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kipwinger

Member Since 31 May 2011
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#2567172 Do we need a trade to get our offence going ?

Posted by kipwinger on 30 January 2015 - 02:15 PM

 

I don't necessarily agree with the idea of trading certain people, but I am always amused by how easily people forget what Holland has tried to do again and again over the last several years. When he fails to do what he is attempting to do, we ended up signing a lot of s***. Then when the s*** breaks down, our prospects get called up and prove themselves.

 

Suddenly Holland is a genius who knew what he had in Grand Rapids and that's why he stood pat.

 

Wait, what?

 

If Holland had accomplished some of the things he's tried to accomplish over the last few years in free agency, this team would look very different. Based on what he did accomplish in free agency, it's reasonable to say we're probably lucky Holland struck out more often than not. The kids are legit, and I'll give all the credit in the world to Holland and his team for great drafting and development. But Holland tried hard to do something that would give this team a very, very different look than they have now. Maybe it would've worked out, and maybe not, but it is absurd to suggest that this was the plan all along and Holland knew what he was doing. 

 

Holland has consistently refused to trade highly touted prospects and high draft picks.  He's repeated his mantra of "building from within" soooo often that I've wanted to punch him.  Presumably he has this point of view because he believes it's the right way to build and team.  And what do you know, it's paying off.  Not really sure how you can be critical of him right now?  And if the roster management (and it's current successes) aren't attributable to Holland, who does get the credit?  Luck?  Babcock?  Dan Cleary?




#2567163 Marchenko recalled from GR... Ouellet sent down

Posted by kipwinger on 30 January 2015 - 01:50 PM

I will say this.  Good on Brian Lashoff.  I'm really glad that guy is a million dollars richer.  Sure he was a plug.  But he did EXACTLY what he was signed to do, and what was expected of him.  Kudos buddy. 




#2567153 Marchenko recalled from GR... Ouellet sent down

Posted by kipwinger on 30 January 2015 - 01:23 PM

Holy s***!  You know what this means? 

 

We've finally got a right shot defenseman! 

 

Also, this means Smith will get to play his natural side.  That should be a good way to boost his production. 




#2567132 Franzen on IR

Posted by kipwinger on 30 January 2015 - 11:50 AM

I think that goes for just about everyone Kip. I've always been a believer and supporter in Holland but there's no way I can sit here and say that I've never questioned any of his moves / personel decisions... He's made quite a few that I haven't liked and I'm sure he'll make quite a few more that I won't like. No GM is perfect, but Ken Holland is prettyf****** brilliant when it comes to managing his team.

I actually didn't mind the Quincey signing and I like it now. I didn't mind the Cleary signing and I still don't. I hated the Tootoo signing from beginning to end, same goes for the Samuelsson signing, but that was worse than I even anticipated... I think the big thing though, is that all of these were basically stop gaps to get us through before the kids were ready.

"In Kenny we trust"...

 

I still don't like Quincey's contact.  He's played much better and all that, but he's still overpaid.  By a lot.  As far as Cleary, I kinda don't care about them re-signing him this year.  Whatever, let him play out one more year as the 13th forward and retire a Wing.  I hated last year's signing though, but those circumstances were different. 

 

Either way, my point in bringing them up was just to say that while I thought Kenny was making questionable moves because he was washed up, he was really just putting bandaids on the problem until the kids could take over.  Which has always been his stated strategy, but which I thought was a bad idea...until I saw how good they were. 

 

So, long story short, if Kenny moves a prospect or two for a veteran, I'll assume those prospects weren't 100% necessary.  Because it's not like he doesn't know what good prospects look like.  And if he doesn't, then I'll assume we've already got whatever we need in our system. 




#2567129 1/29 GDT - Red Wings 1 at Lightning 5

Posted by kipwinger on 30 January 2015 - 11:30 AM

 

Nothing as bad as you'd read in this thread.

 

Wings were better in the first. Tampa were better in the second. Shots were pretty much even after 2.

 

Mrazek was ugly-bad, and that was the difference in the game. Plain and simple.

 

McCollum played well enough in the third to keep some of Tampa's hotdogs from padding their stats. Small victories........

 

Wait, you mean our rookie, third string, goalie had a bad game against the best offensive team in the league?  What a bum!

