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HockeytownRules19

Cholowski playing really well

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12 hours ago, kliq said:

I dont get why people are disputing anything here. For the kid to be good at the NHL level, ideally he needs to play well in the WHL, then if/when he goes to the AHL he needs to play well also. Nobody is saying that success at the WHL level guarantees success at the NHL level, but its a good first step.

Can't we just leave it at that? All we can evaluate the kid by is his performance at the WHL level because that's where he is playing.

But he's the new whipping boy now that Smith is gone.  Lazy player.  + sucks.

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On 1/9/2018 at 11:36 AM, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Ummm...not quite.

1st bold: He turns 20 on Feb 15th. The season started on Sept 21st and ends on March 18th. He was 19 1/2 (is that accurate enough?) when the season started and he will be 20 all of one month when the season ends. He was essentially an 18 year old for all of last season. So yeah he's playing the season as pretty much a 19 year old, right?

Underlined bold: Although I admittedly don't follow the CHL, I do do research before I post. Here is the link I am basing ages on:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junior_ice_hockey

Some tidbits from the article:

"Junior hockey is ice hockey competition generally for players between 16 and 21 years of age."

"The CHL currently places a cap of three 20-year-old or overage players per team, while only four 16-year-olds are permitted. "

Have I checked every teams roster to see how old every single player is? No. But common sense would dictate that teams would try to get as many older players on the team as they could. And being that Cholowski is going to be a 20 year old, it stands to reason that there are already guys in the league who started the season at 20 and will be 21 before the season is over. That would make them older with more years played, Right? And as I believe was already stated by kickazz(?) the guys who are above him in points are older and been in the league longer? Am I right? So how old are those guys?

2nd bold: Not according to the link I posted.

3rd bold: So then being 6th? in the league right now means nothing then?

Finally, my points were that he is playing well for the league he's in. Do you agree? He's a defenseman, so I am more concerned about his defense than points. Am I wrong?  One can argue the fine details all they want, but it doesn't change or delegitimize  anything I posted.

My main point is that I ignore stats for the most part of older players in juniors because it really doesn't mean much.  If a player at that age isn't putting up big numbers than it's a problem for sure.  I get that he's a defensemen, but if he wasn't high in the scoring list for Dmen, this thread wouldn't exist, so that's why I focus on discounting the stats in the context of this thread.  I haven't seen him play in junior to judge otherwise anyway.

So, just to provide more statistical age evidence, I did go through ever roster and of the 710 players that have played at least 1 game, he's older than 620 (or 87%) of them.  The 87% is actually probably low in reality though because of the small group of players that are older than him, there is a good chunk of them that haven't played many games (literally some with 1 game) due to age restrictions.

I don't have this year's stats, but assuming similar to last year....at start of season, average age for player in WHL was 17.98 years.  He started the season at 19.6 years.  Most sole point was that he's playing against younger guys, which is normally a big deal at that age level, so I wouldn't place too much weight on his production in terms of future projections.

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22 minutes ago, toby91_ca said:

My main point is that I ignore stats for the most part of older players in juniors because it really doesn't mean much.  If a player at that age isn't putting up big numbers than it's a problem for sure.  I get that he's a defensemen, but if he wasn't high in the scoring list for Dmen, this thread wouldn't exist, so that's why I focus on discounting the stats in the context of this thread.  I haven't seen him play in junior to judge otherwise anyway.

So, just to provide more statistical age evidence, I did go through ever roster and of the 710 players that have played at least 1 game, he's older than 620 (or 87%) of them.  The 87% is actually probably low in reality though because of the small group of players that are older than him, there is a good chunk of them that haven't played many games (literally some with 1 game) due to age restrictions.

I don't have this year's stats, but assuming similar to last year....at start of season, average age for player in WHL was 17.98 years.  He started the season at 19.6 years.  Most sole point was that he's playing against younger guys, which is normally a big deal at that age level, so I wouldn't place too much weight on his production in terms of future projections.

Average age is 17.98 and his age was 19.6 you’re nitpicking for the sake of arguing.

Not much of a physical difference between an average age and his age.  

Edited by kickazz

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2 hours ago, kickazz said:

Average age is 17.98 and his age was 19.6 you’re nitpicking for the sake of arguing.

Not much of a physical difference between an average age and his age.  

