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BuppyMember Since 14 Feb 2009
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Posted by Buppy on 08 July 2012 - 02:04 AM
03-07, 1st round loss, 2nd round loss, 1st round loss, 3rd round loss...
Hawks 11-12, 1st round loss, 1st round loss...
Wings drafts from 95-97 (Scotty was director of player personnel), 27 players picked, 8 played at least 1 NHL game, combined total: 415gp, 17g, 47p
We were perfectly capable of some "poor" stretches even with Scotty.
It's a team game, and that goes for the front office as well. I'm sure Scotty was a positive factor, as many others in scouting and management are. All deserve thier fair share of credit, and all their fair share of blame (which IMO is none). You can't say "everyone else" deserves all the credit, but Kenny alone gets all the blame.
One thing all the Kenny bashers seem to be ignoring is the fact that what the Wings are going through now is exactly what the "parity rules" were purposely designed to cause. The draft, the cap, lowering the FA age, etc...all of that designed specifically to prevent teams from being as good as the Wings have been for as long as we have been. In Holland's tenure as GM, every single other team has missed the playoffs at least once. The Wings weren't the only good team in 98, nor were they head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. Colorado, New Jersey, Dallas...all have rebuilt (or are still trying to) since then. Other teams have come and gone.
In 08 we had Hank, Mule, Flip, Hudler, Sammy, Cleary, Stuart, and maybe more that I'm forgetting contributing at a level above thier cap hit. Then we had to start paying people. We lost some guys, and couldn't afford top FAs. When we got some cap space, long-term contracts and/or more competition for 27yo UFAs limited the players available.
Unless you're picking in the top of the first round, you can't expect recent draft picks to add anything. 25 players drafted in 2010 or 11 have played in the NHL. 17 were picked 14th or earlier. Of the other 8, only 3 have played more than 10 games. 3 out of 393. Even the 2009 class is mostly just starting to break in to NHL rosters. 49 of 197 picked 15th or later have played in the NHL, only 15 have played 40 or more games. Average contribution from the 49 so far is 37 games, ~3.8g, 11p. We also haven't had much contribution yet from the 06, 07, or 08 drafts, when Scotty was still here. And there's a lot more NHL regulars from those years now.
Much of our long-term success strategy has been reliance on veterans. That, and lacking top prospects, limit our trade options. A couple years with no cap space limited them further. This last year, when we had space and some assests we could trade, almost no one was on the market and prices for many that were rumored to be were apparently too high for anyone to pay, given the lack of trades.
In short, this is how it's supposed to work. If you think Scotty, or anyone else, would have made any real difference, you're not being reasonable.
Posted by Buppy on 04 July 2012 - 09:40 PM
Short-term overpayment would be ok, but not for 6-13 years...
From our perspective, when does a bit of overpayment stop being a reason not to sign someone? I mean, we have how much cap space?
We're pretty much there. My only hope is the overabundance of forwards we have (16 I think, if we re-sign Abdelkader). I'm hoping we can use the extra forwards as leverage in a trade for a decent d-man (i.e. Yandle).
If people are worried that we're not a playoff team right now, then with Carle we'd be at best a 7-8 seed. If we're a 7 or 8 now, then with Carle we're maybe a 5. And regardless, we may still need a full rebuild soon depending on how Pav and Hank continue to age. What Carle would bring is not worth making that commitment.
Posted by Buppy on 04 July 2012 - 07:54 PM
Missing out on Carle wouldn't be too big a deal. A stop-gap like Hannan or Roszival might be better anyway if we can't swing a trade. Depends on how much Carle would take. $4M or less for 2-4 years? Probably not now that he's the "best" one left. And he's not good enough to make a big difference in how far we can go.
"We've got all summer now," Holland said. "The market has been combed over pretty good. We'll explore trades. We're happy that we got the guys that we did on July 1 (F Mikael Samuelsson, F Jordin Tootoo, F Damien Brunner, G Jonas Gustavsson)."
Holland added: "Part of this might be that we might have to go with some kids that we think are ready."
From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitne...4#ixzz1zhRnGOSk
Right now I have the feeling that with Holland taking his "step back", he may miss out out on trying to sign Carle, or Carle will want more money than Holland is willing to spend for him after being turned away by Suter.
I don't think he'll trade for Yandle, or Nash for that matter, as both teams are well aware of what we currently have on roster, what we need and how badly we need it, and their prices will be way too high for Holland to pull the trigger on it.
And the last line concerns me where he appears to be.. I'll say "comfortable" going forward with what he have and with those in the minors....