 

In all seriousness, I'm glad to hear it. Obviously, looking at the score it seemed like one of those games where we just looked retarded for 60 minutes.  If the team played well, and Peter was just off, oh well.  Obviously I'd like to see them win, but over the course of an 82 games season you're going to lose some games.  If that's the case, I'd rather they lose because one guy has a bad game than because 20 guys did. 




#2567128 Franzen on IR

Posted by kipwinger on 30 January 2015 - 11:23 AM

Andersson is a scrub. I place him slightly above Nestrasil, only because he's a decent penalty killer. I fully expect him to be the odd man out next season, either playing in Grand Rapids or with another club. No big loss. To say he has more value than Franzen is laughable. You can hate on Franzen all you want, it doesn't change the fact that, when healthy he can contribute on any given night. Is he streaky? Absolutely. But that's part of the package. I don't believe we need him to win games, and I would welcome a trade, but he is in no way, a player we NEED to get rid of...

 

Holland waives Nestrasil to make room for the better player, Jurco, and people ***** because we lose an "asset". If Holland were to send Jurco down and keep Nestrasil on the team, people would ***** that he is not icing his best players... Holland just can't win with some fans... Oh well...

 

I bitched about the Tootoo, Sammy, Cleary, Quincey, etc. signings, trades, and re-signs.  I was convinced that Holland was past it and didn't have any fresh ideas.  Apparently he knew a little bit more than I did just how good his prospects were.  Now our team is pretty legit.  And we're certainly positioned to be VERY good in the next couple of years. 

 

So I've got to admit I was 100% wrong about Holland.  At this point, when it comes to building a team, developing players, or acquiring talent, I'm going to defer to the guy who's got four Stanley Cup rings sitting on his mantle. 




#2567116 Franzen on IR

Posted by kipwinger on 30 January 2015 - 09:26 AM

...how soon we forget.  We lost Nestrasil.  I know, he wasn't the best, but we still lost him due to overcrowding.  Jurco had exemptions, but he was obviously better, so Holland kept him.  Nesty wasn't a huge loss, but we still lost him.

 

Next year BOTH Jurco and Pulkkinen are out of exemptions.  We lose Cleary to UFA.  That's it.  Now Jurco and Pulkkinen are vying for one spot.  Holland WILL re-sign Nyquist, Jurco and Andersson (all RFA's) so that will leave just one spot.  It was minimal damage losing Nestrasil, but do you really want to lose one of Jurco or Pulk? Especially at the cost of keeping Franzen and his headcase here?  The time has come.  Either buy him out or give him the Pronger treatment for the next 5 years.  If we lose one of those two so we can have Franzen float around out there and peter in a few points and shots here and there, then something is wrong with Holland, seriously. Stop the bleeding somehow. Just don't lose Jurco or Pulk or ANYBODY else to roster overcrowding by useless players.

 

And, no it's not "fan speculation" on Franzen's head problems.  Its been said time after time, that he gets into funks that cause him to lose focus and have no desire to do anything.  The only speculation is what may be causing this...nothing personal Johan, just business, we need that roster spot.

 

You said it yourself.  Nestrasil was waived because he couldn't beat out Jurco (a guy with minor league options).  Not because there was no room for him.  If he'd been good enough to keep, Jurco would have gone down. 

 

If there's one thing you can say for Ken Holland, it's that he almost never lets an asset go for nothing.  Hence, we've still got Kindl on this team.  Nestrasil, Almquist, Emmerton, Mursak, etc. all had opportunities to play their way onto the team.  If they didn't stick, it's because they weren't better than their competition (Jurco, Kindl, Glendening, Miller/Eaves/Andersson).  When Ken Holland loses a player that he really wants to keep, I'll be happy to acknowledge it.  But as of now, he's only losing guys who can't hack it. 




#2566750 Do we need a trade to get our offence going ?

Posted by kipwinger on 29 January 2015 - 02:55 PM

I'd give Smith and Marchenko for Yandle...well, I'd HATE to give up on Smith and especially Marchenko, but if we are talking getting Yandle and not giving up an untouchable.  No way to Pulk.  I would add AA or Frk into a package.  Think there is any interest in Callahan or Ferraro out there?  Seems that they aren't going to make it to the bigs here in Detroit...

