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HoweFan

2017 Draft

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Why would we spend time talking about players that haven't been rumored to be available though? There are 30+ defensemen in the league better than Trouba that no one ever mentions because there is literally zero chance any of them get moved.  The reason people talk about Trouba so much is because he's a local kid that would love to play for his hometown Red Wings. He was unhappy playing in Winnipeg (maybe that has changed), and there is a good chance that when he becomes a free agent, he would look long and hard at Detroit as a possible destination. Of course people "want" the best defensemen, but the best defensemen just aren't available. If Orlov were being shopped, of course people would want him. Do you think because people keep bringing up Trouba, they think he's a top 10 defenseman in the league, and would choose him over Karlsson, Hedman, Doughty, etc? Hell no. It's simply because even though it is very unlikely, there is an ever so slight possibility we could pry him out of Winnipeg. There's zero chance we could ever pry any of the aforementioned defensemen out of their respective cities.

But for what it's worth Trouba >>> Orlov & Shattenkirk. If for no other reason, age.

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3 hours ago, kipwinger said:

What's your point?  Kevin Shattenkirk would be Detroit's best defenseman by a long shot too.  You're just finding a bunch of post hoc justifications to advocate for someone based solely on the fact that you like them.  Nothing more.  None of that makes Trouba worth the price you're mentioning. 

I'm not saying Svech or anybody else is untouchable.  I don't think they are.  I just think if you're going to move the top prospects in your organization you'd better be getting someone really good.  Not someone who you hope might be really good one day. 

Trouba is a good young defenseman.  At 23, he still has room to grow, isn't a UFA for a few years, and has the potential to help the team for the next 12+ years.  

Shattenkirk is 27 and looking for his big pay day.  He's as good as he will ever likely be.  He'll have the ability to help the team for 7-8 years and be on the back end of his career for probably 3 or 4 of them.

See the difference?

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16 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Trouba is a good young defenseman.  At 23, he still has room to grow, isn't a UFA for a few years, and has the potential to help the team for the next 12+ years.  

Shattenkirk is 27 and looking for his big pay day.  He's as good as he will ever likely be.  He'll have the ability to help the team for 7-8 years and be on the back end of his career for probably 3 or 4 of them.

See the difference?

I see that you seem to be all about "young guys, with room to grow, and could help the team for 12+ years" when they aren't currently on the team.  But if we're talking about the Wings' young guys, with room to grow, and could help the team for 12+ years you readily insinuate that they're not likely to ever reach that ceiling.  You're being awfully selective here.  Young guys with potential are GREAT as long as you like them, and if you don't then they're just one step away from being a total bust. 

I'm not against Jacob Trouba at all.  I think he's a decent player.  What bothers me is that his myth has grown to such proportions that he's now talked about as if he's some stud defenseman already and not a guy who very well may never turn into what you're pretending he already is.  He's infinitely more likely to be another Bouwmeester or Tyler Myers than he is to be another Doughty, Subban, or Josi.  If you want to take that risk, fine, but your stated reasons for doing so are completely phony.

Edit:  As a matter of fact, I remember when Jay Bouwmeester was on the block, and the rumor was that Detroit was offering "prospects" Tatar AND Nyquist for him.  A  good portion of LGW was all about that because "Tatar and Nyquist weren't guaranteed to be anything at the NHL level".  And while neither of them are superstars, I'm still glad we've got their combined 80+ points a season over anything Jay Bouwmeester would have provided to this team.

Edited by kipwinger

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39 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I see that you seem to be all about "young guys, with room to grow, and could help the team for 12+ years" when they aren't currently on the team.  But if we're talking about the Wings' young guys, with room to grow, and could help the team for 12+ years you readily insinuate that they're not likely to ever reach that ceiling.  You're being awfully selective here.  Young guys with potential are GREAT as long as you like them, and if you don't then they're just one step away from being a total bust. 

