Conflict in the Crease

[kickazz 5,459]

17 hours ago, Buppy said:

He was pulled 4 times all last year. I think you're counting one of the times Howard was pulled. That they came in a span of 14 games doesn't mean anything. 3 of Holtby's came in a 14 game span as well. 

And again, being pulled does not necessarily mean he was playing poorly.  

 

Well if wins are so important then why has Howard taken so much crap the last few years? He's 176-88 in wins/loss. Do the rules only apply when someone dislikes a goalie? Mrazek has a worse win/loss ratio at 46-30. 

GAA/Sv% the two most important goalie stats go out the window because it will make Mrazek look bad am I right? He's bottom of the league for GAA, he better fix it soon. 

As of now, Howard is ranked number 1 in Sv% AND GAA in the league. And it's not even close, Only Tukka Rask is closer in Sv% and he's still off by 2 points. 

Edited November 1, 2016 by kickazz

[kickazz 5,459]

12 hours ago, Buppy said:

That his bad games came in a relatively narrow time frame is not all that uncommon. 

Yet it's a problem because when the season is ending, bad games in a "relatively narrow time" is an issue. Call it whatever you want, consistency or whatever, that needs to not happen. 

17 hours ago, Buppy said:

He was pulled 4 times all last year. I think you're counting one of the times Howard was pulled. That they came in a span of 14 games doesn't mean anything. 3 of Holtby's came in a 14 game span as well. 

And again, being pulled does not necessarily mean he was playing poorly.  

So let me get this straight, when a goalie lets in like 3-4 goals in 10-15 shots in 4 games over a span of just 1 - 1.5 months, you don't consider that poor play? So what's the point of pulling the goalie in hockey? Do you honestly think you know more than coaches? 

Edited November 1, 2016 by kickazz

[puckloo39 5,686]

35 minutes ago, chaps80 said:

A chance to redeem himself? If Blashill said that, I dunno wtf he's on, but i want some. Mrazek has lost 3 of 7, Howard 1 of 3. Mrazek has nothing he has to redeem himself for. Sure he's allowed more goals than Howard and has been pulled once, but wins are what's important, not individual stats.

But sure Blash, if Mrazek doesn't get it done tomorrow and you want to give Jimmy more games as a result of that, which leads to more pressure on him, which makes there a bigger chance that he reverts back into sieve mode,why not eh? 

the blogger said it... not the coach.   Read linky.

[Jacksoni 418]

Much ado about nothing here. There is no conflict in our crease. The crease is our only hope of making the playoffs if that's our goal, which can be debated. And that means business as usual, both goalies are playing while Mrazek gets the majority of games but not by a huge margin.

Just my two cents.

[HadThomasVokounOnFortSt 878]

This shouldn't be a situation, Mraz is the future. 

[Echolalia 2,961]

 

1 hour ago, Buppy said:

I didn't say save% was bad, I said average save% was. And 35 starts is a small sample size.

And I'm not sure your stats are right. Since January, Mrazek has only 4 starts below .844 save%, and 3 above .972 (all SOs). 

This table shows starts and save%. Pretty similar. Mrazek has fewer bad games, but a few have been really bad statistically. But it is just a handful bad games. 

	Mrazek	Holtby	M%	H%
1000	3	1	8.57%	2.33%
950	9	10	25.71%	23.26%
930	3	5	8.57%	11.63%
920	3	4	8.57%	9.30%
910	3	3	8.57%	6.98%
900	3	2	8.57%	4.65%
890	1	1	2.86%	2.33%
880	1	4	2.86%	9.30%
870	1	4	2.86%	9.30%
860	0	4	0.00%	9.30%
850	2	1	5.71%	2.33%
sub850	6	4	17.14%	9.30%
total	35	43
total sub900	11	18	31.43%	41.86%
Total +930	15	16	42.86%	37.21%

