Buppy

Not to break up the Stvie love-fest, but he really hasn't done anything yet.

Ellis is a solid move I think, not convinced the other two are all that great. Not bad moves, but not great either. A 4 year deal for St.Louis is a bit risky, but it is a decent price and he's not showing real signs of declining. Meszaros isn't a terrible player, and his contract wasn't that bad. And with the weak FA crop this year, it won't be easy to replace him.

He still has too much work to do to make any judgement yet.

No one is saying that, but you pointed out yourself how many gems we've found. That 8.7% may be only a little better than the average, but it doesn't account for the quality of the games played, just quantity. My point was never to say any 7th rounder will be a superstar, simply you shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the possibility.

My original response was to someone questioning our 7th round pick, as if we should have targetted someone different. As if we had any likely shot of filling some need or there were other players out there with a better chance of succeeding in the NHL. I was pointing out with a little pithy exaggeration that it was a 7th round pick, and there is only a small chance that said player will ever get a sniff of the NHL.

My follow-up analysis confirms that. Moreover, it goes a ways towards debunking the myth that our late round picks have any abnormal tendency toward success. The quality of our late successes may or may not be better than average. I don't feel like doing that much research. But it's still only about a 1 in 10 chance for a 4th round or later pick to really make the NHL. Pretty much right on league average.

Forbort and Doughty will be a hell of a pair in a few years.

Nah, we'll just bring back Jiri clucking Hudler, he'll bring us back to Stanley! How many back injuries has Zetterberg had? How many injuries has Franzen and Kronwall had? It's ok to throw all of our cash at them, but its not cool to trade for 80-100 point producer with LESS injured seasons than Hank and Mule, becuase Hudler can get 50 points? I may have very limited medical knowledge, but lets give $6M to a man with a bad back, yes Zetterberg, that makes lots of sense.  Holland rolled the dice on Zetterberg staying healthy (which failed last season) so why not roll the dice on a 100 point player?


Here's the Slappies Lines

Hudler - Hudler - Hudler
Hudler - Hudler - Hudler
Hudler - Hudler - Hudler
Hudler - Hudler - Hudler
Hudler

He's entering the point in his career whree his production will probably start to decline. He makes more than a million more than Hudler, that money would have to come from somewhere. He doesn't fill a real need for this team. At best he would generate slightly more offense than Hudler. He's much older and would thus need to be replaced sooner. We don't really want another player under contract until he's 40.

Even if you don't factor in the injury, it's not that promising of a trade. Savard would not make us a real powerhouse/Cup favorite. Filppula would make a lot more sense, but even then it doesn't make us that much better. If we were to trade Flip or Happy, especially if it meant taking on more cap, it would have to be for someone who could score 30-35+ goals to make any sense.

The wings aren't hurting for 4-6 spot forwards or 3/4 Dmen, we need someone who will step up when Dats and Z start to fade. We don't have a great player in the system that we can all look to and say 'this is our blue chip forward prospect' so I still believe thats what the wings need to look for, even if there is a chance they get burned. You don't win cups without some risk.

We don't have anyone that looks capable of filling the void left by Nick and Rafi either, and both of them are older than Pav and Hank.

He was playing on the 3rd line in that regular season. He still put up 40 points. In the postseason, he was one of the best players on the team. He had 15 points and his +/- was absurdly high (+17).

Of course, these are things that people like you will continually omit in argument; you know they'll weaken your case, and so instead of admitting that you have a weak argument, you simply don't include important info and hope that nobody else will either. Good work.

3rd line?

Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hossa, Franzen. 1:45/game on the PP. Even playing on the third line was with players like Flip, Hudler, and Sammy.

He had a poor year. He was not fighting through injuries all season. He was not stuck with poor linemates. He just had a poor season (in relation to what we were hoping to get from him). For the record, I'm not saying he's a poor player, or that we should get rid of him if we could. I said he was not fighting injuries 2 years ago, and still had a bad year. Those are facts. I said he, or someone else, will get stuck on the third line and their production will suffer for it. (Something you apparently agree with from your statement about Cleary... even if it wasn't accurate.)

Of course, these are things that people like you continually omit. You make emotional statements without any factual foundation or research to support your arguments. Rather than admitting you have a weak argument, you don't bother to check if you even have an argument, nor try to understand what it is you're arguing against. Good work.

Kotalik makes 3 mil less points then Bert last year

Chris Neil 2 Mil

Jarko Ruttu the same as Bert last year

Reinprecht 2 mil, less points then Bert last year

Clutterbuck 1.4 mil

Steve Bernier 2 mil

Kris Kunitz makes almost 4 mil.

All these guys put up less points then Bert last year but have similar or much higher contracts. Bert at 1.5 is a huge bargain. Guys like CLutterbuck  Mayers and Ruutu making pretty much the same as Bert kinda shows that market value for guys like that is right around there. I think its fair to say Bert market value is higher then guys like this.