I'm not against Jacob Trouba at all.  I think he's a decent player.  What bothers me is that his myth has grown to such proportions that he's now talked about as if he's some stud defenseman already and not a guy who very well may never turn into what you're pretending he already is.  He's infinitely more likely to be another Bouwmeester or Tyler Myers than he is to be another Doughty, Subban, or Josi.  If you want to take that risk, fine, but your stated reasons for doing so are completely phony.

Edit:  As a matter of fact, I remember when Jay Bouwmeester was on the block, and the rumor was that Detroit was offering "prospects" Tatar AND Nyquist for him.  A  good portion of LGW was all about that because "Tatar and Nyquist weren't guaranteed to be anything at the NHL level".  And while neither of them are superstars, I'm still glad we've got their combined 80+ points a season over anything Jay Bouwmeester would have provided to this team.

Bouwmeester was older and on a big contract when they Flames were looking to trade him.  Trouba is 23 and on a reasonable deal.  Apples and oranges.

Trouba is a better defenseman at 23 than anyone the Wings have now, and Cholowski is the only one in the system with a reasonable chance of being better.  He's at least as good as older players like Shattenkirk.  Even if he never develops much more than he is, it's worth trading Svechnikov, or any other winger the Wings have.

It's not just Trouba, either.  He's just the one originally mentioned.  Detroit NEEDS two top pair defensemen.  A young guy like Trouba, Dumba, Brodin, Fowler, or anyone similar would help.

Detroit has Tatar, Nyquist, Larkin, Mantha, Svechnikov, Smith, AA, Holmstrom, Ehn, and whoever they take in this year's draft as either established or potential top 6 forwards.  Most of them are wings.  They have Cholowski as a potential top pair defenseman, and he's probably 2 or 3 years away from the NHL, even without the Wings' overly cautious approach at development.  Why the F would you not trade from a position you're pretty well stocked at to get what you need?  How much better off would they be now if they had traded Sproul and Pulkkinen for a good young established NHL player 3 years ago?  But we can't do THAT because POTENTIAL!!!!!!

The one thing Dave Dombrowski did well for the Tigers is not get caught up in love for prospects.  You Id the ones you're 95+% sure will come close to their ceiling and trade the rest while they have peak value.  Hell, I remember people freaking out when they got Cabrera because they sent Cameron "5 tool future superstar" Maybin and Andrew "You can't trade a big lefty pitcher!" Miller to the Marlins.  

Edited by DickieDunn

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14 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Bouwmeester was older and on a big contract when they Flames were looking to trade him.  Trouba is 23 and on a reasonable deal.  Apples and oranges.

Trouba is a better defenseman at 23 than anyone the Wings have now, and Cholowski is the only one in the system with a reasonable chance of being better.  He's at least as good as older players like Shattenkirk.  Even if he never develops much more than he is, it's worth trading Svechnikov, or any other winger the Wings have.

It's not just Trouba, either.  He's just the one originally mentioned.  Detroit NEEDS two top pair defensemen.  A young guy like Trouba, Dumba, Brodin, Fowler, or anyone similar would help.

Detroit has Tatar, Nyquist, Larkin, Mantha, Svechnikov, Smith, AA, Holmstrom, Ehn, and whoever they take in this year's draft as either established or potential top 6 forwards.  Most of them are wings.  They have Cholowski as a potential top pair defenseman, and he's probably 2 or 3 years away from the NHL, even without the Wings' overly cautious approach at development.  Why the F would you not trade from a position you're pretty well stocked at to get what you need?  How much better off would they be now if they had traded Sproul and Pulkkinen for a good young established NHL player 3 years ago?  But we can't do THAT because POTENTIAL!!!!!!

The one thing Dave Dombrowski did well for the Tigers is not get caught up in love for prospects.  You Id the ones you're 95+% sure will come close to their ceiling and trade the rest while they have peak value.  Hell, I remember people freaking out when they got Cabrera because they sent Cameron "5 tool future superstar" Maybin and Andrew "You can't trade a big lefty pitcher!" Miller to the Marlins.  