I took my values from NHL.com so unless they're incorrect I don't know what to tell you.  I also used 54 starts, every single one of Mrazek's starts since the beginning of last season.  That's representative of roughly half his entire NHL career.  Not a small sample size, and when we're talking about half the total value (particularly the most recent half) it's usually a good indicator of what's going on.  He looks inconsistent from game to game.  That observation has been confirmed with the ideal mathematical equation defined to measure variability from the mean and contrasted with another goalie whom you compared him to, which showed more reasonable deviation.  Even looking at the table you assembled shows that Mrazek's distribution demonstrates two peaks at either extreme which account for 43% of his starts.  Holtby demonstrates a peak at .950 but his lower half values are pretty consistent and more flat.  His two highest values are right next to each other while Mrazek'a are on opposite ends of the graph.  It's just another way to visualize Mrazek's inconsistency and is in line with what I've already mentioned.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

12 minutes ago, HadThomasVokounOnFortSt said:

This shouldn't be a situation, Mraz is the future. 

Assuming he proves he can play well for 60+ games a year.

[chaps80 1,591]

1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Well if wins are so important then why has Howard taken so much crap the last few years? He's 176-88 in wins/loss. Do the rules only apply when someone dislikes a goalie? Mrazek has a worse win/loss ratio at 46-30. 

GAA/Sv% the two most important goalie stats go out the window because it will make Mrazek look bad am I right? He's bottom of the league for GAA, he better fix it soon. 

As of now, Howard is ranked number 1 in Sv% AND GAA in the league. And it's not even close, Only Tukka Rask is closer in Sv% and he's still off by 2 points. 

Rask is also his team's undisputed #1 and he plays more games (hasn't yet because of injury but he's 4-0 so far). Howard has played a whole three in a backup role. Backups having better numbers than starters happens all the time due to playing less.

Edited November 1, 2016 by chaps80

[Buppy 1,720]

1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Yet it's a problem because when the season is ending, bad games in a "relatively narrow time" is an issue. Call it whatever you want, consistency or whatever, that needs to not happen. 

So let me get this straight, when a goalie lets in like 3-4 goals in 10-15 shots in 4 games over a span of just 1 - 1.5 months, you don't consider that poor play? So what's the point of pulling the goalie in hockey? Do you honestly think you know more than coaches? 

First, don't make up stats. If you want to debate, at least put in the effort to actually look up the stats you're talking about. Making s*** up to support your argument is bush league.

And go ahead and ask any coach if pulling the goalie automatically means the goalie was playing poorly. It's a team game. Sometimes the team plays poorly, and the goalie suffers for it. I feel like that isn't something that should have to be explained.

1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Well if wins are so important ...

I assume you meant to quote chaps there, rather than me.

50 minutes ago, Echolalia said:

 

I took my values from NHL.com so unless they're incorrect I don't know what to tell you.  I also used 54 starts, every single one of Mrazek's starts since the beginning of last season.  That's representative of roughly half his entire NHL career.  Not a small sample size, and when we're talking about half the total value (particularly the most recent half) it's usually a good indicator of what's going on.  He looks inconsistent from game to game.  That observation has been confirmed with the ideal mathematical equation defined to measure variability from the mean and contrasted with another goalie whom you compared him to, which showed more reasonable deviation.  Even looking at the table you assembled shows that Mrazek's distribution demonstrates two peaks at either extreme which account for 43% of his starts.  Holtby demonstrates a peak at .950 but his lower half values are pretty consistent and more flat.  His two highest values are right next to each other while Mrazek'a are on opposite ends of the graph.  It's just another way to visualize Mrazek's inconsistency and is in line with what I've already mentioned.

OK, originally you said since January. Regardless, I think you still did something wrong. He has 56 starts in that time frame. All but 8 of them in the range of .844 to .972. 38 of them (68%) in the range of .870-.968. For Holtby, 49 of his 66 (68%) in the range of .875-.964. All but 9 in the .840-.972 range.