Regarding the bold: I see Kenny taking a lot of flak the last few years for expressing confidence in our players. It's like people see comments like that and completely forget what he's tried to do or the circumstances we've been in, and also ignore anything he says about considering other options. Seriously, what do you expect him to say? You think he should act like a fan and say, "This f'in sucks! We suck now and we won't make the playoffs ever again!!!1! Franzen's an A-hole!!one! I'm trading everyone!!?/! I'll trade Joe Louis for that Rocky statue!!! Next guy that walks through that door is getting a blank check just so we can say we did something!!exclamation point!"
The last few years, either because of the cap or lack of available players, our options have been very limited. Sucks that we haven't landed any of those few as of yet, but there's no reason for even fans to be as negative as they have been, much less for Kenny to be.
Posted by Buppy on 24 June 2012 - 03:28 PM
Remember, he was also assistant GM for 3 years, and director of amatuer scouting for 7 before that. He played a significant role in building the team he "inherited". He's also made some big moves that people consider "failures" just because they didn't result in a Cup. Hossa, Hatcher, Clark/Samuelsson/Ranford, Cujo, Lang... He's also facing an uphill battle. We may need some big signing or trade, but that doesn't make doing it any easier. There's one real impact defenseman who might be available, and about 20 teams with the desire and ability to make a good offer for him. We have some assets to trade, but that doesn't mean any teams with the players we want will make those players available or be interested in what we can offer.
Fact is, if Red Wings fans judged other teams or GMs by the same standard Kenny has to live up to, they'd all be considered abject failures. We just lost the best defenseman of our generation, plus Stu, Rafi last year. Our stars are in their 30s. We haven't had any high draft picks during his tenure. We've dealt with the loss of stars and key roleplayers, like Konstantinov, Hasek, Yzerman, Hull, Fedorov, Robitaille, Shanahan, Chelios, Draper, Maltby, Osgood, Fischer, and more without needing to rebuild. And we are still talking about making moves to keep us a Cup contender rather than about rebuilding. That says alot more about Kenny than anything that might happen July 1st or afterward.
But if we don't make any big moves, and Kenny says, like last summer or the deadline, "We wanted to make some moves, but could find one that fit. But we like our team." everyone will just jump on the "we like our team" bit. As if all the best FAs offered to play here for free and every other GM offered to trade us their best players for our worst and Kenny turned them down. It's like half this board thinks the rest of the league has to get Kenny's permission before they can do anything, and the only reason we haven't done more already is because we didn't want to.
Posted by Buppy on 17 June 2012 - 11:44 AM
Wideman/Garrison in place of Nick/Stuie. Parenteau/Moen/Konopka or Prust in place of Hudler/Homer/two of Emmerton/Mursak/Miller/Eaves/Nyquist.
Sign Parenteau,Moen and one of Konopka/Prust,get both Wideman and Garrison and sign a backup goalie for cheap.
Not the best possible team on paper,but definitely much tougher and deeper than the last season roster
Tougher maybe, but certainly not deeper. If we had to settle for that, I'd be ok with it, but I think we'd need to look at our trade options. At least for help on defense.
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Posted by Buppy on 16 June 2012 - 07:01 PM
Not every player is Parise, and you can't have different rules for different players. If Parise, or anyone else, wants to know what other teams are willing to offer, then all he has to do is wait until the 1st and find out. While Parise specifically may know he'll have no shortage of offers, there are a lot of players who don't have that security. They have to choose between the security of getting a contract before there's extra competition from UFAs and possibly getting more money or a better opportunity on the open market.
On the first page I quite clearly explained why I really don't care for this to be investigated. I think it's pretty stupid that team officials are not allowed to say that if a player were to make it to market, they would make a strong push for him. ...
Under the letter of the rules, you're right: this should be investigated and something should be done about it. I just don't like the rules. I was going to respond to the rest of your post, but I don't think it'll be very productive for either one of us, so I'll leave it at that.
In my opinion, "we will not be outbid" is basically the same as throwing out a specific number. Worse even, since a specific number could be lower than what someone else offers. Now Parise knows he should talk to Minnesota after any offer, and he can use those comments to push for a higher salary from anyone who makes an offer. Things can move fast on UFA day. If the Wings want to be aggressive, they won't necessarily want to wait around while Parise gets a counter-offer from the Wild. Doing so could mean they miss out on other players.
Would it have made any difference had the story not been released? Likely no one will ever know. But it's pretty simple rule: Don't talk about players under contract to other teams. It's not hard. And there's no reason for it other than to give yourself an advantage over all the teams who follow the rules.