Tons of defensemen are better than what we have right now, doesn't mean I'd trade good prospects for them.  And I've elsewhere made trade proposals involving Nyquist/Tatar  for a defenseman, so stop acting like I'm against trading ANYONE for a defensive upgrade.  I'd be happy to move someone who's a little older to a team looking to win now for a defensive upgrade.  I'm not, however, interested in throwing away guys who we'll need a few years from now for a guy who's biggest asset is "he's better than what we have". 

Also, your Cabrera analogy is bull.  Cabrera was already a superstar player when we traded for him.  Trouba isn't even a top pair defenseman on his own team.  That's the sticking point.  You're acting like, and making trade proposals like, he's a better player than he is.  Would I trade Svech (and others) for Erik Karlsson?  That's a more apt comparison to Cabrera, which you well know.

Edited by kipwinger

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2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Why would we spend time talking about players that haven't been rumored to be available though? There are 30+ defensemen in the league better than Trouba that no one ever mentions because there is literally zero chance any of them get moved.  The reason people talk about Trouba so much is because he's a local kid that would love to play for his hometown Red Wings. He was unhappy playing in Winnipeg (maybe that has changed), and there is a good chance that when he becomes a free agent, he would look long and hard at Detroit as a possible destination. Of course people "want" the best defensemen, but the best defensemen just aren't available. If Orlov were being shopped, of course people would want him. Do you think because people keep bringing up Trouba, they think he's a top 10 defenseman in the league, and would choose him over Karlsson, Hedman, Doughty, etc? Hell no. It's simply because even though it is very unlikely, there is an ever so slight possibility we could pry him out of Winnipeg. There's zero chance we could ever pry any of the aforementioned defensemen out of their respective cities.

But for what it's worth Trouba >>> Orlov & Shattenkirk. If for no other reason, age.

Trouba is >>>  Shattenkirk because if you watched the playoffs  Shattenkirk is not good at defending. At. All.

My pipe dream is the Wings swap (with players as well) first round pick with the Stars. Then draft Miko Heiskanen. He's the best dman in the draft and the closest to being nhl ready. He'll never make it to #9 

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34 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Tons of defensemen are better than what we have right now, doesn't mean I'd trade good prospects for them.  And I've elsewhere made trade proposals involving Nyquist/Tatar  for a defenseman, so stop acting like I'm against trading ANYONE for a defensive upgrade.  I'd be happy to move someone who's a little older to a team looking to win now for a defensive upgrade.  I'm not, however, interested in throwing away guys who we'll need a few years from now for a guy who's biggest asset is "he's better than what we have". 

Also, your Cabrera analogy is bull.  Cabrera was already a superstar player when we traded for him.  Trouba isn't even a top pair defenseman on his own team.  That's the sticking point.  You're acting like, and making trade proposals like, he's a better player than he is.  Would I trade Svech (and others) for Erik Karlsson?  That's a more apt comparison to Cabrera, which you well know.

I'm also more for trading tatar and/or nyquist for defensive help .. theres a good chance when they'll be up for free agency we'll lose them for nothing or not much 

when larkin AA mantha svechnikov bertuzzi will be ready to take over that's when zetteberg will be going and hopefull the  nielsen contract ending and that's when I'm sure we'll bring trouba home

 

in the meantime overload on d draft picks and go for a few young d prospects off some teams and hope we pull a erat for forsberg type robbery

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2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Why would we spend time talking about players that haven't been rumored to be available though? There are 30+ defensemen in the league better than Trouba that no one ever mentions because there is literally zero chance any of them get moved.  The reason people talk about Trouba so much is because he's a local kid that would love to play for his hometown Red Wings. He was unhappy playing in Winnipeg (maybe that has changed), and there is a good chance that when he becomes a free agent, he would look long and hard at Detroit as a possible destination. Of course people "want" the best defensemen, but the best defensemen just aren't available. If Orlov were being shopped, of course people would want him. Do you think because people keep bringing up Trouba, they think he's a top 10 defenseman in the league, and would choose him over Karlsson, Hedman, Doughty, etc? Hell no. It's simply because even though it is very unlikely, there is an ever so slight possibility we could pry him out of Winnipeg. There's zero chance we could ever pry any of the aforementioned defensemen out of their respective cities.