I actually wasn't nitpicking at all here....difference between 19.6 years old and 18 years old is massive.

Go look at a bunch of players that played in junior for 3 or years and check their production difference from 18 to 19 years old.  I'd be you'll see a lot increase production 50+ % in that one year and the difference we are talking about is closer to 2 years than it is to 1.

I've seen it, over and over and over again.  The quick and easy example is Mantha...at 18 he scored 89 points in 67 games, at 19, he scored 120 points in 57 games.....increased his production by 59%.

I'm not saying it's always like this, but it's quite ordinary.  It's hard to do this by looking at the good NHL players because most of them never play in junior by the time they are 19.  The best of the best are in the NHL a year earlier, the good players may stay back a year in junior, but for the most part, it's rare to play in junior 2 years after draft age for guys that ultimately become NHL stars.

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1 hour ago, toby91_ca said:

I actually wasn't nitpicking at all here....difference between 19.6 years old and 18 years old is massive.

Go look at a bunch of players that played in junior for 3 or years and check their production difference from 18 to 19 years old.  I'd be you'll see a lot increase production 50+ % in that one year and the difference we are talking about is closer to 2 years than it is to 1.

I've seen it, over and over and over again.  The quick and easy example is Mantha...at 18 he scored 89 points in 67 games, at 19, he scored 120 points in 57 games.....increased his production by 59%.

I'm not saying it's always like this, but it's quite ordinary.  It's hard to do this by looking at the good NHL players because most of them never play in junior by the time they are 19.  The best of the best are in the NHL a year earlier, the good players may stay back a year in junior, but for the most part, it's rare to play in junior 2 years after draft age for guys that ultimately become NHL stars.

You’re saying to look at certain players who played in juniors and see how their production increased between age 18 to 19 and concluding it must be because of age. I’m not sure if I agree with that. Looking at the top 10 currently - 3 of the top 10 scorers in the entire WHL were 18 when they started this season. 

2 of the top 10 defensive scorers were 17 when they started the season and both are still beating Cholowski in points.

Looking at the best WHL players your theory doesn’t really hold weight since 17 and 18 year olds are outplaying some of the 19, 20 year olds.

Which leads me to believe that experience in the league and personal skill level is what’s contributing to success between the 18 and 19 year olds (bear in mind some of those 17 year olds still havent turned 18). 

 

 

Edited by kickazz

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2 hours ago, toby91_ca said:

I actually wasn't nitpicking at all here....difference between 19.6 years old and 18 years old is massive.

Go look at a bunch of players that played in junior for 3 or years and check their production difference from 18 to 19 years old.  I'd be you'll see a lot increase production 50+ % in that one year and the difference we are talking about is closer to 2 years than it is to 1.

I've seen it, over and over and over again.  The quick and easy example is Mantha...at 18 he scored 89 points in 67 games, at 19, he scored 120 points in 57 games.....increased his production by 59%.

I'm not saying it's always like this, but it's quite ordinary.  It's hard to do this by looking at the good NHL players because most of them never play in junior by the time they are 19.  The best of the best are in the NHL a year earlier, the good players may stay back a year in junior, but for the most part, it's rare to play in junior 2 years after draft age for guys that ultimately become NHL stars.

And this is why I'm not impressed with the kid...Yeah - sure - I hope I'm wrong, but at age 19 - many 'quality' prospects are in the AHL.

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13 minutes ago, F.Michael said:

And this is why I'm not impressed with the kid...Yeah - sure - I hope I'm wrong, but at age 19 - many 'quality' prospects are in the AHL.

He can't go to the ahl until after this season. Or he can join the griffins for a playoff run if his season ends sooner. 

 

There is an agreement in place between the NHL and the CHL (Canadian Hockey League, the overarching organization beneath which stand the OHL, the WHL, and the QMJHL) which exists primarily to protect the CHL. The rule is as follows:

Players drafted and playing for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors.

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18 hours ago, kickazz said:

You’re saying to look at certain players who played in juniors and see how their production increased between age 18 to 19 and concluding it must be because of age. I’m not sure if I agree with that. Looking at the top 10 currently - 3 of the top 10 scorers in the entire WHL were 18 when they started this season. 

2 of the top 10 defensive scorers were 17 when they started the season and both are still beating Cholowski in points.