Updated table:

	Mrazek	Holtby	M%	H%
1000	4	3	7.14%	4.17%
950	10	19	17.86%	26.39%
930	9	10	16.07%	13.89%
920	8	7	14.29%	9.72%
910	4	6	7.14%	8.33%
900	5	4	8.93%	5.56%
890	2	2	3.57%	2.78%
880	2	6	3.57%	8.33%
870	3	5	5.36%	6.94%
860	1	3	1.79%	4.17%
850	2	1	3.57%	1.39%
sub850	6	6	10.71%	8.33%
total	56	72
total sub900	16	23	28.57%	31.94%
Total +930	23	32	41.07%	44.44%

[kickazz 5,459]

3 hours ago, Buppy said:

First, don't make up stats. If you want to debate, at least put in the effort to actually look up the stats you're talking about. Making s*** up to support your argument is bush league.

And go ahead and ask any coach if pulling the goalie automatically means the goalie was playing poorly. It's a team game. Sometimes the team plays poorly, and the goalie suffers for it. I feel like that isn't something that should have to be explained.
 

I gave you stats and you conveniently ignored it and took the easy way out by saying "just because they're pulled doesn't mean they're bad". You should take own advice about the whole rant you went on about with the definition of "context" a few posts ago. Almost every game Mrazek got pulled out of last year had to do with his poor performance. Context. And lol, don't give that bs about how it's a team sport. A team is as strong as their weakest link. And some of the games Mrazek was pulled out of was EARLY into their start. 2 goals on 5 shots, 2 goals on 7 shots. When a player plays bad, he gets scratched, benched, pulled. Regardless of whether or not it's a team sport. 

Goalies can get  pulled because of poor performance. Some games they get pulled because of defense performance, sometimes pulled for health reasons (i.e Holtby due to dehydration) Quit generalizing arguments. Step by step process. If the numbers are showing 2 on 5, 2 on 7, it most likely to be a goalie issue. Next step would probably be to confirm that hypothesis and actually look at video replay to see. CONTEXT. 

Sometimes people need to stop staring at the numbers and actually take a look at how the numbers visually represented themselves. It might not be easy to do that for corsi but it's definitely something that can be done to see how a goalie performed in making or not making saves. Just staring at numbers is Bush League Geekdom edition. Look below, both goals given up are weak. He was clearly off his game. As a side note, I recall your stats and your stance was that Pulkinnen would be a great player. Last I checked he was waived twice and buried in the minors. 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2016 by kickazz

[chaps80 1,591]

1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Well if wins are so important then why has Howard taken so much crap the last few years? He's 176-88 in wins/loss. Do the rules only apply when someone dislikes a goalie? Mrazek has a worse win/loss ratio at 46-30. 

GAA/Sv% the two most important goalie stats go out the window because it will make Mrazek look bad am I right? He's bottom of the league for GAA, he better fix it soon. 

As of now, Howard is ranked number 1 in Sv% AND GAA in the league. And it's not even close, Only Tukka Rask is closer in Sv% and he's still off by 2 points. 

Howard has taken so much crap because he was a very solid consistent goalie for the first 4 years of his career, but since his injury during the 2015 season, he's showed flashes of his old self, but for the most part he's been bad. Really bad. He's a 7 year veteran making a lot of money and fans are sick of never knowing which Howard you'll see when he's playing, and many want him gone. There's no passes and patience for him like Mrazek sometimes gets anymore. This is only his secong full season in the NHL playing on a team with a suspect D and who couldn't score last season. 2015 he was up because either Howard or Gus were injured. You can't compare the two. Howard played on good teams at the beginning of his career and still couldn't get past the second round. It's not hard t see why there's different expectations and exceptions for both.

[kickazz 5,459]

2 minutes ago, chaps80 said:

Howard has taken so much crap because he was a very solid consistent goalie for the first 4 years of his career, but since his injury during the 2015 season, he's showed flashes of his old self, but for the most part he's been bad. Really bad. He's a 7 year veteran making a lot of money and fans are sick of never knowing which Howard you'll see when he's playing, and many want him gone. There's no passes and patience for him like Mrazek sometimes gets anymore. This is only his secong full season in the NHL playing on a team with a suspect D and who couldn't score last season. 2015 he was up because either Howard or Gus were injured. You can't compare the two. Howard played on good teams at the beginning of his career and still couldn't get past the second round. It's not hard t see why there's different expectations and exceptions for both.