I agree with you in principle, but comparing this to rape makes you sound a little hysterical.
This is how the world continues to get worse. Just keep letting people get away with whatever they want.
It confounds me how much people are defeated about things that can be fixed. You know every single rape case is hearsay. Might as well not try with those. ...
I don't give a s*** if someone jaywalks. Doesn't mean I'm indifferent to every crime. Some things just aren't worth getting worked up over. This specific case, where the potential damage caused is likely somewhere between none and very little, and the potential for actually proving any wrongdoing is virtually nil, is I think one of those things. Certainly not worth the time and expense of a court proceeding. I don't think it would warrant anything more than a fine anyway, even if it was proven (as much as I would like to see Minnesota prohibited from signing Parise, I don't feel that would be justified).
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Posted by Buppy on 15 June 2012 - 03:15 PM
NHL By-law 15.1 C
The making or causing to be made, through any medium, public or private, any statement indicating any intention or desire of or interest in acquiring the services of any person referred to in (a) [players] or (b) [other contracted team employees, ie: coach, GM...] hereof, except when such statement is communicated to the Member Club entitled to such services in a confidential manner or is made during a period when such person remains on a Free Agent List in accordance with Section 9A.5, may, at the discretion of the Commissioner, be deemed to be a contravention of this By-Law.
If the comments reported were actually made by Leipold, then Bettman could decide it's tampering.
While we all know the needs and cap space of different teams, and can assume who they'll be interested in, saying you'll match/beat any offer goes a lot farther. Too far, IMO. Main problem is there isn't likely any way to prove he really said it, unless he was dumb enough to mention Parise's name on tape/email/etc.
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Posted by Buppy on 12 June 2012 - 02:23 PM
Yeah: QB, OL, RB, WR, TE, DL, LB, DB... hardly anyone.
... there are only certain positions on any football team that actually play more than a couple of plays the entire game.
Football is really probably the toughest. Takes even more good players to build a championship football team, only 6 of 32 teams make the playoffs, and then one poor game (or even a poor half/quarter/series) could end your season. Maybe easier for an underdog team to ride a hot streak to a title, but I think harder overall.
NHL though is certainly the biggest "grind", and likely the most physically demanding.
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Posted by Buppy on 11 June 2012 - 11:37 PM
I'd be surprised if that was really a quote from anyone in the Minnesota organization. That would be tampering and could result in Minnesota actually being prohibited from signing Parise, as well as forfeiting draft picks and/or a fine up to $5M.
You are seriously misinformed. First of all, this was reported by a MAN as a direct quote from the owner of the Minnesota Wild. I trust that he knows how much they will spend since it's his money. ...
In fact, if I was a GM right now, I'd already be writing up a complaint to the league, just to force someone from Minnesota to come out and deny they ever said it.
And regardless what you think of Detroit's future, they do have nearly two decades history of icing a competetive team. Minnesota has 11 years of nothing, showing they don't really know how to build or maintain a team. And every ranking I've seen has the Wings' prospect pool rated higher than the Wild's. Granlund may be a "can't miss", but it seems they don't have much beyond him. Players like Parise and Suter aren't going to look for a team that will win for them. They know they will be key players in the plans of any team. Add them to the Wings and it solves most of the issues you think the Wings have.
I know if I was Parise and worried about the future, I'd take a team that may, if our prospects don't work out, have to rebuild over a team that is already worse and in 10+ years still hasn't actually built anything in the first place. He goes to Minnesota he'll likely be traded in two years when they start their re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-build.
Posted by Buppy on 11 June 2012 - 05:29 PM
Giving up 4 firsts isn't just giving up 4 players we could protentially draft. It's also giving up the ability to trade those picks in the future. Between that and needing to significantly overpay to get him, you sacrifice a lot of flexibility. If he didn't mesh well with our system, or other holes in the lineup appear, we could still end up out of the playoffs...possibly giving up one or more top-10 picks. Maybe not likely, but it's a big risk to take for the right to overpay someone.
I'll say again, the RFA system is designed to very heaviliy favor the team owning the RFA rights. It gives a little bargaining power to the player, but little risk of the team losing its young assets. Offer sheets are very, very rarely worth making. It would have to be a team unable to match a fair offer or a player that the owning team isn't interested in keeping.
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Posted by Buppy on 07 June 2012 - 01:33 AM
1. At $5 million, the compensation is a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.
Evander Kane is worth the cost! He won't cost us more than $5 million per year, first round and third round picks.