Again, it's not so much about Bert being worth the money so much as we didn't need him. He adds next to nothing to this team. Half the guys you're comparing him to offer much more than just scoring, and some are significantly younger. I would much rather have Clutterbuck than Bert, and he'll earn almost 600k less than Bert this year. Neil also adds much more, and is still a few years younger (though I wouldn't really want him at his price either). I'd probably take Ruutu @ 1.3 over Bert too, though I'd prefer someone younger and cheaper. Bernier isn't great, but he's only 25 and at least he hits people.

We didn't need another 3rd rate scorer at any price, much less spending $2 mil on a 35 year old for two years.

A broken jaw caused him to miss 19 games two seasons ago. It's difficult to play the hard nosed style he does that made him successful while ou are recovering from a broken jaw, full face helmet or not.  I'd call that a season with a significant (enough)injury.

That was the '07-08 season. 3 years ago. Two years ago he played 74 games. I don't recall the actual injury, but it was early in the year. He was pretty much healthy for the majority of the season.

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And Franzen on the same line as Holmer seems to make Holmer almost redudant.
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Franzen and Homer are nothing alike. Bert is much closer to Homer than Mule is.

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These guys aren't "useless" just cause they don't score goals.So the argument that "players who only fight and can't score or skate don't have a place in the NHL" is invalid because looking at the list above,they obviously do.

To be fair, there are also plenty of non-fighters in the league that don't really belong here.

The point you continue to miss is that Bert is not a mediocre scorer for his price tag.  Yes, his scoring isn't what it once was, but his production is worth well more than his tag.  The players you mentioned aren't in the same boat.

Bert is not a first-rate player, but he's not a third-rate player either.  As far as adding a better player at the deadline, adding a player in what would've been that pro-rated price range could just as likely cost too much in regards to prospects/picks.  While GR isn't bone-dry, its most certainly not abundant with the type of talent teams are calling Kenny and inquiring about.  The Wings draft players for *their* system, which happens to be quite different than most teams.

The bottom line is re-signing Bert was the safe bet, because we could end up with nothing if prices are too high on trade deadline day.
...

...  Bert's played the minutes he has because of the overwhelming injury bug that hit Detroit this season.  Couple that with the fact that those guys were playing with half the Grand Rapids roster and its reason enough as to why everyone's numbers were down this season.  Next year the Wings will have Bert in his second full season and much more familiar with their system.  He's proven he can stay healthy and his confidence should be higher than it has been in years.  He'll be playing a more balanced role on the team and is going to be able to put the puck in the net both on the second or third line given the roster stays healthy.  For his *ability* and all the aforementioned there's no reason Bert can't duplicate and improve on last season and that would make his $1.9375 million cap hit beyond worth it in comparison to other players around the league making the same.

Again, Nystrom can still be had for the bottom 6 if Kenny truly believes he'll benefit this club.  I tend to agree that the Wings would benefit from the Drake-type player Kenny promised us but I'm not about to throw Bert under the bus, as if seemingly blaming him for now not having the room to add one of those types.
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I've admitted on several occasions that Bert was a bargain last season, and that it's not a bad price for someone of his ability. My point is that it doesn't matter. We didn't need a 'bargain' or an eigth potential top 6 forward when we would have been just fine with just a 4th liner grinder and a bunch of extra cap space.

But I'll address the bargain aspect anyway. Something you can't ignore is that there's only so much ice time to go around. Only so many spots in the top 6. Pav and Hank can't play with everyone. Everyone can't get 3 minutes of PP time.

Hudler could score 70 points, Flip could get 60, Bert, Homer, and Cleary could get 50. But they won't. Not all of them at least. Lack of ice time and opportunity WILL mean that someone doesn't get the numbers they're capable of. How much of a bargain is Bert going to be if he gets stuck on the third line and only puts up 13 goals and 22 points? How about another 40 point season from Flip? Or 15 goals from Cleary? Or Hudler? Whether you want to admit it or not, PP time and the quality of their linemates will play a big role in the production of all those players. What good is getting Bert at a minor discount when it means we're overpaying for Flip's production?

All anyone can say in favor of Bert is 'bargain'. But he hasn't scored one point yet, so you have no idea if he will be a bargain or not. You can't just add his full potential without considering the opportunities he'll cost others, nor could you realistically expect him to fulfill his potential from a dimished role. And at this stage, you can't expect improvement either, at least nothing substantial. At best, we could expect similar numbers if he plays another full season on the top lines. Even at that, his presence alone would be costing someone else like Flip or Cleary an opportunity for increased production. And assuming that anyone's production would improve by being moved to the third line is preposterous.