I mean neither goalie has actually done well when the team was bad. Both have gone through stretches of being good but not over the course of entire season. Neither of them are Dominic Hasek. Only Hasek could play on a bad team, carry them, win the Vezina and the Hart trophy. The way I see it, both goalies have shown flashes of bad. Both have shown flashes of good. Howard imo is less versatile, Mrazek likely has the higher potential. 

Edited November 1, 2016 by kickazz

[Jacksoni 418]

1 minute ago, kickazz said:

I mean neither goalie has actually done well when the team was bad. Neither of them are Dominic Hasek. Only Hasek could play on a bad team, carry them, win the Vezina and the Hart trophy. The way I see it, both goalies have shown flashes of bad. Both have shown flashes of good. Howard imo is less versatile, Mrazek likely has the higher potential. 

I would add Vladislav Tretiak and Carey Price to that very fine edge of goalies carrying teams like that. Your reasoning is on point regarding potential in my opinion though.

[kickazz 5,459]

46 minutes ago, Buppy said:

And go ahead and ask any coach if pulling the goalie automatically means the goalie was playing poorly. It's a team game. Sometimes the team plays poorly, and the goalie suffers for it. I feel like that isn't something that should have to be explained
 

Lol again with the generalizations. He was pulled because of some bad performances. His bad performance came after 2 months of great performances. Trended upwards, then all of a sudden downwards for about 1 to 1.5 months. That's inconsistency. 

How many times were all the starting goalies in the league pulled in 2015/2016 and how long a stretch of bad performances did they have. 

Apparently, Jeff Blashill did have something to say about Mrazek's consistency, albeit in the most politically correct way possible, clearly alluding to his strentch in Feb/March last season. 

“He’s got great confidence,” Wings coach Jeff Blashill said. “He’s got a real short memory which is a real good thing as a goalie. He's got real good athletic ability. The No. 1 thing is fundamentals and technique. As his fundamentals and technique improve, that drives consistency.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nhl/red-wings/2016/10/01/detroit-red-wings-petr-mrazek/91390488/

 

Edited November 1, 2016 by kickazz

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Why are so many people acting upset about Howard playing well and getting in games?  It's silly.  

 

 

BTW, the last time a Cup winning goalie played in 70+ regular season games was Broduer in 02-03.

Quick had 69 in 11-12, only one other guy had 60 games played.

[kickazz 5,459]

4 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Why are so many people acting upset about Howard playing well and getting in games?  It's silly. 

Ego. 

[Buppy 1,720]

3 hours ago, kickazz said:

I gave you stats and you conveniently ignored it and took the easy way out by saying "just because they're pulled doesn't mean they're bad". You should take own advice about the whole rant you went on about with the definition of "context" a few posts ago. Almost every game Mrazek got pulled out of last year had to do with his poor performance. Context. And lol, don't give that bs about how it's a team sport. A team is as strong as their weakest link. And some of the games Mrazek was pulled out of was EARLY into their start. 2 goals on 5 shots, 2 goals on 7 shots. When a player plays bad, he gets scratched, benched, pulled. Regardless of whether or not it's a team sport. 

Goalies can get  pulled because of poor performance. Some games they get pulled because of defense performance, sometimes pulled for health reasons (i.e Holtby due to dehydration) Quit generalizing arguments. Step by step process. If the numbers are showing 2 on 5, 2 on 7, it most likely to be a goalie issue. ..

You gave a (again, incorrect) stat on how many times Mrazek was pulled. You then tried to dismiss the times Holtby was pulled as the result of that one time he was dehydrated.

Yes, I made a generalization. One you explicitly agree with, so I'm not sure what you're trying to argue against. Your generalization; that Mrazek was bad for 1 to 1.5 months; is wrong though. Even if we assume that all the bad statistical games were bad play (and we really shouldn't, which was the point of the generalization), he still had several good games in that stretch.

I'm not going to analyze video of every game. I suspect even if I did we'd disagree on whether many of the goals were 'bad' or not. My point was never that Mrazek hasn't been bad at times. The point is that all goalies are "bad" at times, and even bad stretches aren't uncommon.