Looking at the best WHL players your theory doesn’t really hold weight since 17 and 18 year olds are outplaying some of the 19, 20 year olds.

Which leads me to believe that experience in the league and personal skill level is what’s contributing to success between the 18 and 19 year olds (bear in mind some of those 17 year olds still havent turned 18). 

 

 

You're absolutely right, most of the best players in the league are normally the younger guys, but that's not because they are younger, it's because they are the better talents.....those best players won't be around at 19 and 20 years old.....that's my main point....if a guy is in juniors at that age, he's probably not that great.  Doesn't mean he won't progress, but that's just my assumption at that point in time.

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1 hour ago, toby91_ca said:

You're absolutely right, most of the best players in the league are normally the younger guys, but that's not because they are younger, it's because they are the better talents.....those best players won't be around at 19 and 20 years old.....that's my main point....if a guy is in juniors at that age, he's probably not that great.  Doesn't mean he won't progress, but that's just my assumption at that point in time.

Yes but because of the chl, nhl agreement players like cholowski who were drafted can't go to the ahl until they turn 20, or turn 20 by December 31 of that season. 

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Looking at Cholowski as a defenseman myself he's probably our best young defensive prospect in some time.

Cholowski thinks the game. Everything seems to go slower and/or more deliberate when he has the puck. This is not bad. His play speed will pick up. But he's starting from the right spot and has some of the tools the greats had.

Some of our top players were cerebral players doubting if they could possibly keep up with the speed of the NHL, noticeably Zetterberg and of course 'The perfect human', Lidström.

My bet is Cholowski will adjust and be a legit two-way top 4 defenseman on the Wings.

Edited by Jacksoni

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2 hours ago, Euro_Twins said:

Yes but because of the chl, nhl agreement players like cholowski who were drafted can't go to the ahl until they turn 20, or turn 20 by December 31 of that season. 

Cholowski could have played in the AHL this season though, but he can't now until his season ends (Portland gets eliminated from the playoffs). He was drafted by Prince George, but originally decided to go the college route rather than Canadian juniors. Since he was not in the CHL when he was drafted by the Wings, he had the option to go straight to the AHL as early as last season. He wasn't ready, and I'm okay with that. Everyone develops at different rates, and Cholo has taken huge strides since being drafted. I'm excited for this kid, and hopeful that he can develop into a top pair defenseman some day. I don't think there's any question he'll be an NHL defenseman, it's just a matter of whether or not he hits his ceiling.

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13 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Cholowski could have played in the AHL this season though, but he can't now until his season ends (Portland gets eliminated from the playoffs). He was drafted by Prince George, but originally decided to go the college route rather than Canadian juniors. Since he was not in the CHL when he was drafted by the Wings, he had the option to go straight to the AHL as early as last season. He wasn't ready, and I'm okay with that. Everyone develops at different rates, and Cholo has taken huge strides since being drafted. I'm excited for this kid, and hopeful that he can develop into a top pair defenseman some day. I don't think there's any question he'll be an NHL defenseman, it's just a matter of whether or not he hits his ceiling.

I'll buy that chicken when it hatches

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This is kind of a silly debate.   Two defenseman draftedhigher than Cholowski are also still playing in Juniors and are having worse seasons.   There's nothing really unusual about his being in juniors this year,  not in his having a good but not spectacular season.   It's pretty typical. All it really tells you about Cholowski is that he's probably not better, right now,  than Charlie McAvoy is.   He's not behind many of his peers at all. 

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4 hours ago, Jacksoni said:

Looking at Cholowski as a defenseman myself he's probably our best young defensive prospect in some time.

Cholowski thinks the game. Everything seems to go slower and/or more deliberate when he has the puck. This is not bad. His play speed will pick up. But he's starting from the right spot and has some of the tools the greats had.

Some of our top players were cerebral players doubting if they could possibly keep up with the speed of the NHL, noticeably Zetterberg and of course 'The perfect human', Lidström.

My bet is Cholowski will adjust and be a legit two-way top 4 defenseman on the Wings.

 

Him and Ras are both cases of players we will know nothing about until they make the AHL/NHL. Men, especially those with man sized bodies at 18-19 tend to dominate the CHL +1/+2 draft because they are men playing against kids. From my own experience the best predictor is how they transition to the AHL. So with both Cholo and Ras all I ever say is that they aren't showing negative signs in their development.

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