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2019 Draft

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24 minutes ago, TLGTrico said:

Isn't Cozens considered a consensus top 5?  If so , we'd have to win the lottery to get him, and if we do we probably don't want to take him with a top 3 pick.

Say we finish 5th worst(where we are right now) then there is a chance to pick him up correct? Anything better than 5 we see where we land anything positionally after 5 we see what picks are left. 

Kinda getting excited to see what we get ! 

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35 minutes ago, TLGTrico said:

Isn't Cozens considered a consensus top 5?  If so , we'd have to win the lottery to get him, and if we do we probably don't want to take him with a top 3 pick.

Kinda. Sorta. Maybe. He could go 3rd or as late as 8-10th. Hard to say.

Edited by Dabura

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7 minutes ago, Dabura said:

Kinda. Sorta. Maybe. He could go 3rd or as late as 8-10th. Hard to say.

Yup, and the same can be said for a number of guys. Any of Podkolzin, Cozens, Dach, Byram, Zegras, Turcotte, Boldy, Krebs, etc. can go in any order in the 2-10 range.

This is exactly why I'm not as concerned as some about the draft lottery. Winner the draft lottery (top 2 pick) was going to be a long shot regardless where we finish, and while I'd obviously rather get a higher pick, it doesn't really matter too much to me if we're drafting 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th. Regardless we're getting a high end prospect, and of that list, I'd be okay with just about any of them. 

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2 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Yup, and the same can be said for a number of guys. Any of Podkolzin, Cozens, Dach, Byram, Zegras, Turcotte, Boldy, Krebs, etc. can go in any order in the 2-10 range.

This is exactly why I'm not as concerned as some about the draft lottery. Winner the draft lottery (top 2 pick) was going to be a long shot regardless where we finish, and while I'd obviously rather get a higher pick, it doesn't really matter too much to me if we're drafting 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th. Regardless we're getting a high end prospect, and of that list, I'd be okay with just about any of them. 

100%

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8 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Yup, and the same can be said for a number of guys. Any of Podkolzin, Cozens, Dach, Byram, Zegras, Turcotte, Boldy, Krebs, etc. can go in any order in the 2-10 range.

This is exactly why I'm not as concerned as some about the draft lottery. Winner the draft lottery (top 2 pick) was going to be a long shot regardless where we finish, and while I'd obviously rather get a higher pick, it doesn't really matter too much to me if we're drafting 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th. Regardless we're getting a high end prospect, and of that list, I'd be okay with just about any of them. 

 

5 minutes ago, Dabura said:

100%

We're gonna win the lottery you peasants

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20 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Reminds me of last year's draft. A consensus 1and 2, and after that it's a crapshoot to predict the top 10.

Basically, yeah. Except this year it's lots of centers and only one or two defensemen.

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6 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Ok. So I've done a 180 on this. Looking at it calmly, obviously wanting the #1 or best odds to get it, but honestly  finishing 6th and winning it, rather than last and losing it, sounds good. Since the odds are so stacked against teams anyhow. There are a lot of great players in the top 10, we will get an impact player for sure.

Plus I am so happy to see this team winning on the backs of our kids. It'd almost be better to draft in a slot where we can pick a player based on need rather than having to pick a player because he is projected top 2. Don't get me wrong, I'd still love to win Hughes or Kakko though, and hope we can, but we'll get better next year no matter what.

This has been my take as well...Just like last season - I'd rather see some of the young guys emerge, and contribute instead of hiding in the shadows.

The chance of all 3 bottom feeders keeping their current spot come April 9th is fairly slim.

I think we're due moving up this year.

 

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1 hour ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

nsus 1and 2, and after that it's a crapshoot to p

 

1 hour ago, F.Michael said:

This has been my take as well...Just like last season - I'd rather see some of the young guys emerge, and contribute instead of hiding in the shadows.

The chance of all 3 bottom feeders keeping their current spot come April 9th is fairly slim.

I think we're due moving up this year.

 

We need to lose our last 2 games... these wins have been "fun" but we really need 2 big losses here.

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As mentioned by CRL in another thread Ottrado has clinched the 1st lottery percentage chance. Avs get no less than #4

Looking at today's standings with most teams @ 80 games played... and for grins ran things in the lose for higher percentage of draft choice spreadsheet. 

As things sit before any more games are played. Not to mention our ROW is 3rd highest so any ties in points with anyone other than Ducks/Oilers we move down in the draft. 

image.png.f0be3f0d4ab0f18a1495edb9847453ff.png

Now if everyone wins to see max points possible.....which doesn't affect our position at all @ 5 (yeah I know KRS the likelyhood of bottom teams winning is a mixed bag)

image.png.9cdbf9b9e58f843c71d803124009bc68.png

Then same numbers and everyone loses except Ottawa(locked) and we continue our streak...which is the worst possible scenario. We get between 8th and 11th pick. 

image.png.640a4ce106859179bdaa04e5c03f0a8a.png

So if we dump the last 2 games and others win....

image.png.b9cf8b1386e3a1f3caed3baa00f842b3.png

So its boiling down to NJ, Buffalo(4pt game) and us for third spot in a big way.  So we can get between the 3rd and 11th pick at this time...LOL

I personally believe we are moving up in the draft but that's just my opinion/hope/wish/prayer/offering....

and LA congrats on what is looking like second best odds with your lineup...

