Jump to content


kipwinger's Photo

kipwinger

Member Since 31 May 2011
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 06:27 PM
****-

#2678658 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 22 June 2016 - 07:10 PM

A slow piece of s***. But who cares, speed doesn't matter in hockey anyway.


#2678628 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 22 June 2016 - 04:40 PM

Stats say Brendan Smith is one of the best possession defensemen in the NhL and he is not so there are instances of analytics being not the end all be all to understanding a players performance. Usage plays such a huge part of these stats

I think you should take more stock in the fact that a coach scratches and won't play certain players more than their beastly possession metrics


Brendan Smith IS one of the best possession defensemen in the NHL. He's just not particularly great at other things, like scoring or maintaining his zone coverage. I'm not sure what's so tough about this? You could be an overall bad player but still excel with regards to possession. Conversely, someone like Tyson Barrie is good at scoring, but bad at driving possession. You're conflating two things that aren't the same. Possession metrics don't indicate that you're a good offensive (or defensive) defenseman. They simply indicate that you're a good possession defenseman. Whether or not you value that trait is another story, but the numbers don't lie.


#2678606 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 22 June 2016 - 12:50 PM

The example you just gave isn't a tautology.


#2678566 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 21 June 2016 - 10:31 PM

Your argument is tautological. You think the data is "inaccurate" because it doesn't comport with what you see, and you trust what you see because the data is supposedly inaccurate.

Or, in other words, Tatar isn't a good possession player because I don't see it. And I dont see it because i dont believe possession stats. And round and round we go


#2678545 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 21 June 2016 - 05:56 PM

All it means is that when he's on the ice the team directs more shots at the opposing net than they do if someone else is on the ice. In this respect the stats are quantifiably true. Maybe your perception is skewed. Either way I tend to put more faith in math than I do your eyeball test. But that's just me.
What's more, when you break down his WOWY stats you see that every individual he plays with directs more shots on net than if he weren't playing with them. Its pretty iron clad.


#2678541 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 21 June 2016 - 05:27 PM

I don't really care about the lefty righty thing either. We have enough righties to make balanced pairs now with Green, Marchenko, and maybe Sproul.

I wouldn't trade Tatar thought. I want a team based on possession and he's been one of the best possession forwards in the NHL for the last two years.


#2677712 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 14 June 2016 - 08:37 PM

I don't think there's any reason to over inflate Smiths value, but there's no value in denying it either. He's a good possession defenseman given the minutes he's getting. Currently, he's no problem for the wings on the third pair. But should you find yourself gushing too much over him remember that Green's possession numbers are almost as good AND he scored way more points. That's what stops Smith from being good instead of situationally good. He hadn't, so far, translated his puck possession skills into active offensive contribution. So he's decent, not nearly as good OR bad as his detractors or proponents suggest.

Saying all that, I'd keep him. I think the league is trending toward athletic, puck possession, defensemen. And I think he has value in that regard. But I think ideally he will always be a third pair guy unless he starts producing enough offense to counterbalance his poor defensive zone play.


#2677165 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 08 June 2016 - 04:12 PM

Except that's not true at all. You absolutely CAN isolate individuals performances using advanced stats. In simple terms, by aggregating the shots for and against accrued by a players most frequent linemates when said player is on the ice w/them vs. when they aren't and someone else is. Its no different than measuring someone's possession numbers, just in reverse. Instead of counting the shots for, you'd count the shots against. And I assume you're perfectly fine with those stats, you've used them repeatedly in the past to analyze the play of Brendan Smith. And using those same measures you find that Miller's unit gives up a ton of chances when he's on the ice rather than say Jurco or Anderson. Probably because despite his shot blocking, he's too slow and weak to gain control of the puck, and too unskilled to advance it when he does. Either way, Miller sucks.


#2677127 The Wings request permission to interview Todd Richards

Posted by kipwinger on 07 June 2016 - 06:05 PM

Damn, pretty bummed about this. Really was looking forward to seeing a more aggressive Red Wings team. Hope whomever we get is the same style. I REALLY don't want to watch any more boring trap hockey out of this team.


#2677034 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 05 June 2016 - 05:54 PM

To put things into perspective, Jurco played every game in November of last season and scored 1 goal and 1 assist.  He also played every game in February and scored two goals.  That's 24 games, in two 12 straight game segments.  So while I agree that he's seen spotty usage at times, he's also seen prolonged usage at times as well.  In neither case has he produced to the extent that he should given his skill set.  He may need more time, and maybe he'll get it, but he's been undeniably disappointing thus far in his career. 

 

For comparison's sake, Teemu Pulkkinen played every game in October a scored 4 goals and 2 assist, and every game in November and scored 2 goals and 3 assists. 




#2676956 Alexander Radulov: Wings on short-list of desired teams

Posted by kipwinger on 04 June 2016 - 12:13 PM

why would Stamkos leave a team that has been to the conference finals 2 years in a row and will be a contender for years to come just to go to a team like the Red Wings? 


Same reason Babcock left our team for a worse one. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


#2676903 Possible Leak of Florida Panthers New Logo

Posted by kipwinger on 02 June 2016 - 11:01 PM

I like it. Looks respectable. The old one looks like one of those crappy tattoos you pick off the wall.


#2676883 Alexander Radulov: Wings on short-list of desired teams

Posted by kipwinger on 02 June 2016 - 05:26 PM

I'd absolutely give him two years, especially if it meant getting him at the lowest possible cap hit. 2 years at 4-4.25 million would be a done deal for me.


#2676392 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 22 May 2016 - 06:19 PM

It makes sense to pay $6M and + for Okposo (20 goalso while playing with Tavares).

It makes sense to pay $5M for locker room cancer Radu.

It doesn't makes sense to pay $10M for the second best goalscorer in today'so NHL???

 

This whole "He played with Tavares" argument is false.  Okposo's primary center this season was Neilsen, and he scored more of his points with Neilsen than Tavares.  When Okposo played with Neilsen their overall possession numbers improved over when they were apart.  The same is true of when he played with Tavares.  Tavares improved Okposo's corsi, BUT Okposo improved Tavares' corsi as well.  Which shouldn't come as a surprise.  When you put guys who compliment each other together the sum tends to be greater than the individual parts. 

 

http://stats.hockeya...2015-16&sit=5v5

 

None of this is new though.  This argument has been invalidated just as often as it has been true.  Crosby is the best center Kessel ever played with, and Kessel actually scored WAY MORE after they were split up.  Likewise, Datsyuk is the best center Hossa ever played with and yet none of Hossa's five most productive seasons were on Datsyuk's wing. 

 

Saying "player X only scored as much as he did because he played with player Y" is only sometimes true, and absolutely isn't in Okposo's case.

 

Edit:  AND Okposo's best points/60 came on Brock Nelson's wing.  Not Tavares' OR Neilsen. 




#2676209 Mantha

Posted by kipwinger on 18 May 2016 - 09:27 PM

Good point, and let's not kid ourselves, we missed a guy like Franzen this year big time. Imagine how well he would have contributed to offensive zone time, and as a result, total offense this year.

If Mantha becomes another Franzen I'll be thrilled.