 

Where do you get your information about the value of our prospects from?  I'm not saying that to be a jerk, I really want to know.  Because Frk and AA aren't even close to having the same value in a package.  Athanasiou is probably VERY close to untouchable.  He's the best center prospect we've got, and prior to his injury was beginning to maul AHL competitions after only 15 games as a pro.  By game 25 (his injury) he was eating teams up.  Frk...on the other hand, can't even stay in the lineup. 

 

Sometimes I think you add guys to packages for no other reason than you're not familiar with them.  Then, once you are, you'd never trade them in a million years. 




#2566747 Do we need a trade to get our offence going ?

Posted by kipwinger on 29 January 2015 - 02:47 PM

If I offered you $1,000,000 today OR $0.01 today, doubling each day for 30 days... Which would you take?... 95% of LGWers take the million up front, I'm just glad Holland would take the penny...

 

Holland wouldn't make any combination of a deal there. Sure, making that deal makes us better today, but we take a huge hit in the future...

 

The smart move is somewhere in the middle though right?  I mean, I get that it's good to be patient and build a contender.  But at some point, you've got to decide now's the time, and try to win.  Always looking toward the future obscures the fact that (pardon this goofy description) the present was the future at one point.  What's all this saving, and developing, and patience working toward if not to make a Cup run?  And as far as I know, no team (in the modern era) has done that with 100% homegrown pieces.  Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston...all had significant help from outside.  If you're not willing to move pieces for guys like Yandle, or O'Reilly, or Spezza, or Kesler, etc. when they become available, exactly what are you willing to move them for?  And if the answer is "nothing", you're in trouble.  Because, as I said, nobody has ever managed to win that way yet. 




#2566735 Larkin or Mantha?

Posted by kipwinger on 29 January 2015 - 01:55 PM

All this O'Reilly for Larkin+ talk is silly anyways.  

 

Colorado doesn't need centers. They need a top 2-4 defenceman with comparable value and we don't have that to trade.

 

Agree.  I've been talking in hypothetical this whole time.  In no way to I think this actually happens.  First, because of the reasons you said.  And secondly, because I don't think Ken Holland would do a first rounder from a year ago wrong like that. Not his style. 




#2566698 Larkin or Mantha?

Posted by kipwinger on 29 January 2015 - 09:36 AM

haha I didn't expect this topic to "explode" like this lol

 

It was only hypothetical, barring trading for a superstar I'm not trading either

 

I think that's understood.  As I've said already, I think everybody would agree that none of our quality prospects should be traded for a tin of beans.  But it's always fun to speculate on guys' values and the types of packages you could put together around them. 




#2566695 1/27 GDT : Red Wings 5 at Panthers 4

Posted by kipwinger on 29 January 2015 - 09:23 AM

 

The thing is, those guys aren't better than Franzen.  They work harder than Franzen.  And honestly that, more than whatever his production is trending, is what irks me about his play and why I think he's bad for the team. 

 

Can you imagine if Tatar had Mule's size?  Because I don't think Tatar necessarily has a better shot or more skill than Franzen.   Just greater will to get the puck and go the net.

 

I never really buy into the "for his cap hit" excuse for his effort (not that you were making it).  For one, the Wings are starting to be on the losing end of that contract now.  And second, I just think it's bad for team morale and culture when you have a guy with so much talent who's half-assing it out there.  And he absolutely is half-assing it out there some nights.  

 

Franzen has always been streaky, but you'd still notice him during games.  Taking shots, creating scoring chances, being a jerk to play against.  This season there's been so many games where he was completely invisible out there.

 

Anyway, I didn't mean this into another bash Franzen fest.  It just struck me after the game last night how it hadn't even occurred to me that he was out of the lineup.  He is not missed, and he should be. 

 

I'm not arguing any of that.  Those young guys are better than Franzen because of a number of things.  They are, perhaps, no more skilled than him.  But that's not all that goes into a hockey player.  They're skilled AND work hard, so they're better players.  And he's unnecessary. 