 

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11 minutes ago, AtlantaHotWings said:

... So we can get between the 3rd 1st and 11th pick at this time...LOL

I personally believe we are moving up in the draft but that's just my opinion/hope/wish/prayer/offering....

FIFY

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He was injured earlier in the season, but injuries don't seem to be a chronic thing with him as far as I've read.  I have read that a number of scouts think his build is "slight" but he'll add bulk. 

Having never scouted a single hockey player my concerns are entirely theoretical, but IMO there are only about two valid reasons not to take Hughes over Kakko.  First, Kakko is having a historically good season for a rookie in the Liiga which is a professional men's hockey league.  Hughes is having a historically good season for the USDP, which mostly plays against USHL kids who aren't good enough to play in the CHL.  Second, Hughes' style is not be conducive to the NHL game so he's going to have to adapt.  It's entirely possible that change may impact his effectiveness in some way.  He's still obviously going to be good, but teams may decide Kakko's power game is more conducive to the NHL and take him instead given that they're both relatively equal in terms of their upside in every other regard. 

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Tanking for the best odds in the draft lottery, vs. Relying on luck, letting the balls fall where they may...

2 years ago (2016-17), we finished the season with 79 points, 25th in the league. All three of the bottom feeders (Colorado, Vancouver and Arizona) got bounced out of the top three draft slots. New Jersey won the number one pick with 9 less points than us. Philadelphia won the number two pick with 9 more points than us. Dallas won the number three pick with the same number of points as us (more ROW).

So basically, if we had earned one extra point in any of the 82 games that season, we would have picked 3rd instead of 9th. We would have had our pick between Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Elias Pettersson, Cody Glass, etc. Instead, all of those players were gone and we picked Michael Rasmussen.

I remember reading an article after that draft that two teams other than Vancouver were really high on Pettersson. One of those teams was the Detroit Red Wings. Imagine how much different this team would look right now with Elias Pettersson instead of Michael Rasmussen... Or how about a future top pair of Heiskanen - Hronek...

Luck... Let's hope it's on our side this year...

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1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Having never scouted a single hockey player my concerns are entirely theoretical, but IMO there are only about two valid reasons not to take Hughes over Kakko.  First, Kakko is having a historically good season for a rookie in the Liiga which is a professional men's hockey league.  Hughes is having a historically good season for the USDP, which mostly plays against USHL kids who aren't good enough to play in the CHL.

(Note: I realize you're sort of playing devil's advocate, so what I'm going to say isn't me hardcore disagreeing with you.)

Hughes has played against a ton of top college teams. He actually tends to play his best hockey when he's playing against older players.

What Kakko is doing in the Liiga is incredible, but Hughes' body of work is at least equally impressive.

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Second, Hughes' style is not be conducive to the NHL game so he's going to have to adapt.

Hughes' style is absolutely conducive to the NHL game; he's the most shifty, elusive, effortless skater I've ever seen (think Karlsson) and his hockey sense and playmaking ability rank among the best I've ever seen (think Datsyuk). He's a weapons-grade point-producer. The only concern I have with him is the lack of "physicality" in his game. But he's good enough that I don't think it really matters, especially if you assume he's going to be a winger.

I don't think Kakko going 1st overall is completely out of the question, but I don't think he's better than or equal to Hughes. Possibly more NHL-ready, certainly bigger and more physically imposing, but not better. It's weird to me that people would have concerns about Hughes' game at a time when players like Gaudreau and Marner and DeBrincat are thriving. Then again, I get the sense the "ACKSHUALLY, Kakko is every bit as good as Hughes" narrative is coming from Canadian outlets like Sportsnet. Because controversy sells and Canadian hockey media can't help itself.

tl;dr Kakko is a top checkers players, Hughes is a chess prodigy. That being said, I'd be deliriously happy with Hughes or Kakko.

Edited by Dabura

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45 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Tanking for the best odds in the draft lottery, vs. Relying on luck, letting the balls fall where they may...

2 years ago (2016-17), we finished the season with 79 points, 25th in the league. All three of the bottom feeders (Colorado, Vancouver and Arizona) got bounced out of the top three draft slots. New Jersey won the number one pick with 9 less points than us. Philadelphia won the number two pick with 9 more points than us. Dallas won the number three pick with the same number of points as us (more ROW).

So basically, if we had earned one extra point in any of the 82 games that season, we would have picked 3rd instead of 9th. We would have had our pick between Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Elias Pettersson, Cody Glass, etc. Instead, all of those players were gone and we picked Michael Rasmussen.

I remember reading an article after that draft that two teams other than Vancouver were really high on Pettersson. One of those teams was the Detroit Red Wings. Imagine how much different this team would look right now with Elias Pettersson instead of Michael Rasmussen... Or how about a future top pair of Heiskanen - Hronek...

Luck... Let's hope it's on our side this year...

Re: 2017 -- I remember reading somewhere that the Wings missed moving up to 3rd by one digit. So, like, I guess the winning four-digit sequence for 3rd overall was *that frking close* to one of ours.

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