But for what it's worth Trouba >>> Orlov & Shattenkirk. If for no other reason, age.

Firstly, your Trouba>>>Orlov & Shattenkirk statement is not supported by anything other than your fetish for a young player.  Which is asinine.  But I don't know why I'd expect anything less from a guy who once said Brendan Smith was untouchable because he was a "dynamic offensive defenseman". Or that Jurco was a "top six winger".  lol.  You're absolutely one of the worst around here for trying to justify personnel moves based on whether or not you "like" a guy. 

Secondly, Trouba ISN'T AVAILABLE EITHER.  There has been no credible source saying Trouba wants out of Winnipeg, or that Winnipeg wants to trade Trouba, since he signed his new contract.  Add to that the fact that Tim Cheveldayoff is the league's least frequent "trader" and the fact that Winnipeg AREN'T rebuilding.  There is no indication that this is likely.  You just REALLY WANT it to happen, so as usual, you're selectively using bits of information to justify it. 

Just more evidence of exactly the thing I'm talking about.  People willing to part with good assets, for marginal returns, because they irrationally like players who aren't as good as fans would like them to be. 

Edited by kipwinger

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18 minutes ago, Fedorovfan said:

Trouba is >>>  Shattenkirk because if you watched the playoffs  Shattenkirk is not good at defending. At. All.

Out of curiousity, how do you define "defending" in the NHL?  Like, what exactly isn't Shattenkirk good at?

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45 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Firstly, your Trouba>>>Orlov & Shattenkirk statement is not supported by anything other than your fetish for a young player.  Which is asinine.  But I don't know why I'd expect anything less from a guy who once said Brendan Smith was untouchable because he was a "dynamic offensive defenseman". Or that Jurco was a "top six winger".  lol.  You're absolutely one of the worst around here for trying to justify personnel moves based on whether or not you "like" a guy. 

Secondly, Trouba ISN'T AVAILABLE EITHER.  There has been no credible source saying Trouba wants out of Winnipeg, or that Winnipeg wants to trade Trouba, since he signed his new contract.  Add to that the fact that Tim Cheveldayoff is the league's least frequent "trader" and the fact that Winnipeg AREN'T rebuilding.  There is no indication that this is likely.  You just REALLY WANT it to happen, so as usual, you're selectively using bits of information to justify it. 

Just more evidence of exactly the thing I'm talking about.  People willing to part with good assets, for marginal returns, because they irrationally like players who aren't as good as fans would like them to be. 

I've never said Smith was "untouchable". I never even said that he was a top pair defenseman, just that he had top 4 potential. He reached that potential. He is a top 4 defenseman. Jurco was extremely misused here and I believe that stunted his growth and he never got back on track. Maybe he became exactly what he was going to become, a complete bust. Whatever. You're right though, I do like certain players, and there are players that I'd like us to keep / go after. You base your opinion solely on stats / numbers? You completely block out any personal bias? That's impressive, you'd make a great GM. I'm a fan. I do fan things. You get upset when people do fan things...

By the way, I never once said that I would part with Svechnikov or Mantha or anyone else. I would have to think long and hard about it, but it would be a tough decision for sure. I would like to use one of Nyquist or Tatar or literally any defenseman in our system in a trade for a top pair defenseman. I've also mentioned several other defensemen I'd love to go after, and said it's very unlikely we have a shot at Trouba, so don't act as if I'm saying it's Trouba or bust...

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idk Bouwmeester is a good dman I don't think the Blues regret that trade

Wings need a #1 but they also need a good top four or two when Green leaves. The D is wide open right now with Green and Kronwall being gone in 1-2 years. If Wings have a chance at any decent puck moving top four they have to be interested. The all or nothing trade approach at this point makes no sense because we just don't have the assets to make it worth it. Improving the D is going to take a number of moves

also I may be in the minority but I think it's possible to win a cup without having a superstar #1 defensemen. Having a lot of good depth dman is an approach I would be okay with Holland taking 

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4 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

If a team trades a good young D, they're not doing it for a package centering on Tatar or Nyquist. It takes high value assets to get a high value asset....