I gave an example of Holtby, pulled 3 times in 14 games, 7 of those 14 games had a sv% .875 or lower. I gave another of Price, mentioned as a model of consistency, having 10 "bad" games in the first two months of his Vezina year. How about Hasek? 2000-01 Vezina year. 6 of his first 10 games under .895. Another stretch of 5 in 8 later in the year.

And I didn't cherry-pick those seasons either. They are the only three seasons I have looked at. 3 Vezina seasons, two of them players mentioned in this thread as "consistent", yet none of them are significantly moreso than Mrazak last year. Maybe I just got lucky and the three arbitrary seasons I picked just happened to fit what I'm saying, but unless someone can show some data to the contrary, I'll stand by my assertion.

Regardless, I suspect that the definition of "consistency" will be contrived to fall at whatever point people can mark a distinction between Mrazek and other goalies.

 

47 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Why are so many people acting upset about Howard playing well and getting in games?  It's silly.  

BTW, the last time a Cup winning goalie played in 70+ regular season games was Broduer in 02-03.

Quick had 69 in 11-12, only one other guy had 60 games played.

No one is upset. Nor has even one person said Mrazek should play 70 games. Some have said Mrazek is our starter but that's it. Even you seemed to acknowledged that. Not sure why you keep bringing up the 70 game thing.

[MabusIncarnate 5,344]

17 hours ago, chaps80 said:

Another goalie thread? There's already one about Howard.

I'm glad he's playing well, and I think a big reason for that is he feels less pressure and can be more relaxed in the backup role. He's always been his own worst enemy when it comes to dealing with the mental side of his game, and that may be a reason that he's never done anything of significance despite playing on some good teams early in his career when he was at his best. And then the past 2-3 seasons as a whole were a huge mess. If sheltering him works, keep it up. But as for the starting job, do we really want to go down that road again? On a lot of other teams he'd have been cut loose awhile back. Mrazek has his faults, but he's more skilled and stronger mentally and still developing and getting used to playing a lot of games. What someone else said about him not having the advantage of a mentor like Osgood had Vernon, Legace had Hasek and Joseph, and Howard had Osgood is interesting as well.

We are going to be a bit more open to leaving more specific threads as their own this season to broaden different conversations and not have them all merged into one large bulk one. The Howard thread is primarily about his individual play and whether or not he has a place here or should be dealt, trade options, possibilities, etc.

[wings_fanatic 677]

I will just be one of the ones who says told you so when howars eventually faulters. He couldnt get the job done when we had lidstrom and rafi and pav and homer and franzen all still playing. In fact i remember some of the soft playoffs goals he let in against the sharks in the game 3s that ended up killing us making us go down 3 to zip. He really only had one good consistent playoff run the year against the hawks. He is great one minute and awful the next. Its silly that we are even debating this. Soon enough everyone will be calling for howard to be benched just like last year as soon as he faulters. Petr is our guy. Deal with it.

[shocky2002 36]

Howard: 92.15 xSV%

Mrazek: 92.61 xSV%

[Euro_Twins 4,476]

53 minutes ago, shocky2002 said:

Howard: 92.15 xSV%

Mrazek: 92.61 xSV%

Where did you get those magical numbers? what do they even represent?

[kliq 3,755]

22 minutes ago, Euro_Twins said:

Where did you get those magical numbers? what do they even represent?

lol, out his ass.

Howard has a Save % of 97.3 this year, and 91.5 career. Not to mention he has not had a single season where his Save % was ever 92.15.

He's trolling as per usual.

[TheXym 2,606]

6 hours ago, Euro_Twins said:

Where did you get those magical numbers? what do they even represent?

Probably you have to take his "introductory stat class" to comprehend it.

[LeftWinger 4,961]

Mrazek with 1 goal or less tonight. Bank.

[wings_fanatic 677]

2 hours ago, F.Michael said:

And this is why we have both netminders share the crease...When 1 of them falters - the other is there to take over.

Everyone says howard took over at the end of the regular season. He never really played that great. He was still letting in about 3 goals a game and never really made huge saves to win us games. He was playing average at best in front of a team that was playing average. And then he lost both games in round 1 where he played below average. We did NOT make playoffs cuz of howard