Bert, as an individual, may turn out to be 'worth' his contract. But in terms of his impact on the team, I really can't see it improving the team in any meaningful way. Adding Bert gives a little extra depth in case of injuries. But that's about the only positive I see. But I can also see it coming back to hurt us by limiting our other options. He costs us the opportunity for a much bigger improvement later in the season, and possibly costs us a valuable grinder.

You say we could still add Nystrom or someone similar, but I don't really see it. We're running out of space very quick, and that's assuming a full $2 million increase in the cap. People are expecting minimal raises for Helm and Abby, which is far from certain. A defenseman of any kind of quality is going to cost a decent chunk. If we want someone like Nystrom it could mean we have to sacrifice someone like Eaves or Ritola. And while getting a top end player at the deadline wouldn't be guaranteed, it wouldn't be impossible either. There's always a good number of players available, many being just salary dumps to be had for bargain prices. Nor would we necessarily have to target the best players. A couple mid-tier players could also help considerably more than Bert likely would, and might not cost much in trade. Furthermore, we might not even need to add anything.

Again, I just think Kenny missed the mark on this one. Our top 6 (at least what I expect to be our top 6) lacks speed. We still don't have as many true goal scorers as we should. We lack a tough crease-clearing defenseman. We have a question mark in goal. We're heavily reliant on againg players. And most importantly, our options for addressing any of those are pretty limited for the next two years. Bert doesn't solve any of those problems, and barely even helps the goal scoring. At the very least, we could have had the opportunity to solve a couple of those via trades this year, even if only temporarily. Maybe none of those things will turn out to be real problems. We can hope at least. Unfortunately, that's all we can do.

Hmmmm, lets see I joined in August 2003 and have over 3200 posts, you just joined last March and have 56 posts, now I am not calling you a troll just because you just joined, but my stats alone say that I am not a troll here, there may be a lot of folks who don't agree with my opinions, which I think is great, what kind of forum would this be if everyone held hands and sang koom-by-ya together? We love difference of opinions here, that is what makes this place so great! And if you read my post, I said I would like to see more gritty North American players, that is not saying I am against European players, Fedorov is my all time favorite player, but just because some of us don't like the players like Hudler, we are haters. I do not call the folks who prefer hudler style players North American haters, do I?

Also, there is a difference between saying "You hate European's" and "You're a Euro-Hater?" Uh.... is your real name John Kerry?

I think it has more to do with the fact that you specify 'gritty North American' as opposed to simply 'gritty'. It suggests that if there were two equally gritty players, one being Euro and the other NA, you would prefer the NA, based solely on nationality. Your stereotyping of Euros also lends to that.

If you're going to make generalizations, you have to live with the consequences. In this case, it means people assuming you have an anti-Euro bias.

And there is a world of difference in those two statements. The second implies the slang form of 'hater', rather than literal 'hate'.

And McIlrath will never be Pronger. Not even close. He'd be lucky if he could get close to Chara level.

They're all grinders who won't score anywhere near 20 goals. NFM summed it up fairly well. I quoted his post in response to your original.

And yet you're arguing that these younger players who you feel are better than Bert will be cheaper than he is. Bravo. This is just like people arguing that other teams would want to pick up our garbage in return for good dividends; they bash the players they don't like---i.e. Lebda, Meech, etc.---and want them traded, and then spend time going over the good qualities of those players that would supposedly make them attractive to other teams.

We need all the scoring we can get.  This was made obvious last year.  Bertuzzi, even with the raise, is a steal compared to comparable players in the league.  Now, consider he's had a confidence-building, healthy year where he made a positive impact on a team, in an environment that welcomed him and a fanbase that overall has accepted him.  I think all that adds to the potential to have another good year next year as he gets more comfortable in his role and in the city and with the fans.  

Not to mention he'll have a lot better talent to work with.

With the return of Hudler and the odds favoring a much healthier lineup, the offense should already be much better than it was last season. Add to that the fact that as long as we are healthy, someone like Bert or Flip is going to be on the third line, and missing out on PP time, and thus not scoring up to their full potential; then the difference in offense between someone like Nystrom and Bert is negligible. 5-6 goals isn't going to mean anything.

Furthermore, you're both ignoring the main reason for not signing Bert right now; the cap savings. We had an opportunity to be ~$2 million under the cap while still icing a solid team capable of rolling four lines. The trade deadline is roughly 3/4ths of the way through the season, so that money would be worth $8 million in salary at that point. Wouldn't it be nice to be able to add someone like Semin (some rumors have him heading out of Washington) for a playoff run? Or maybe a big name defenseman? Or possibly a goalie if Howie falters and Ozzie can't pick up the slack? Or a couple extra players to shore up any weaknesses that develop?