Wait, now...what? Your entire argument is that proven players are worth more than prospects, but now you're saying in this scenario that Svechnikov (a prospect) would be worth more than proven scorers Tatar or Nyquist?

While I would say there are some scenarios where a team would have a higher interest in Svech than the others (a team starting a rebuild, or trying to shed cap, or wanting an asset they don't need to protect and/or is waiver exempt), that is not the same as having more value, nor does Winnipeg fit those situations.

If anything, they are the exact opposite. The only reasons they might consider trading Trouba right now is either: They think doing so can make their team better, in which case they would prefer proven players, or they fear they will lose him for nothing, in which case they want whatever is the best they can get...(first choice likely being a direct replacement) which would again be proven players ahead of Svech at least. High draft pick would likely be acceptable.

A package centering on Tatar or Nyquist maybe wouldn't do it (though it might if they were looking to trade him to add a scoring winger), but if it doesn't then a package centering on Svech for sure wouldn't either. And if you're just looking to add value to a package centering on something like our 1st-rounder, Trouba isn't worth that much. Neither is Fowler or Orlov. Or Dumba. Probably not Barrie or Faulk either. Hamilton probably would be. 

We shouldn't be looking at proven players unless the cost is low, which pretty much none of the players talked about would be. We should be looking at high-end prospects and under-utilized players, good young players who might be had without giving up significant future assets. For the most part the only proven players that get traded are those who have proven they aren't franchise cornerstones. 

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To tell you the truth, I don't give a s*** about "liking" individual players.  I'm not asking them to come over and babysit my daughter, so I don't need to like them at all.  You could literally replace every single player on our team with a different player and I'd be happy as long as the Red Wings were better afterward.  I'm a fan of the team. 

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Tatar and Nyquist are 2nd line wingers. That's their established value. If a team is looking to move a young NHL d-man, they're going to want either a higher end NHL player or a good prospect is return. Svechnikov may or may not do that. If it's Minny, they're likely going to want a guy they don't need to protect. In Detroit that's Larkin and Svechnikov. For Winnipeg or Anaheim, for example where they want to add some scoring maybe Mantha or AA gets it done, maybe they really like Svechnikov. Who knows.

But that's really beside my original point, which was if Svechnikov can bring a young D like Trouba, Brodin, Dumba, etc you do it and don't look back.

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1 hour ago, DickieDunn said:

Tatar and Nyquist are 2nd line wingers. That's their established value. If a team is looking to move a young NHL d-man, they're going to want either a higher end NHL player or a good prospect is return. Svechnikov may or may not do that. If it's Minny, they're likely going to want a guy they don't need to protect. In Detroit that's Larkin and Svechnikov. For Winnipeg or Anaheim, for example where they want to add some scoring maybe Mantha or AA gets it done, maybe they really like Svechnikov. Who knows.

But that's really beside my original point, which was if Svechnikov can bring a young D like Trouba, Brodin, Dumba, etc you do it and don't look back.

Your original point is meaningless. It's like saying "if you can trade a $5 bill for a $100 bill you do it". Maybe you think you're stating some clever insight that no one else has thought of, but you're really just saying something so obvious that no one thinks it's even worth mentioning, since it's equally obvious that you can't do that.

Svechnikov doesn't get you a player like Trouba; you need a package. And in that case the answer is not, "you do it and don't look back", it's "what is the rest of the package?". And the likely answer to that question is going to be something that makes it not worth it to also give up Svech. 

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Hey now, I like Orlov.. *drifts back into the shadows* :P 

No really though, I remember a discussion about him being someone we should look at getting given Washington's upcoming cap crunch. I'm still really bummed we didn't stay in the western conference long enough for Boston to consider trading us Hamilton.

