Seider needs...Noah Hanifin on the 2nd pair. I've made up my mind on this. F*ck Chychrun. Why do we need Hanifin? Because he's basically exactly like Seider. He plays REALLY tough minutes against top competition for 20+ minutes a night and doesn't get caved. If you have a guy like that on each of your top two pairs then both of them get a break and you've always got someone on the ice that can defend.

Walman-Seider

Hanifin-Chiarot

Maatta-Petry

Holl

 

Trade Gostisbehere. Let Seider QB the top powerplay unit and Walman or Petry can QB the 2nd unit.

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 142]

What would Hanifin (or Chychrun) realistically cost? Youd have to assume both teams would want a roster defenseman highend prospect and high pick would they not? I'm sure the ask would be Edvinsson who should be off limits in any trade.

[Troy McClure 347]

1 minute ago, stephen-gregory-yzerman said:

What would Hanifin (or Chychrun) realistically cost? Youd have to assume both teams would want a roster defenseman highend prospect and high pick would they not? I'm sure the ask would be Edvinsson who should be off limits in any trade.

I'll give them: Maata, Wallinder, 1st

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 142]

1 minute ago, Troy McClure said:

I'll give them: Maata, Wallinder, 1st

Id do that but not sure itd be enough.

[kipwinger 8,765]

Nobody ever trades their top organizational prospects so you'd have to think Edvinsson, ASP, Cossa and Danielson/Kasper would be off the table. I'd imagine you're looking at some combination of Berggren, Johansson/Mazur, 1st, and (maybe) other picks.

Edit: To make the cap work there might be cap dumps thrown in but I'm only listing the assets of value going back.

Edited February 5, 2024 by kipwinger

[LeftWinger 5,152]

---

AGE: 25
CAP HIT: $4.6M

6. Jakob Chychrun, LD - Ottawa Senators

It wouldn’t be a trade deadline without Chychrun on the Trade Watch List. Only now, he’s in Ottawa. Sens GM Steve Staios tried to calm the public waters, but as TFP’s David Pagnotta reported on Jan. 15, the Senators are listening and willing to consider trading him.

TEAMS REPORTEDLY LINKED:

Washington, Calgary, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Detroit

AGE: 29
CAP HIT: $3.65M

13. Frank Vatrano, RW - Anaheim Ducks

Vatrano will draw interest from contenders looking for more goal-scoring. He is on pace for a career-year offensively and is signed through the 2024-25 campaign. His price tag will be high and the Ducks are in no rush to move him, but teams will continue to call.

TEAMS REPORTEDLY LINKED:

Detroit, NY Islanders

AGE: 23
CAP HIT: $925,000

24. Jonatan Berggren, LW - Detroit Red Wings

As TFP’s David Pagnotta first reported in early-December, the Red Wings have been dangling Berggren as trade bait and seem willing to move him in the right deal. His entry-level contract expires after this season.

TEAMS REPORTEDLY LINKED:

Montreal, Ottawa

https://www.thefourthperiod.com/trade-watch-list-2024

 

I have a feeling there is going to be a Berggren - Chychrun trade package coming up. As long as Detroit is not on his 10-team no-trade list that is! I am sure he would welcome a trade to Detroit though!

What are your packages? We'd be giving them needed cap relief too, so that can be considered. BUT, will Ottawa's new GM allow another Yzerman fleecing? Does it work 1 for 1? Does Yzerman throw in a 2nd or 3rd round pick? Another player?

Edited February 5, 2024 by LeftWinger

[kipwinger 8,765]

I REALLY don't like the idea of Chychrun. He's just Chiarot 2.0. We need somone that can defend at a high level for 18-20 minutes a night.

[mackel 767]

26 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Nobody ever trades their top organizational prospects so you'd have to think Edvinsson, ASP, Cossa and Danielson/Kasper would be off the table. I'd imagine you're looking at some combination of Berggren, Johansson/Mazur, 1st, and (maybe) other picks.

Edit: To make the cap work there might be cap dumps thrown in but I'm only listing the assets of value going back.

I think to land Hanafin you trade:

Berggren, Matta, 2nd, and one middling D prospect Bium, MacIsaac, etc

Maybe the pick is a 1st with a 3rd coming back from Calgary.