Even if we really think we need another borderline top-6 'scorer', why not at least wait until free agency opens to explore what other options are out there? Especially considering that Bert himself said he wasn't interested in signing anywhere else. Could get a better deal? Who knows. Now we'll just have to watch what other teams can get. Bert was coming off 44 points in 66 games, and we got him for $1.5. Willy for the same after a 19g, 48 point season. After two poor years, Afinogenov signed for $800k. Prospal went for $1.1 after 19g/45 points. Even Comrie, after just one bad year, signed for $1.25. You act like it's unprecedented for someone to sign a 'bargain' deal. Signing Bert now, and for a two year deal, is essentially a statement that Holland doesn't think we can improve this group of forwards in the next two years. Unless we get a big jump in the cap, or blow up the roster, we don't even have the option of any meaningful changes, whether it turns out we need them or not.

I'm not saying this move is destroying the team or will for sure prevent us from winning anything. I love Kenny and still think he's the best in the game. But I think we had more options, and better options. I think this time he made a mistake.

Comrie sucks. He does not produce, he is frequently injured, and he has a terrible attitude.
Higgins was invisible this season, and he is hideous defensively.
Tanguay has been invisible for longer than this season, and he is hideous defensively.

All will still demand in the area of $2m. That's where they are.  

Further, I really don't see why you're arguing that we do not need another 3rd line scorer and at the same time arguing that we should have signed a different third line scorer.

Way to ignore the other 5 guys I suggested.

But I'll admit I wasn't perfectly clear on these three guys. My point was that all of them could offer similar offensive potential, and potentially come cheaper, so if that was the direction we wanted to go, they would be better options, IMO. My preference would be one of the other guys though, hence the comment on improving the 4th line, the emphasis on Nystrom in the first post, the other players I mentioned, and the 'maybe' in front of those three.

But in regards to your points on those three:

None are any worse than Bert defensively, all take fewer penalties so that's at least a plus. Comrie and Higgins have had injury problems, but so has Bert. All of them are 5+ years younger.

Comrie scored only a few less goals than Bert in about half as many games. He made $1.25 last year, and hasn't really done anything to warrant a raise. I don't know about his attitude. He's only 3 years removed from his last 20+ goal season. (His 3rd in a row, including 1 30 goal season)

Higgins is also 3 years removed from a career best 27 goal season. (Again, it was 3 straight 20+ years) He's also been either a primary or secondary PKer everywhere he's played, so he's not 'hideous' defensively. Try looking at something other than +/-. He also hits a decent amount. He made $2.25 this past year, but after 2 sub-par seasons in a row, he might be available at a discount. We've had some success with Cleary, Miller, and Eaves, Higgins would be another project, but a decent reward if he came cheap enough. He might still command $2M+, that's part of the 'maybe'. He might be next season's Afinogenov. Just not with us.

Tanguay is only 2 years removed from 41 points in 50 games, and 3 removed from being a point+/game player. Not really a goal scorer, but I'd argue that Bert isn't any better at this stage in his career. In the past 6 years, Bert has played 382 games, and scored 92 goals (0.24/game). Tanguay has played 429, scored 120 (0.28/game). He's also better at pretty much everything else. Little chance he would come (here in particular) for less than Bert, but again you never know.

All three are younger options with similar talent, who might have been available cheaper than Bert. Again, I would have preferred just a 4th-liner, but if we really wanted to go with a scorer, we could have at least waited to see what our other options were, and if we could have gotten something similar (or better) for less. But now we're stuck with Bert for 2 years, so not only do we risk missing out on someone this year, but next year as well.

Many people here are more interested in screaming "omg this is a bad option" than in sharing what may have been a (realistic) better option.

Eric Nystrom + an extra million to spend at the trade deadline >>>>>>>>>> Bert
Winchester, Pyatt, Asham, Malhotra, Miller, maybe Comrie, Higgins, or Tanguay...

Good chance all of them sign for less, some significantly less so we could save a good chunk for the deadline.

I disagree.  Filppula is an average 2nd line player but a brilliant 3rd line player.  We're still waiting for his break-out season instead of a break-out month.  He'll have to break 41pts before you can loudly proclaim him a top six player.  I'm sure he can break that barrier but the fact remains that his best season in the NHL was 40pts in 08-09.

He's not a 'brilliant' 3rd-liner either. He's a far better player with better linemates. This past season, and '08 where he spent a bunch of time with Datsyuk, and then a red-hot Franzen in the playoffs proves that.

That's the worst part of the Bert signing. It will most likely push Flip down, and take whatever PP time he was going to get. Flip isn't going to break out of anything from the third line. He couldn't with Hudler and Sammy, he won't with whomever he gets this year. We'll likely end up spending $7.5 million on a third line that scores 35 goals. I kind of hope we trade him now. He deserves a better opportunity.