2. He is worth $5M, which is all the more reason Winnipeg would match. Hell, they might send us a card to thank us for not making them match $6M.
I'd trade a decent amount for his rights, but I wouldn't bother with an offer sheet. The RFA system very heavily favors the team owning a players rights (obviously, that's what it's supposed to do). Unless the team is very tight to the cap and/or isn't interested in the player it isn't worth it. Maybe if I had a crystal ball and knew for sure he'd be the next Shanny/Iginla...
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Posted by Buppy on 03 June 2012 - 09:19 PM
What exactly could have been done better? We still have a good team, a ton of cap space, and a pretty good prospect pool. What realistic moves could we have made to put us in a better position?
This is the doomsday scenario that Holland has seemed to never planned for. The writing has been on the wall for the last 4 seasons that Lidstrom would be gone, and it's become painfully obvious none of Kindl, Kronwall, or Ericsson were going to be the next top D-man they were thought to be. In the mean time Detroit has also been deficient in the natural goal scorer area. Holland took a chance on Franzen, but he seems to have chosen wrong and Franzen has been nowhere near what hes been before his contract. Now Detroit has been bounced early in the playoffs, the holes in the line up are mounting and players like Carle and Widemann/Semin and Doan will not fill the holes to make this team as competitive that a team needs to be to be real contenders.
The point of this is that Holland could have done a better job of transitioning the team so that they wouldn't be dependent on getting two top tier players thought FA in one offseason to stay where they have been the last 20 years.
Filling the void left by Nick was always going to be a huge problem. Nothing we could have done, except maybe tank a few seasons to stock up on lottery picks, would have changed that. It's not like there have been a bunch of future-HoF defensemen that we passed on as UFAs. At least now we have the cap space to offer Suter top dollar, with enough left over for other improvements.
We are not at all "dependent" on signing Parise. We may not have a top sniper, but we still have a top offense. Only 3 teams scored significantly more than the Wings this season. Even if we miss out on Parise and get someone like Jones instead, or even just re-sign Hudler and promote Nyquist, we should still be a very good offense. Figure out how to get the PP working again and "very good" becomes "elite".
The good news is we actually have the cap space to go aggressively after several of the best UFA options. And we do have a few tradeable assets if we miss out there. Realistically, for being as good as we have been for this long and still having any chance at all of still being an elite team next year speaks volumes about just how well Kenny has been preparing for this moment.
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Posted by Buppy on 23 May 2012 - 09:54 PM
Suter is still under contract. Kenny can't say anything about him, or even hint too overtly, or it would be tampering.
Hey at least there are some folks willing to explain why they think I am in the wrong! Thank you guys!
Hey, Holland is gonna do what he is gonna do...Sure Suter may hate Detroit and will take less NOT to come here, that is fine too. I just don't see why everyone is getting excited over these guys who couldn't make it in the NHL before, didn't we learn our lesson's with Leino and Brunnstrom? I guess he could pan out to be a nice #6 or #7, I just don't hear no talk from Holland about being interested in Suter, he sure talks about guys over in Europe enough, you would think that he would say something...Hey, hopefully he signs everyone he wants to and turns this team back right...
Posted by Buppy on 22 May 2012 - 08:18 PM
4 seasons actually. Iwasn't a member here at that time, but other boards were certainly full of the same negativity.
Wait, correct me if I'm wrong: Didn't six years pass between the Cups in 2002 and 2008? ...
But that just means it's time for Kenny to prove them wrong again.
Posted by Buppy on 19 May 2012 - 06:50 PM
Even starting from a blank slate, there's only going to be so many options. If you're trying to conform to some rigid price and experience structure, you're limiting your options too far. Your approach would only work in a hypothetical world where a good option that fit your model was always available.
A general outline is fine, provided you're willing to be flexible when appropriate. Yours just goes way too far.
A young skill-player or two
A young grinder or two
A young defenseman or two
A handful of seasoned veterans
All the above on cheap contracts, allowing exceptions for exceptional players.
The rest of the roster in their 'prime' give or take a year or two. As many as possible below market value, limited long-term deals.
Strong two-way centers, at least 3, but 4-5 if possible (as long as said players can adjust to the wing), a few snipers, a few playmakers. As many versatile players as possible. Lots of speed. A few high-energy guys, very good on defense, and physical. One of them a center with very good faceoff skills. 3-4 defenseman who can score but aren't liabilities on defense. A couple physical stay-at-home guys. A good goalie.
Age/experience/cap hits to be determined by availablility, priority of need, and future options.
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