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17 hours ago, kipwinger said:

You and I discussed Orlov, and WE agreed that he's very good.  Nobody else had ever mentioned him.  I bring him up precisely because he's the anti-Trouba.  A guy nobody nobody mentions despite the fact that he outperforms guy Jacob Trouba across the board.  Don't get it twisted, this isn't about Trouba being good.  There are plenty of defensemen as good or better than Trouba.  This is about Trouba being popular, which is a different thing.  That's why it's so annoying.  People don't want the best defenseman available, they want a guy they "like", and are willing to pay astronomical prices to get him. 

Look up Orlov's HERO.  It's better across the board than Shattenkirk AND Trouba.  So why no love for that guy around here?  Because a huge portion of LGW doesn't care about getting the best player, they want a team full of guys they like. 

"People don't want the best defenseman available, they want a guy they 'like.' I'm not one of these people. ORLOV! ORLOV! ORLOV! Orlov is better than Trouba! Orlov is better than Shattenkirk! No one here talks about Orlov! Why does no one talk about Orlov?! You people like Trouba too much. You overrate him. He's not the best defenseman available, he's just a guy you 'like.' I'm not like you people. I'm objective. Can we please talk about Orlov now? When can we talk about Orlov???"

;)

Orlov's good. I don't think he's clearly superior to Trouba and I don't think Trouba is clearly superior to him.

His HERO chart is filthy...

Story_31.png

...but that TOI is a not-insignificant asterisk. As is the fact that he plays for a really good Caps team.

Orlov's career stats:

  • 2011-12: 19 points in 60 games
  • 2012-13: 1 point in 5 games
  • 2013-14: 11 points in 54 games
  • 2014-15: 29 points in 82 games
  • 2016-17: 33 points in 82 games

Trouba's career stats:

  • 2013-14: 29 points in 65 games
  • 2014-15: 22 points in 65 games
  • 2015-16: 21 points in 81 games
  • 2016-17: 33 points in 60 games

So, no, I don't agree that Orlov "outperforms Trouba across the board."

Like krsmith said, Trouba's from Michigan and he's been linked to the Wings in trade rumors. That alone could account for why he gets so much love in an online Wings community. And there's nothing wrong with that. It's fandom. You like what you like, you celebrate what you like.

Like krsmith also said, true top-tier defensemen aren't really available (and even if they are, we don't have much in the way of ultra-sexy trade chips). There are plenty of defensemen who are as good as or better than Trouba (and Orlov), but Trouba is kinda-sorta-maybe in that sweet spot of being very good but not so good that he'd cost us Larkin and Svechnikov and a first-round pick and a second-round pick.

Personally, if we're talking trade targets, I'll say what I've said a thousand times before: we should really be focusing on under-the-radar players that could, potentially, match the production of more expensive players. Moneypuck.

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What if they Wings offered 2 of our 3rds to Anaheim for Silfverberg? They are going to lose in him the expansion draft for nothing. Might be better to get something for him and lose a lesser player. 

My guess is that Holland would be laughed at and told not to call again. There's basically no way that Silvferberg goes unprotected by Anaheim. Bieksa will either be asked to waive his NMC, they buy him out, or Anaheim offers an incentive for Vegas to not draft the unprotected player that Anaheim wants to keep.

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2 hours ago, Datsyukian-Deke said:

What if they Wings offered 2 of our 3rds to Anaheim for Silfverberg? They are going to lose in him the expansion draft for nothing. Might be better to get something for him and lose a lesser player. 

Unless they move another winger to bring in a D or C, they don't need Silfverberg

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9 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

So you agree that Svechnikov and say a 2nd for Trouba is good? Because Nyquististhefuture said Svechnikov is untouchable

Untouchable is one of those things people throw around, but don't mean literally. There isn't a person here who wouldn't trade everyone on their "untouchable" list if they thought the return would be something even better. All it really means is that you think there are better trade options.

Sure, Svech and a 2nd would be good. So good that I don't think there's a chance in hell Cheveldayoff would go for it. Add Tatar and it's a much more realistic package, and also a much less clear answer. If you think it's likely that Trouba will take off like Burns did, you say yes, if not maybe you look at what you can get for just Tatar and a 2nd. 

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