 

Again, I'm not defending the guy.  Or even saying we should keep him.  I'm saying his production hasn't noticeably dropped this year.  There's a slight drop for sure, but I see no reason to attribute that to an overall decline rather than the yearly slumps he goes through like clockwork.  Knowing what we know now, I'd even have been in favor of buying him out a year ago.  But again, that's because of his terribly long contract and the new punishments that go with keeping those around.  Not because he's changed much (or at all) as a player. 

 

Finally, I agree with you about his work ethic being bad for the team.  For a few years now I've believed this team lacked an identity.  If seems like we're finally seeing a little bit of one emerging. Fast, tenacious, and often explosive offensively.  He certainly doesn't fit in with that.  But that's not a knock on his production, that's just a change on our organizational direction.  Send him to a team like Boston or San Jose and he's flourish. 




#2566655 1/27 GDT : Red Wings 5 at Panthers 4

Posted by kipwinger on 28 January 2015 - 11:25 PM

Hmm...Franzen's definitely not where he always is. He's a -12 for one thing. He's never been a minus player over a whole season. That will be a hard hole to dig out of. And 7 g in 33 gp vs. 16 in 54 or 14 in 41. I don't want to attempt the math, but he is not at his usual pace for goals. We have 34 games left and, if he played the rest (not probable) and kept current pace, he would be at 14 in 67 games. Not good.

 

It's too bad. He looked really good for the first 10 games. Maybe he's decided to get his quota of bad games in before Christmas and make a push in the second half. Let hope, but it's good that it hasn't effected the team all that much.

 

Franzen goes through droughts every single year.  He was on a goal scoring drought this year.  I don't see what the difference is?  He had 16 goals and 25 assists last year in 54 games.  He had 7 goals and 15 assists in 33 games this year.  It's that that much of a drop off.  Especially given how hot and cold he runs.  Again, I'm not saying we've got to keep the guy or anything.  He's clearly not necessary for the team's success.  But I think this Franzen has regressed narrative is overblown.  

 

Also, can we all agree that using plus/minus to make a point you want to, and then lambasting it as a "worthless stat" the rest of the time, is shaky at best.  I've seen you personally talk trash about the plus/minus stat.  So I'm not sure why you're using to make a case now. 




#2566647 1/27 GDT : Red Wings 5 at Panthers 4

Posted by kipwinger on 28 January 2015 - 10:02 PM

 

Why use his career average?  It's not like he's put up around the same number of points since he entered the league.  His first few seasons are not why he got that contract.  

 

He's at .67 PPG this season (Nevermind that he's also a -12 and half his points are on the PP).  

 

The previous four seasons his PPG were .76, .76, .73 and .72.   It's a small sample size, but it is also a significant drop.  It is not made up.

 

I don't know if he's streakier or not overall but prior to his injury, he had 1 goal in 20 games.  

 

And it goes beyond points.  You can't quantify his disappearing act by points.  Players often factor in games without showing up on the scoresheet.  There's so many games that go by where you don't even notice Franzen, and that shouldn't happen with someone of his talent.  Guys like Sheahan and Tatar regularly factor into games more than Mule, even when they don't score.

 

He's scoring at .67 ppg despite a pretty big slump (as you point out).  He's gone through those before.  Nothing about his play this year led me to believe that he wouldn't end with right around 55 pts.  Which is usual for him.  I dont' see some big, qualitative difference in his play.  He was doing what he does every year.  

 

I agree, lots of people factor into games even when they don't score.  Those guys are better than Franzen.  And it's because of those guys that he's no longer necessary.  But he is what he's always been.  The only difference between then and now is that we no longer rely on him as much.  But quite a lot of people here have said, or implied, that his performance is worse this year than in years past.  I just don't see it.  If Nyquist and Tatar (and Abby to a lesser extent) hadn't emerged into go-to guys, Franzen would have been glued to Zetterberg or Datsyuk's wing like he always is, and his PPG probably wouldn't even have dipped at all.   




#2566639 Larkin or Mantha?

Posted by kipwinger on 28 January 2015 - 09:28 PM

Depends on what you mean by quick fix. 32 year old? Nope. top end guy just entering his prime years wanting out of a losing organization? Hell yes.

 

Like who?  Just for my own understanding of your position.  I mean, I don't think you're saying that those guys should be traded for a tin of beans.  But what kind of player are you talking about here?  O'Reilly?  Yandle?